2021 NFL PAL Rating and Value Rating: performance and contract value

Two scores from 0 to 100. PAL Rating measures the season's performance against regulars at the same position (quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, offensive line, interior defensive line, edge rushers, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties, kickers, punters): 50 is the median regular. Salary never enters it. Value Rating answers a different question: for what the player costs, does the return come in more or less than expected?

WAR, in wins →Payrolls →

Top quarterback

98PALAaron RodgersGB · Elite Top running back

99PALJonathan TaylorIND · Elite Top receiver

99PALCooper KuppLAR · Elite Top edge rusher

99PALT.J. WattPIT · Elite Top linebacker

100PALMicah ParsonsDAL · Elite Top cornerback

99PALRasul DouglasGB · Elite

Value Rating is only computed for the most recent season.

The scale — PAL Rating

90–100 Elite
80–89 Excellent
70–79 Very good
60–69 Above average
40–59 Around average
20–39 Below average
0–19 Very poor

The scale — Value Rating

90–100 Exceptional value
75–89 Very good contract
55–74 Good value
45–54 Fair value
25–44 Poor return
0–24 Very poor return

Regulars only

#	Player
1	Aaron RodgersGB · QB · 37	98	2.9	95	89	95	68	74
2	Patrick MahomesKC · QB · 25	95	3.4	98	59	89	80	86
3	Josh AllenBUF · QB · 25	92	3.1	86	47	80	83	98
4	Justin HerbertLAC · QB · 23	89	3.0	83	68	77	77	89
5	Tom BradyTB · QB · 44	86	3.2	92	44	98	53	47
6	Joe BurrowCIN · QB · 24	83	2.1	77	98	14	95	71
7	Kyler MurrayARI · QB · 24	80	1.7	74	92	59	89	59
8	Dak PrescottDAL · QB · 28	77	2.3	80	80	86	47	5
9	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB · 23	74	1.5	50	65	71	50	95
10	Matthew StaffordLAR · QB · 33	71	2.6	89	35	44	92	38
11	Teddy BridgewaterDEN · QB · 28	68	1.4	68	86	62	32	77
12	Kirk CousinsMIN · QB · 33	65	1.6	53	50	92	62	20
13	Jimmy GaroppoloSF · QB · 29	62	1.8	71	95	32	11	29
14	Tua TagovailoaMIA · QB · 23	59	0.7	59	74	53	86	14
15	Ryan TannehillTEN · QB · 33	56	1.3	65	83	23	26	92
16	Mac JonesNE · QB · 22	53	1.1	62	53	50	29	26
17	Russell WilsonSEA · QB · 32	50	0.6	44	56	56	98	44
18	Derek CarrLV · QB · 30	47	0.9	47	71	47	59	17
19	Carson WentzIND · QB · 28	44	0.7	41	20	83	74	80
20	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB · 24	41	1.0	56	29	11	44	83
21	Matt RyanATL · QB · 36	38	-0.1	38	77	38	65	8
22	Daniel JonesNYG · QB · 24	35	0.2	29	32	68	38	65
23	Jared GoffDET · QB · 26	32	-0.4	32	62	65	14	2
24	Jacoby BrissettMIA · QB · 28	29	-0.2	23	26	41	41	32
25	Taylor HeinickeWAS · QB · 28	26	-0.1	26	41	26	23	41
26	Baker MayfieldCLE · QB · 26	23	0.1	35	11	8	56	53
27	Ben RoethlisbergerPIT · QB · 39	20	-0.3	8	23	74	8	23
28	Davis MillsHOU · QB · 22	17	-0.7	11	38	29	35	11
29	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB · 21	14	-0.4	17	5	35	17	68
30	Andy DaltonCHI · QB · 33	11	-0.3	20	17	20	5	35
31	Justin FieldsCHI · QB · 22	8	-0.7	14	14	2	71	62
32	Sam DarnoldCAR · QB · 24	5	-0.9	5	8	17	2	56
33	Zach WilsonNYJ · QB · 22	2	-1.3	2	2	5	20	50

How it's calculated

Like the NHL and the NBA: at each position, the line linking latent PAL (the standard score, before the percentile) to the log of the contract's average per year gives the level expected for that salary; the gap to the expected level becomes the Value Rating, 0 to 100. Average per year rather than the season's cap number: the cap number swings too much with contract structure (prorated bonuses, restructures). The line is fitted on veterans only: rookie contracts, set by draft slot, would skew the market price, so rookies come out on top. Each position has its own market: an average quarterback costs more than an excellent running back. Early in the season, Value Rating judges the last complete season against today's contract.

Data: nflverse, Pro Football Reference and NFL Next Gen Stats; salaries updated daily.