2026 NFL trends: who is rising, who is declining
The trend compares WAR per game with last season's: only what was observed. The outlook adds age. The projection follows the pace of the last three seasons: during the season, it projects the rest of it; once the season is over, the next one, adjusted for age. It is only a projection.
Season in progress: 4 weeks of games. While the season is young, samples are small and rankings move a lot from week to week; the regulars threshold is prorated to the weeks played.
| # | Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geno SmithNYJ · QB · 35 | +24 | -6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 17 | 35 |
| 2 | Brock PurdySF · QB · 26 | +24 | +34 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 17 | 26 |
| 3 | Lamar JacksonBAL · QB · 29 | +17 | +17 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 17 | 29 |
| 4 | Bryce YoungCAR · QB · 25 | +14 | +24 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 17 | 25 |
| 5 | Jacoby BrissettARI · QB · 33 | +13 | -17 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 17 | 33 |
| 6 | Josh AllenBUF · QB · 30 | +12 | -3 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 17 | 30 |
| 7 | Dak PrescottDAL · QB · 33 | +11 | -19 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 17 | 33 |
| 8 | Kirk CousinsLV · QB · 38 | +11 | -19 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 17 | 38 |
| 9 | Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB · 24 | +10 | +35 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 11 | 24 |
| 10 | Cam WardTEN · QB · 24 | +9 | +34 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17 | 24 |
| 11 | Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB · 26 | +8 | +18 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 17 | 26 |
| 12 | Jared GoffDET · QB · 31 | +7 | -8 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 17 | 31 |
| 13 | Jayden DanielsWAS · QB · 25 | +7 | +17 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 11 | 25 |
| 14 | Patrick MahomesKC · QB · 30 | +3 | -12 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 17 | 30 |
| 15 | Tyler ShoughNO · QB · 26 | +3 | +13 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 17 | 26 |
| 16 | Joe BurrowCIN · QB · 29 | +3 | +3 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 17 | 29 |
| 17 | Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB · 30 | 0 | -15 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 17 | 30 |
| 18 | Jalen HurtsPHI · QB · 28 | -5 | -5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 17 | 28 |
| 19 | C.J. StroudHOU · QB · 24 | -9 | +16 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 17 | 24 |
| 20 | Matthew StaffordLAR · QB · 38 | -11 | -41 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 17 | 38 |
| 21 | Justin HerbertLAC · QB · 28 | -15 | -15 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 17 | 28 |
| 22 | Bo NixDEN · QB · 26 | -15 | -5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 17 | 26 |
| 23 | Aaron RodgersPIT · QB · 42 | -17 | -47 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 17 | 42 |
| 24 | Malik WillisMIA · QB · 27 | -18 | -8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 17 | 27 |
| 25 | Jordan LoveGB · QB · 27 | -21 | -11 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 17 | 27 |
| 26 | Daniel JonesIND · QB · 29 | -23 | -23 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 17 | 29 |
| 27 | Baker MayfieldTB · QB · 31 | -27 | -42 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 17 | 31 |
| 28 | Drake MayeNE · QB · 24 | -31 | -6 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 17 | 24 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
Trend = gap in WAR per game × 17 × 25 × reliability (games ÷ (games + 8), over the shorter of the two seasons), capped at ±100. Outlook = trend + age points: +25 through 24, +10 through 27, 0 through 29, −15 through 31, −30 after.
Projection: WAR per game over the last three seasons (60%, 25%, 15%), pulled toward the group's regular pace as if five more games. During the season: the WAR already earned, plus that pace over the games left, by his availability so far. Season over: 17 games scaled by availability (60% this season, 40% the last), then age, from ×1.06 at 24 and under to ×0.85 past 33.
Data: nflverse, Pro Football Reference and Next Gen Stats. PickALeague calculations.