2023 NFL PAL Rating and Value Rating: performance and contract value

Two scores from 0 to 100. PAL Rating measures the season's performance against regulars at the same position (quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, offensive line, interior defensive line, edge rushers, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties, kickers, punters): 50 is the median regular. Salary never enters it. Value Rating answers a different question: for what the player costs, does the return come in more or less than expected?

WAR, in wins →Payrolls →

Top quarterback

98PALBrock PurdySF · Elite Top running back

99PALDe'Von AchaneMIA · Elite Top receiver

99PALBrandon AiyukSF · Elite Top edge rusher

99PALT.J. WattPIT · Elite Top linebacker

99PALMicah ParsonsDAL · Elite Top cornerback

99PALDerek Stingley Jr.HOU · Elite

Value Rating is only computed for the most recent season.

The scale — PAL Rating

90–100 Elite
80–89 Excellent
70–79 Very good
60–69 Above average
40–59 Around average
20–39 Below average
0–19 Very poor

The scale — Value Rating

90–100 Exceptional value
75–89 Very good contract
55–74 Good value
45–54 Fair value
25–44 Poor return
0–24 Very poor return

Regulars only

#	Player
1	Brock PurdySF · QB · 23	98	3.4	98	71	38	98	65
2	Dak PrescottDAL · QB · 30	95	3.3	95	98	80	89	74
3	Josh AllenBUF · QB · 27	92	3.3	92	86	41	50	98
4	Patrick MahomesKC · QB · 27	89	2.2	77	80	74	11	95
5	Tua TagovailoaMIA · QB · 25	86	2.3	89	83	50	86	2
6	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB · 26	83	1.9	83	62	65	65	62
7	Kirk CousinsMIN · QB · 35	80	0.8	59	95	86	59	41
8	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB · 25	77	2.3	65	77	26	68	89
9	Jared GoffDET · QB · 28	74	2.0	86	68	77	44	17
10	Jordan LoveGB · QB · 24	71	2.4	80	53	83	71	32
11	C.J. StroudHOU · QB · 21	68	1.8	71	26	95	95	47
12	Jake BrowningCIN · QB · 27	65	1.0	74	92	11	53	68
13	Geno SmithSEA · QB · 32	62	1.4	68	65	68	56	26
14	Derek CarrNO · QB · 32	59	1.2	50	74	98	74	11
15	Justin HerbertLAC · QB · 25	56	1.2	56	47	92	41	59
16	Baker MayfieldTB · QB · 28	53	1.7	53	50	62	47	56
17	Matthew StaffordLAR · QB · 35	50	1.7	62	8	59	83	50
18	Russell WilsonDEN · QB · 34	47	0.4	29	89	32	38	86
19	Joe BurrowCIN · QB · 26	44	0.6	47	59	71	14	29
20	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB · 23	41	0.7	44	32	44	80	44
21	Kyler MurrayARI · QB · 26	38	0.5	35	38	56	5	71
22	Gardner MinshewIND · QB · 27	35	0.7	38	17	53	29	38
23	Justin FieldsCHI · QB · 24	32	0.4	20	41	8	77	92
24	Will LevisTEN · QB · 24	29	0.2	32	20	29	92	20
25	Desmond RidderATL · QB · 24	26	-0.1	41	44	14	62	8
26	Kenny PickettPIT · QB · 25	23	-0.2	17	11	89	23	53
27	Aidan O'ConnellLV · QB · 25	20	0.1	26	5	47	26	23
28	Joshua DobbsMIN · QB · 28	17	-0.3	14	14	35	35	77
29	Ryan TannehillTEN · QB · 35	14	0.0	23	56	5	32	35
30	Sam HowellWAS · QB · 22	11	-0.6	8	35	2	20	80
31	Mac JonesNE · QB · 24	8	-0.6	11	23	20	2	14
32	Bryce YoungCAR · QB · 22	5	-1.8	2	2	23	8	83
33	Zach WilsonNYJ · QB · 24	2	-1.6	5	29	17	17	5

How it's calculated

Like the NHL and the NBA: at each position, the line linking latent PAL (the standard score, before the percentile) to the log of the contract's average per year gives the level expected for that salary; the gap to the expected level becomes the Value Rating, 0 to 100. Average per year rather than the season's cap number: the cap number swings too much with contract structure (prorated bonuses, restructures). The line is fitted on veterans only: rookie contracts, set by draft slot, would skew the market price, so rookies come out on top. Each position has its own market: an average quarterback costs more than an excellent running back. Early in the season, Value Rating judges the last complete season against today's contract.

Data: nflverse, Pro Football Reference and NFL Next Gen Stats; salaries updated daily.