2024 NFL PAL Rating and Value Rating: performance and contract value

Two scores from 0 to 100. PAL Rating measures the season's performance against regulars at the same position (quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, offensive line, interior defensive line, edge rushers, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties, kickers, punters): 50 is the median regular. Salary never enters it. Value Rating answers a different question: for what the player costs, does the return come in more or less than expected?

WAR, in wins →Payrolls →

Top quarterback

99PALLamar JacksonBAL · Elite Top running back

99PALDerrick HenryBAL · Elite Top receiver

99PALPuka NacuaLAR · Elite Top edge rusher

99PALTrey HendricksonCIN · Elite Top linebacker

100PALEdgerrin CooperGB · Elite Top cornerback

99PALByron MurphyMIN · Elite

Value Rating is only computed for the most recent season.

The scale — PAL Rating

90–100 Elite
80–89 Excellent
70–79 Very good
60–69 Above average
40–59 Around average
20–39 Below average
0–19 Very poor

The scale — Value Rating

90–100 Exceptional value
75–89 Very good contract
55–74 Good value
45–54 Fair value
25–44 Poor return
0–24 Very poor return

Regulars only

#	Player
1	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB · 27	99	3.8	99	83	96	76	63
2	Josh AllenBUF · QB · 28	96	3.8	94	42	99	78	96
3	Jared GoffDET · QB · 29	94	3.3	96	91	63	91	42
4	Joe BurrowCIN · QB · 27	91	2.5	86	99	71	53	65
5	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB · 26	88	1.9	76	94	55	88	94
6	Tua TagovailoaMIA · QB · 26	86	1.9	91	88	78	24	32
7	Jayden DanielsWAS · QB · 23	83	2.7	78	78	45	65	99
8	Baker MayfieldTB · QB · 29	81	2.7	88	86	37	45	53
9	Brock PurdySF · QB · 24	78	2.2	83	65	47	83	81
10	Patrick MahomesKC · QB · 28	76	2.4	81	58	68	14	91
11	Justin HerbertLAC · QB · 26	73	1.8	65	73	88	86	60
12	Kyler MurrayARI · QB · 27	71	1.7	73	81	73	12	68
13	Sam DarnoldMIN · QB · 27	68	1.1	68	76	35	99	29
14	Derek CarrNO · QB · 33	65	1.0	60	68	94	40	22
15	Jordan LoveGB · QB · 25	63	1.5	71	37	76	81	50
16	Bo NixDEN · QB · 24	60	1.5	47	50	83	35	86
17	Geno SmithSEA · QB · 33	58	0.6	53	96	19	73	24
18	Matthew StaffordLAR · QB · 36	55	1.1	63	27	81	58	40
19	Russell WilsonPIT · QB · 35	53	0.1	35	60	50	96	27
20	Drake MayeNE · QB · 22	50	0.2	50	55	12	42	78
21	Kirk CousinsATL · QB · 36	47	0.5	58	63	17	55	6
22	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB · 24	45	0.3	40	32	60	71	55
23	Mason RudolphTEN · QB · 29	42	0.3	55	40	24	37	47
24	Aidan O'ConnellLV · QB · 26	40	0.2	42	9	86	63	14
25	Daniel JonesNYG · QB · 27	37	-0.2	17	71	42	27	76
26	Aaron RodgersNYJ · QB · 40	35	0.6	37	22	65	50	35
27	Joe FlaccoIND · QB · 39	32	0.1	45	47	32	32	12
28	Bryce YoungCAR · QB · 23	29	0.1	22	19	53	68	71
29	Mac JonesJAX · QB · 25	27	0.2	32	35	58	4	37
30	Dak PrescottDAL · QB · 31	24	0.0	27	24	29	47	45
31	Jameis WinstonCLE · QB · 30	22	0.0	24	17	4	29	73
32	C.J. StroudHOU · QB · 22	19	0.1	29	14	22	22	17
33	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB · 22	17	-0.3	14	12	40	9	58
34	Gardner MinshewLV · QB · 28	14	-0.7	19	53	6	6	9
35	Cooper RushDAL · QB · 30	12	-0.5	12	4	91	17	4
36	Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB · 28	9	-0.9	4	45	14	19	19
37	Anthony RichardsonIND · QB · 22	6	-0.1	9	1	9	60	88
38	Spencer RattlerNO · QB · 23	4	-1.1	1	6	27	1	83
39	Will LevisTEN · QB · 25	1	-1.1	6	29	1	94	1

How it's calculated

Like the NHL and the NBA: at each position, the line linking latent PAL (the standard score, before the percentile) to the log of the contract's average per year gives the level expected for that salary; the gap to the expected level becomes the Value Rating, 0 to 100. Average per year rather than the season's cap number: the cap number swings too much with contract structure (prorated bonuses, restructures). The line is fitted on veterans only: rookie contracts, set by draft slot, would skew the market price, so rookies come out on top. Each position has its own market: an average quarterback costs more than an excellent running back. Early in the season, Value Rating judges the last complete season against today's contract.

Data: nflverse, Pro Football Reference and NFL Next Gen Stats; salaries updated daily.