2022 NFL PAL Rating and Value Rating: performance and contract value

Two scores from 0 to 100. PAL Rating measures the season's performance against regulars at the same position (quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, offensive line, interior defensive line, edge rushers, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties, kickers, punters): 50 is the median regular. Salary never enters it. Value Rating answers a different question: for what the player costs, does the return come in more or less than expected?

WAR, in wins →Payrolls →

Top quarterback

98PALPatrick MahomesKC · Elite Top running back

99PALNick ChubbCLE · Elite Top receiver

99PALJaylen WaddleMIA · Elite Top edge rusher

99PALNick BosaSF · Elite Top linebacker

99PALDenzel PerrymanLV · Elite Top cornerback

99PALRiq WoolenSEA · Elite

Value Rating is only computed for the most recent season.

The scale — PAL Rating

90–100 Elite
80–89 Excellent
70–79 Very good
60–69 Above average
40–59 Around average
20–39 Below average
0–19 Very poor

The scale — Value Rating

90–100 Exceptional value
75–89 Very good contract
55–74 Good value
45–54 Fair value
25–44 Poor return
0–24 Very poor return

Regulars only

#	Player
1	Patrick MahomesKC · QB · 26	98	4.6	98	89	89	80	83
2	Josh AllenBUF · QB · 26	95	3.5	95	47	59	95	92
3	Tua TagovailoaMIA · QB · 24	92	2.0	92	65	77	98	23
4	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB · 24	89	2.3	77	86	74	86	95
5	Joe BurrowCIN · QB · 25	86	2.5	86	92	65	74	74
6	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB · 22	83	2.2	83	71	92	38	17
7	Daniel JonesNYG · QB · 25	80	1.5	71	95	71	41	86
8	Jared GoffDET · QB · 27	77	2.3	80	26	95	62	11
9	Geno SmithSEA · QB · 31	74	1.0	68	98	56	89	56
10	Jimmy GaroppoloSF · QB · 30	71	1.4	89	38	83	5	26
11	Jacoby BrissettCLE · QB · 29	68	1.1	62	83	80	50	80
12	Tom BradyTB · QB · 45	65	1.4	59	53	98	14	2
13	Justin HerbertLAC · QB · 24	62	1.2	47	74	86	32	62
14	Kirk CousinsMIN · QB · 34	59	1.1	56	68	47	71	38
15	Dak PrescottDAL · QB · 29	56	1.2	74	41	23	83	53
16	Andy DaltonNO · QB · 34	53	0.5	53	77	50	29	20
17	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB · 25	50	1.2	50	32	41	11	89
18	Ryan TannehillTEN · QB · 34	47	0.7	65	59	32	44	47
19	Aaron RodgersGB · QB · 38	44	0.4	38	80	62	35	35
20	Kenny PickettPIT · QB · 24	41	0.6	41	29	53	23	68
21	Kyler MurrayARI · QB · 25	38	0.5	32	62	68	2	77
22	Taylor HeinickeWAS · QB · 29	35	-0.1	29	44	38	68	14
23	Derek CarrLV · QB · 31	32	0.9	35	14	44	77	41
24	Marcus MariotaATL · QB · 28	29	0.5	44	20	11	26	65
25	Mac JonesNE · QB · 23	26	-0.1	17	50	35	17	44
26	Matthew StaffordLAR · QB · 34	23	-0.2	26	35	20	8	29
27	Matt RyanIND · QB · 37	20	-0.5	23	56	26	53	5
28	Russell WilsonDEN · QB · 33	17	-0.2	8	23	8	92	71
29	Justin FieldsCHI · QB · 23	14	0.3	20	17	2	47	98
30	Carson WentzWAS · QB · 29	11	-0.3	11	11	5	56	59
31	Zach WilsonNYJ · QB · 23	8	-0.3	14	2	17	20	50
32	Davis MillsHOU · QB · 23	5	-0.7	5	8	29	65	32
33	Baker MayfieldLAR · QB · 27	2	-0.7	2	5	14	59	8

How it's calculated

Like the NHL and the NBA: at each position, the line linking latent PAL (the standard score, before the percentile) to the log of the contract's average per year gives the level expected for that salary; the gap to the expected level becomes the Value Rating, 0 to 100. Average per year rather than the season's cap number: the cap number swings too much with contract structure (prorated bonuses, restructures). The line is fitted on veterans only: rookie contracts, set by draft slot, would skew the market price, so rookies come out on top. Each position has its own market: an average quarterback costs more than an excellent running back. Early in the season, Value Rating judges the last complete season against today's contract.

Data: nflverse, Pro Football Reference and NFL Next Gen Stats; salaries updated daily.