2024 MLS WAR: the wins every player adds
WAR — wins above replacement — says how many wins a player adds to his team over a replacement player. MLS publishes none: ours starts from American Soccer Analysis goals added (g+), the value in goals of each of a player's actions, turned into standings points, then wins.
Caveat: a goalkeeper's WAR rests mostly on his saves against post-shot expected goals, a measure that varies a lot from season to season. A single goalkeeper season should be read with care; the ratings, over four seasons, are steadier.
| # | Player | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kristijan KahlinaCLT · GK · 31 | 3.4 | 15.9 | 99 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.01 | 0.86 | 3471 |
| 2 | Matt FreeseNYC · GK · 25 | 2.6 | 12.1 | 96 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.51 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.85 | 3420 |
| 3 | Roman BürkiSTL · GK · 33 | 2.4 | 11.1 | 93 | 0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.52 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.12 | 0.03 | 0.80 | 3227 |
| 4 | Steve ClarkHOU · GK · 38 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 87 | -0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.41 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.77 | 3118 |
| 5 | Riqui PuigLA · CM · 24 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 99 | 0.76 | -0.02 | 0.63 | 0.35 | -0.15 | 0.14 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.26 | 2874 |
| 6 | Brad StuverATX · GK · 33 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 90 | 0.19 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.66 | 0.11 | -0.06 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.86 | 3472 |
| 7 | John McCarthyLA · GK · 31 | 1.7 | 7.8 | 81 | -0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.72 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.81 | 3268 |
| 8 | Christian BentekeDC · ST · 33 | 1.5 | 7.1 | 96 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 0.02 | 0.19 | -0.09 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.22 | 2958 |
| 9 | Gabriel PecLA · W · 23 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 96 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.37 | -0.09 | -0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3061 |
| 10 | Dénis BouangaLAFC · W · 29 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 95 | -0.02 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 0.07 | 0.22 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3074 |
| 11 | Cucho HernándezCLB · ST · 25 | 1.4 | 6.8 | 99 | 0.53 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.07 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 2369 |
| 12 | Hugo LlorisLAFC · GK · 37 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 72 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.44 | 0.04 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.83 | 3336 |
| 13 | Dayne St. ClairMIN · GK · 27 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 75 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.54 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.66 | 2653 |
| 14 | Luciano AcostaCIN · AM · 30 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 99 | 0.36 | -0.08 | 0.66 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3068 |
| 15 | Lionel MessiMIA · W · 37 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 98 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.34 | -0.08 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.10 | 1690 |
| 16 | Federico BernardeschiTOR · FB · 30 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 98 | -0.05 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.15 | 2765 |
| 17 | Brad GuzanATL · GK · 39 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 69 | 0.14 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.27 | 0.04 | -0.13 | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.80 | 3250 |
| 18 | Yohei TakaokaVAN · GK · 28 | 1.0 | 4.6 | 60 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.14 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.82 | 3327 |
| 19 | Drake CallenderMIA · GK · 26 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 63 | -0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | -0.05 | 0.12 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.81 | 3273 |
| 20 | Luca OrellanoCIN · FB · 24 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 93 | -0.02 | 0.17 | 0.49 | 0.28 | -0.03 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2905 |
| 21 | Oliver SemmlePHI · GK · 26 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 78 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.43 | 0.02 | -0.05 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.40 | 1633 |
| 22 | Kai WagnerPHI · FB · 27 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 99 | 0.51 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.15 | 0.12 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3290 |
| 23 | Robin LodMIN · CM · 31 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 98 | 0.65 | -0.13 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.24 | 2669 |
| 24 | EvanderPOR · AM · 26 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 97 | 0.56 | 0.07 | -0.06 | 0.15 | -0.02 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2780 |
| 25 | Jonathan RodríguezPOR · W · 30 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 84 | -0.06 | 0.57 | 0.07 | 0.27 | -0.09 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2723 |
| 26 | Jordan MorrisSEA · ST · 29 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 76 | -0.08 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 0.02 | -0.14 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.23 | 3084 |
| 27 | Andre BlakePHI · GK · 33 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 84 | -0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.40 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.30 | 1231 |
| 28 | Stefan FreiSEA · GK · 38 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 66 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.23 | 0.04 | -0.03 | -0.07 | -0.04 | 0.68 | 2756 |
| 29 | Patrick SchulteCLB · GK · 23 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 57 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.23 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.68 | 2766 |
| 30 | Timothy TillmanLAFC · CM · 25 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 97 | 0.22 | -0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.25 | 2768 |
| 31 | Santiago RodríguezNYC · AM · 24 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 85 | 0.50 | -0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3172 |
| 32 | Saba LobjanidzeATL · W · 29 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 66 | -0.21 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2728 |
| 33 | Felipe MoraPOR · ST · 30 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 89 | -0.18 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.13 | -0.09 | 0.11 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2109 |
| 34 | William AgadaSKC · ST · 24 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 90 | -0.15 | 0.77 | -0.22 | 0.21 | 0.04 | -0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.15 | 1947 |
| 35 | Aaron HerreraDC · FB · 27 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 94 | 0.30 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 2982 |
| 36 | Cole BassettCOL · DM · 22 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 81 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.17 | -0.19 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.26 | 2896 |
| 37 | Cristian OliveraLAFC · W · 22 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 76 | -0.07 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.07 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.11 | 1866 |
| 38 | Andrés GómezRSL · W · 21 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 94 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.22 | -0.02 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.12 | 2018 |
| 39 | Luis SuárezMIA · ST · 37 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 97 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.24 | -0.07 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2165 |
| 40 | Maarten PaesDAL · GK · 26 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 46 | -0.11 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.10 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.09 | -0.02 | 0.76 | 3078 |
| 41 | Joseph RosalesMIN · FB · 23 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 96 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.20 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.15 | 2680 |
| 42 | Héctor HerreraHOU · DM · 34 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 93 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.04 | -0.11 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 1807 |
| 43 | Mark DelgadoLA · CM · 29 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 96 | 0.24 | -0.07 | 0.07 | -0.08 | 0.20 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.25 | 2759 |
| 44 | Sergio BusquetsMIA · DM · 35 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 91 | 0.33 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.09 | 0.29 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.25 | 2834 |
| 45 | Cristian RoldanSEA · DM · 29 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 88 | 0.12 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.04 | 0.21 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.28 | 3174 |
| 46 | Thiago AlmadaATL · AM · 23 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 89 | 0.33 | -0.09 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.09 | 1580 |
| 47 | Lewis MorganRBNY · ST · 27 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 80 | 0.36 | -0.21 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -0.13 | 0.11 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.20 | 2717 |
| 48 | Patrick AgyemangCLT · ST · 23 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 73 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2070 |
| 49 | Cristian ArangoRSL · ST · 29 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 94 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.08 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.19 | 2571 |
| 50 | Walker ZimmermanNSH · CB · 31 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.02 | 2155 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
Goals added: every on-ball action (passing, receiving, dribbling, shooting, interrupting, fouling; for a goalkeeper, shot stopping, claiming, sweeping, handling, distribution) changes the probability that the team scores or concedes. American Soccer Analysis sums it, in goals, above the position average.
Replacement: the position average is not the right zero. We measure the per-minute output of bench players in each position group (300 to 1,000 minutes over the season, prorated to games played); every player is credited with the gap between the average and that level, by his minutes (the “Repl.” column).
Conversion: 0.636 standings point per goal of differential (the regression of points per game on goal differential per game, every season since 2021), then 3 points = 1 win, a win's value in the standings.
Data: American Soccer Analysis (goals added, xG, xPass) and ESPN. PickALeague calculations.