2026 MLS trends: who is rising, who is declining

The trend compares WAR per 3,000 minutes with last season's: only what was observed. The outlook adds age. The projection estimates next season's WAR from the last three seasons, adjusted for age. It is only a projection.

Season in progress: 28 games at most per team, out of 34. Minute thresholds (regulars, replacement) are prorated to games played; until the season ends, rankings can still move.

Regulars only

#	Player
1	Jonathan BondHOU · GK · 33	+35	+5	0.3	-0.1	3062	33
2	DanielSJ · GK · 32	+34	+19	1.3	0.6	2473	32
3	Hugo LlorisLAFC · GK · 39	+28	-2	1.1	0.6	3035	39
4	Andrew ThomasSEA · GK · 27	+25	+25	2.0	1.0	2307	27
5	Brad StuverATX · GK · 35	+23	-7	2.1	1.4	3100	35
6	Yohei TakaokaVAN · GK · 30	+19	+4	1.1	0.7	3100	30
7	Jonathan SiroisDAL · GK · 25	+17	+27	0.2	0.1	1733	25
8	Zavier GozoRSL · FB · 19	+15	+40	0.5	0.2	1983	19
9	Telasco SegoviaMIA · CM · 23	+15	+40	0.4	0.2	2212	23
10	Emil ForsbergRBNY · CM · 34	+14	-16	0.5	0.3	2674	34
11	Griffin DorseyORL · FB · 27	+12	+12	0.5	0.3	2592	27
12	Marcel HartelSTL · AM · 30	+12	-3	0.6	0.3	2481	30
13	Mohammed SofoRBNY · CM · 21	+11	+36	0.1	0.0	1411	21
14	Alhassan YusufNE · DM · 25	+11	+21	0.4	0.2	2816	25
15	Philip ZinckernagelCHI · W · 31	+11	-4	0.6	0.3	2736	31
16	Petar MusaDAL · ST · 28	+11	+11	0.9	0.6	2453	28
17	Kévin DenkeyCIN · ST · 25	+11	+21	0.4	0.2	2586	25
18	Mikkel DeslerATX · FB · 31	+10	-5	0.3	0.1	1476	31
19	Matty LongstaffMTL · CM · 26	+10	+20	0.5	0.3	2335	26
20	Rodrigo de PaulMIA · CM · 32	+10	-5	1.0	0.5	2060	32
21	Kevin KelsyPOR · ST · 21	+10	+35	0.0	0.0	1722	21
22	Kye RowlesDC · CB · 28	+9	+9	0.5	0.3	2675	28
23	Édier OcampoVAN · FB · 22	+9	+34	0.4	0.3	2477	22
24	Ilie SánchezATX · CM · 35	+9	-21	0.2	0.1	1657	35
25	Tyrese SpicerORL · W · 25	+9	+19	0.2	0.1	1273	25
26	Jefferson DíazMIN · CB · 25	+8	+18	0.3	0.2	2419	25
27	Henry KesslerCLT · CB · 28	+8	+8	0.5	0.2	1439	28
28	Lucas BartlettDC · CB · 28	+8	+8	0.5	0.3	3016	28
29	Mamadou FofanaNE · CB · 28	+8	+8	0.3	0.2	3057	28
30	Finn SurmanPOR · CB · 22	+8	+33	0.6	0.4	3100	22
31	Ian FrayMIA · FB · 23	+8	+33	0.4	0.2	1726	23
32	Jesús BuenoPHI · CM · 27	+8	+8	0.1	0.1	1146	27
33	Hugo CuypersCHI · ST · 29	+8	+8	0.5	0.4	2074	29
34	Ryan PorteousLAFC · CB · 27	+7	+7	0.5	0.3	1961	27
35	Jaziel OrozcoSTL · CB · 22	+7	+32	0.0	0.0	1267	22
36	Jalen NealMTL · CB · 22	+7	+32	0.2	0.1	1385	22
37	Kyle DuncanMIN · FB · 28	+7	+7	0.3	0.2	2032	28
38	Frankie WestfieldPHI · FB · 20	+7	+32	0.5	0.3	2342	20
39	Nathan ByrneCLT · FB · 34	+7	-23	0.0	0.0	2172	34
40	Jimer ForyPOR · FB · 24	+7	+17	0.3	0.2	2618	24
41	Ashley WestwoodCLT · DM · 36	+7	-23	0.4	0.3	2969	36
42	Brooklyn RainesNE · DM · 21	+7	+32	0.1	0.1	2500	21
43	Peyton MillerNE · W · 18	+7	+32	0.5	0.3	2284	18
44	Jonathan BambaCHI · W · 30	+7	-8	0.3	0.2	2101	30
45	Dejan JoveljicSEA · ST · 26	+7	+17	-0.3	-0.3	2936	26
46	Logan FarringtonDAL · ST · 24	+7	+17	0.3	0.2	1827	24
47	Ethan BartlowSKC · CB · 26	+6	+16	0.3	0.2	1261	26
48	Oleksandr SvatokATX · CB · 31	+6	-9	-0.1	-0.1	2559	31
49	Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyRBNY · FB · 22	+6	+31	0.2	0.1	2081	22
50	Franco NegriHOU · FB · 31	+6	-9	0.1	0.0	932	31

How it's calculated

Trend = gap in WAR per 3,000 minutes × 25 × reliability (minutes ÷ (minutes + 1,500), over the shorter of the two seasons, at least 500 minutes in each), capped at ±100. Outlook = trend + age points: +25 through 23, +10 through 26, 0 through 29, −15 through 32, −30 after.

Projection, chosen on a backtest (2023 to 2026, 1,612 player-seasons): WAR per minute over the last three seasons (60%, 25%, 15%), pulled toward the group's pace as if 1,000 more minutes. Mean error: 0.24 wins, against 0.28 with the last season alone. Minutes: 60% this season's (scaled to 34 games), 40% last season's, 3,100 at most; then age, from ×1.08 at 22 and under to ×0.88 past 32.

Data: American Soccer Analysis (goals added, xG, xPass) and ESPN. PickALeague calculations.