2026 MLS WAR: the wins every player adds
WAR — wins above replacement — says how many wins a player adds to his team over a replacement player. MLS publishes none: ours starts from American Soccer Analysis goals added (g+), the value in goals of each of a player's actions, turned into standings points, then wins.
Season in progress: 28 games at most per team, out of 34. Minute thresholds (regulars, replacement) are prorated to games played; until the season ends, rankings can still move.
Caveat: a goalkeeper's WAR rests mostly on his saves against post-shot expected goals, a measure that varies a lot from season to season. A single goalkeeper season should be read with care; the ratings, over four seasons, are steadier.
| # | Player | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt TurnerNE · GK · 32 | 2.7 | 12.8 | 99 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | -0.01 | 0.09 | -0.05 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 2735 |
| 2 | Lionel MessiMIA · W · 39 | 2.2 | 10.5 | 99 | 0.74 | 0.16 | 0.91 | 0.59 | -0.15 | 0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.12 | 2402 |
| 3 | Brian SchwakeNSH · GK · 24 | 2.1 | 10.0 | 90 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.15 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 2639 |
| 4 | Brad StuverATX · GK · 35 | 2.1 | 10.1 | 96 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 2558 |
| 5 | Andrew ThomasSEA · GK · 27 | 2.0 | 9.6 | 84 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.11 | -0.02 | 0.03 | -0.15 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 2714 |
| 6 | JT MarcinkowskiLA · GK · 29 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 87 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.13 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 2213 |
| 7 | DanielSJ · GK · 32 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 93 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.31 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1840 |
| 8 | Yohei TakaokaVAN · GK · 30 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 81 | 0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.11 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 2511 |
| 9 | Hugo LlorisLAFC · GK · 39 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 76 | -0.12 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.39 | -0.10 | 0.05 | -0.15 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 2413 |
| 10 | James PantemisPOR · GK · 29 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 79 | -0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.89 | 0.02 | 0.11 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 2773 |
| 11 | Rodrigo de PaulMIA · CM · 32 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 99 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.28 | 2278 |
| 12 | Petar MusaDAL · ST · 28 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 99 | -0.03 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.07 | 1948 |
| 13 | Anthony MarkanichMIN · FB · 26 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 81 | -0.15 | 0.43 | -0.01 | 0.22 | -0.12 | 0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.20 | 2468 |
| 14 | Preston JuddSJ · ST · 27 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 87 | -0.02 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.15 | -0.03 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.07 | 1975 |
| 15 | Son Heung-MinLAFC · ST · 33 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 89 | 0.12 | -0.20 | 0.47 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.08 | 2240 |
| 16 | Matt FreeseNYC · GK · 27 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 53 | -0.17 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.88 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.17 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 2628 |
| 17 | Justin CheRBNY · CB · 22 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 97 | 0.21 | -0.02 | 0.16 | -0.01 | 0.17 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.07 | 1529 |
| 18 | Jackson RagenSEA · CB · 27 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 94 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.11 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.09 | 1900 |
| 19 | Finn SurmanPOR · CB · 22 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 98 | 0.04 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.42 | 0.11 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.12 | 2622 |
| 20 | Alonso CoelloTOR · DM · 26 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 98 | 0.38 | -0.15 | 0.12 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.27 | 2162 |
| 21 | Jeppe TverskovSD · DM · 33 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 97 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.05 | 0.15 | 0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.24 | 1946 |
| 22 | Marcel HartelSTL · AM · 30 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 94 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.05 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.08 | 1534 |
| 23 | Philip ZinckernagelCHI · W · 31 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 87 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.23 | -0.01 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.11 | 2239 |
| 24 | Gabriel PecLA · W · 25 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 93 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.07 | 1365 |
| 25 | Dénis BouangaLAFC · W · 31 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 96 | -0.06 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.19 | -0.09 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.12 | 2421 |
| 26 | Sergi SolansRSL · ST · 23 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 81 | -0.01 | 0.58 | -0.11 | 0.07 | 0.02 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.07 | 1911 |
| 27 | Kristijan KahlinaCLT · GK · 33 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 70 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.54 | -0.04 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 2755 |
| 28 | Ethan HorvathRBNY · GK · 31 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 67 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.44 | -0.09 | 0.15 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 2731 |
| 29 | Kye RowlesDC · CB · 28 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 92 | -0.03 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.09 | 2017 |
| 30 | Ryan PorteousLAFC · CB · 27 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 90 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.13 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.10 | 2181 |
| 31 | Henry KesslerCLT · CB · 28 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 99 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.36 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.05 | 1124 |
| 32 | Lucas BartlettDC · CB · 28 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 52 | -0.23 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.13 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.12 | 2534 |
| 33 | Frankie WestfieldPHI · FB · 20 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 95 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.06 | -0.08 | 0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 2142 |
| 34 | Griffin DorseyORL · FB · 27 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 80 | -0.22 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 1899 |
| 35 | Zavier GozoRSL · FB · 19 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 90 | -0.13 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.19 | -0.08 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.13 | 1610 |
| 36 | NouhouSEA · FB · 29 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 99 | -0.02 | -0.12 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 0.44 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.21 | 2565 |
| 37 | Emil ForsbergRBNY · CM · 34 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 81 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.15 | -0.18 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.24 | 1927 |
| 38 | Matty LongstaffMTL · CM · 26 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 83 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.05 | -0.10 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.28 | 2271 |
| 39 | Peyton MillerNE · W · 18 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 66 | -0.07 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.09 | 1882 |
| 40 | Anders DreyerSD · W · 28 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 95 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.17 | -0.13 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.13 | 2582 |
| 41 | Timo WernerSJ · W · 30 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 98 | 0.17 | -0.04 | 0.41 | 0.02 | -0.05 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.05 | 1109 |
| 42 | Cavan SullivanPHI · W · 16 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 88 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.09 | -0.07 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.08 | 1650 |
| 43 | EvanderCIN · AM · 28 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 97 | 0.50 | -0.20 | 0.33 | 0.16 | -0.18 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.11 | 2255 |
| 44 | Miguel AlmirónATL · W · 32 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 86 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.09 | 1890 |
| 45 | Carles GilNE · AM · 33 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 85 | 0.42 | -0.16 | 0.39 | 0.04 | -0.10 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.13 | 2690 |
| 46 | Antoine GriezmannORL · ST · 35 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 97 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.04 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.04 | 1107 |
| 47 | Hugo CuypersCHI · ST · 29 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 95 | -0.01 | 0.20 | -0.02 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.04 | 1135 |
| 48 | Sean JohnsonDC · GK · 37 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 56 | -0.12 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.63 | 0.05 | -0.01 | -0.19 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 2641 |
| 49 | Morrison AgyemangCLT · CB · 21 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 88 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.09 | 1816 |
| 50 | Manu DuahSD · CB · 21 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 93 | 0.26 | -0.11 | 0.05 | -0.04 | 0.14 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.12 | 2585 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
Goals added: every on-ball action (passing, receiving, dribbling, shooting, interrupting, fouling; for a goalkeeper, shot stopping, claiming, sweeping, handling, distribution) changes the probability that the team scores or concedes. American Soccer Analysis sums it, in goals, above the position average.
Replacement: the position average is not the right zero. We measure the per-minute output of bench players in each position group (300 to 1,000 minutes over the season, prorated to games played); every player is credited with the gap between the average and that level, by his minutes (the “Repl.” column).
Conversion: 0.636 standings point per goal of differential (the regression of points per game on goal differential per game, every season since 2021), then 3 points = 1 win, a win's value in the standings.
Data: American Soccer Analysis (goals added, xG, xPass) and ESPN. PickALeague calculations.