2023 MLS WAR: the wins every player adds
WAR — wins above replacement — says how many wins a player adds to his team over a replacement player. MLS publishes none: ours starts from American Soccer Analysis goals added (g+), the value in goals of each of a player's actions, turned into standings points, then wins.
Caveat: a goalkeeper's WAR rests mostly on his saves against post-shot expected goals, a measure that varies a lot from season to season. A single goalkeeper season should be read with care; the ratings, over four seasons, are steadier.
| # | Player | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman BürkiSTL · GK · 32 | 3.3 | 15.5 | 99 | 0.14 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.96 | -0.03 | 0.14 | -0.03 | -0.19 | 1.28 | 3296 |
| 2 | Brad StuverATX · GK · 32 | 2.4 | 11.5 | 84 | 0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.83 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1.33 | 3418 |
| 3 | DanielSJ · GK · 29 | 2.1 | 10.0 | 93 | -0.13 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.08 | 0.03 | 0.85 | 2168 |
| 4 | Đorđe PetrovićNE · GK · 23 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 96 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.85 | 2186 |
| 5 | Maarten PaesDAL · GK · 25 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 78 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.48 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 1.14 | 2916 |
| 6 | Andre BlakePHI · GK · 32 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 81 | -0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.89 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.06 | -0.04 | 1.04 | 2663 |
| 7 | Stefan FreiSEA · GK · 37 | 1.9 | 9.1 | 75 | -0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.65 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 1.24 | 3188 |
| 8 | Kristijan KahlinaCLT · GK · 30 | 1.8 | 8.5 | 87 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.60 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.95 | 2425 |
| 9 | Zac MacMathRSL · GK · 31 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 72 | 0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.38 | -0.01 | -0.17 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 1.07 | 2746 |
| 10 | Carlos CoronelRBNY · GK · 26 | 1.5 | 7.1 | 60 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1.34 | 3442 |
| 11 | Joe WillisNSH · GK · 34 | 1.5 | 7.3 | 69 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 1.25 | 3210 |
| 12 | Thiago AlmadaATL · AM · 22 | 1.5 | 7.1 | 99 | 0.72 | -0.11 | 0.43 | 0.21 | -0.07 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.32 | 3052 |
| 13 | Cucho HernándezCLB · ST · 24 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 99 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.49 | 0.07 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.19 | 2628 |
| 14 | Roman CelentanoCIN · GK · 22 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 40 | -0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.57 | -0.04 | -0.28 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 1.30 | 3332 |
| 15 | Riqui PuigLA · CM · 23 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 97 | 0.50 | -0.01 | 0.45 | 0.20 | -0.07 | 0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.24 | 2807 |
| 16 | Brian WhiteVAN · ST · 27 | 1.4 | 6.6 | 98 | -0.20 | 1.20 | -0.05 | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.21 | 2804 |
| 17 | Steve ClarkHOU · GK · 37 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 54 | -0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 1.30 | 3335 |
| 18 | Patrick SchulteCLB · GK · 22 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 57 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.12 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 1.22 | 3132 |
| 19 | Luciano AcostaCIN · AM · 29 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 98 | 0.66 | -0.05 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.31 | 2876 |
| 20 | Yohei TakaokaVAN · GK · 27 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 51 | -0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 1.29 | 3309 |
| 21 | Héctor HerreraHOU · CM · 33 | 1.2 | 5.8 | 100 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.24 | 2833 |
| 22 | Dénis BouangaLAFC · W · 28 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 96 | -0.20 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.34 | -0.04 | 0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.30 | 2815 |
| 23 | Chris BradyCHI · GK · 19 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 37 | -0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | -0.03 | 1.14 | 2933 |
| 24 | Bongokuhle HlongwaneMIN · W · 23 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 85 | -0.12 | 0.70 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.08 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.29 | 2716 |
| 25 | JT MarcinkowskiSJ · GK · 26 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 90 | -0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.56 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.04 | 0.01 | 0.49 | 1252 |
| 26 | Carles GilNE · AM · 30 | 1.0 | 4.9 | 95 | 0.36 | -0.12 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.31 | 2886 |
| 27 | Christian BentekeDC · ST · 32 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 91 | -0.12 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.23 | 3134 |
| 28 | Drake CallenderMIA · GK · 25 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 34 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.33 | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 1.30 | 3327 |
| 29 | Pedro GalleseORL · GK · 33 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 28 | -0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.15 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 1.18 | 3031 |
| 30 | Tim MeliaSKC · GK · 37 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 66 | -0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.38 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 0.01 | -0.09 | 0.61 | 1576 |
| 31 | Kai WagnerPHI · FB · 26 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 99 | 0.35 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.33 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 2744 |
| 32 | Gastón BrugmanLA · DM · 30 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 99 | 0.24 | -0.08 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 2102 |
| 33 | Emanuel ReynosoMIN · AM · 27 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 97 | 0.32 | -0.01 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 1478 |
| 34 | John McCarthyLAFC · GK · 30 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 25 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.19 | -0.06 | 0.08 | 0.03 | -0.07 | 0.98 | 2518 |
| 35 | William YarbroughCOL · GK · 34 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 49 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.07 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.78 | 1997 |
| 36 | Álvaro BarrealCIN · FB · 22 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 98 | 0.12 | 0.11 | -0.07 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.13 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.19 | 3112 |
| 37 | Richie LaryeaTOR · FB · 28 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 91 | -0.21 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.33 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 2798 |
| 38 | Hany MukhtarNSH · ST · 28 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 94 | 0.11 | -0.07 | 0.22 | 0.20 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.23 | 3147 |
| 39 | Jonathan SiroisMTL · GK · 22 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 31 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.66 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 | -0.02 | 1.24 | 3181 |
| 40 | RodriguesSJ · CB · 25 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 84 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.23 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3348 |
| 41 | Robin JanssonORL · CB · 31 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 97 | 0.09 | -0.10 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 0.39 | 0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 3221 |
| 42 | Michael BoxallMIN · CB · 34 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 96 | -0.07 | 0.12 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.36 | 0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 3134 |
| 43 | Steven MoreiraCLB · CB · 28 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 98 | 0.30 | -0.11 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 3266 |
| 44 | Jackson RagenSEA · CB · 24 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 93 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 3152 |
| 45 | César AraújoORL · DM · 22 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 89 | 0.20 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.13 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.25 | 3033 |
| 46 | Sebastián DriussiATX · AM · 27 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 70 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.04 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.27 | 2549 |
| 47 | Ryan GauldVAN · ST · 27 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 96 | 0.35 | 0.04 | -0.09 | 0.01 | 0.05 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.21 | 2896 |
| 48 | Matt FreeseNYC · GK · 24 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 63 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.13 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.39 | 1003 |
| 49 | Matt MiazgaCIN · CB · 27 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 74 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.14 | 2679 |
| 50 | Dave RomneyNE · CB · 30 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 88 | 0.04 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.02 | 0.28 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 3365 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
Goals added: every on-ball action (passing, receiving, dribbling, shooting, interrupting, fouling; for a goalkeeper, shot stopping, claiming, sweeping, handling, distribution) changes the probability that the team scores or concedes. American Soccer Analysis sums it, in goals, above the position average.
Replacement: the position average is not the right zero. We measure the per-minute output of bench players in each position group (300 to 1,000 minutes over the season, prorated to games played); every player is credited with the gap between the average and that level, by his minutes (the “Repl.” column).
Conversion: 0.636 standings point per goal of differential (the regression of points per game on goal differential per game, every season since 2021), then 3 points = 1 win, a win's value in the standings.
Data: American Soccer Analysis (goals added, xG, xPass) and ESPN. PickALeague calculations.