2022 MLS WAR: the wins every player adds
WAR — wins above replacement — says how many wins a player adds to his team over a replacement player. MLS publishes none: ours starts from American Soccer Analysis goals added (g+), the value in goals of each of a player's actions, turned into standings points, then wins.
Caveat: a goalkeeper's WAR rests mostly on his saves against post-shot expected goals, a measure that varies a lot from season to season. A single goalkeeper season should be read with care; the ratings, over four seasons, are steadier.
| # | Player | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre BlakePHI · GK · 31 | 3.8 | 17.8 | 95 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.03 | 0.03 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 1.61 | 3394 |
| 2 | Đorđe PetrovićNE · GK · 22 | 3.4 | 16.2 | 98 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.98 | 2065 |
| 3 | Aljaž IvačičPOR · GK · 28 | 2.9 | 13.5 | 89 | -0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.27 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.52 | 3208 |
| 4 | Brad StuverATX · GK · 31 | 2.6 | 12.2 | 92 | 0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.04 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 1.43 | 3004 |
| 5 | Dayne St. ClairMIN · GK · 25 | 2.4 | 11.1 | 85 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.70 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 1.47 | 3094 |
| 6 | Eloy RoomCLB · GK · 33 | 2.3 | 11.0 | 82 | -0.13 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.86 | 0.04 | 0.11 | -0.13 | -0.03 | 1.61 | 3398 |
| 7 | Maarten PaesDAL · GK · 24 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 47 | -0.15 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.77 | -0.04 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 1.51 | 3189 |
| 8 | Steve ClarkHOU · GK · 36 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 69 | -0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.47 | 0.03 | -0.10 | -0.13 | -0.06 | 1.54 | 3237 |
| 9 | Stefan FreiSEA · GK · 36 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 63 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.63 | -0.07 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 2679 |
| 10 | Drake CallenderMIA · GK · 24 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 79 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.43 | -0.02 | 0.09 | -0.02 | -0.05 | 1.14 | 2392 |
| 11 | Sean JohnsonNYC · GK · 33 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 60 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.07 | -0.04 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 1.60 | 3378 |
| 12 | Hany MukhtarNSH · ST · 27 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 99 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.33 | -0.04 | 0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.31 | 3082 |
| 13 | Joe WillisNSH · GK · 33 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 66 | -0.09 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.14 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 0.08 | -0.02 | 1.51 | 3178 |
| 14 | Alex BonoTOR · GK · 28 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 73 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.29 | -0.07 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 1.13 | 2386 |
| 15 | Zac MacMathRSL · GK · 30 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 50 | 0.14 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.31 | -0.14 | -0.04 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 1.60 | 3361 |
| 16 | Gabriel SloninaCHI · GK · 18 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 40 | -0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.19 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 1.51 | 3181 |
| 17 | Carles GilNE · AM · 29 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 98 | 0.57 | -0.24 | 0.60 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.23 | 3181 |
| 18 | Carlos CoronelRBNY · GK · 25 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 56 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.57 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 1.57 | 3302 |
| 19 | Maxime CrépeauLAFC · GK · 28 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 53 | -0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.59 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 1.57 | 3297 |
| 20 | José CifuentesLAFC · CM · 23 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 99 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.11 | 2557 |
| 21 | Diego RubioCOL · AM · 29 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 92 | 0.24 | 0.34 | -0.03 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.20 | 2670 |
| 22 | Luciano AcostaCIN · AM · 28 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 99 | 0.42 | 0.36 | -0.06 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.20 | 2708 |
| 23 | Thiago AlmadaATL · AM · 21 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 97 | 0.41 | -0.04 | 0.33 | 0.16 | -0.08 | -0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.19 | 2622 |
| 24 | James PantemisMTL · GK · 25 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 76 | -0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.52 | 1104 |
| 25 | Bill TuilomaPOR · CB · 27 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 98 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.03 | 2532 |
| 26 | Michael BradleyTOR · DM · 34 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 98 | 0.35 | -0.13 | 0.27 | -0.07 | 0.25 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.14 | 3348 |
| 27 | Luiz AraújoATL · W · 26 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 90 | 0.03 | -0.07 | 0.53 | 0.23 | -0.04 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 2382 |
| 28 | Andreu FontàsSKC · CB · 32 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 99 | 0.28 | -0.01 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.03 | 2672 |
| 29 | Emanuel ReynosoMIN · AM · 26 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 88 | 0.30 | -0.08 | 0.12 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.17 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.20 | 2718 |
| 30 | Ryan GauldVAN · AM · 26 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 86 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 2435 |
| 31 | Maxi MoralezNYC · AM · 35 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 82 | 0.42 | -0.02 | 0.13 | -0.04 | 0.07 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.17 | 2321 |
| 32 | Jordan MorrisSEA · W · 27 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 76 | -0.13 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 2500 |
| 33 | Taty CastellanosNYC · ST · 23 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 97 | -0.03 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.12 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.16 | 1590 |
| 34 | ChicharitoLA · ST · 34 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 64 | -0.08 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 0.03 | -0.07 | 0.25 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.29 | 2811 |
| 35 | Kristijan KahlinaCLT · GK · 29 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 44 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | -1.10 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.15 | -0.02 | 1.46 | 3081 |
| 36 | Roman CelentanoCIN · GK · 21 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 37 | -0.07 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.45 | 0.01 | -0.08 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 1.27 | 2674 |
| 37 | Walker ZimmermanNSH · CB · 29 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 78 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.08 | -0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.04 | 2784 |
| 38 | Santiago RodríguezNYC · AM · 22 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 94 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.34 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.20 | 2667 |
| 39 | Talles MagnoNYC · W · 20 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 81 | -0.07 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.11 | -0.06 | 0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.21 | 2823 |
| 40 | Sebastián BlancoPOR · AM · 34 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 89 | 0.45 | -0.07 | 0.10 | 0.01 | -0.09 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.15 | 2010 |
| 41 | Cucho HernándezCLB · ST · 23 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 70 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.15 | 1445 |
| 42 | Cristian ArangoLAFC · ST · 27 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 84 | 0.03 | 0.10 | -0.16 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.26 | 2562 |
| 43 | Mikael UhrePHI · ST · 27 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 88 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.07 | -0.06 | 0.13 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.18 | 1758 |
| 44 | Pedro GalleseORL · GK · 32 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 21 | -0.20 | — | — | — | — | — | -0.70 | 0.00 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.52 | 3200 |
| 45 | Alan FrancoATL · CB · 25 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 96 | 0.22 | -0.07 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.04 | 2993 |
| 46 | Jack ElliottPHI · CB · 26 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 95 | -0.11 | 0.03 | -0.09 | 0.04 | 0.62 | -0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.04 | 3167 |
| 47 | Andrew GutmanATL · FB · 25 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 56 | -0.05 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.11 | -0.02 | 0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.08 | 2162 |
| 48 | Lassi LappalainenMTL · FB · 23 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 92 | -0.01 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.04 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.08 | 2097 |
| 49 | Brandon ByeNE · FB · 26 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 87 | 0.01 | 0.23 | -0.04 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.11 | 2806 |
| 50 | Pedro SantosCLB · FB · 34 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 80 | 0.43 | -0.11 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.10 | 2570 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
Goals added: every on-ball action (passing, receiving, dribbling, shooting, interrupting, fouling; for a goalkeeper, shot stopping, claiming, sweeping, handling, distribution) changes the probability that the team scores or concedes. American Soccer Analysis sums it, in goals, above the position average.
Replacement: the position average is not the right zero. We measure the per-minute output of bench players in each position group (300 to 1,000 minutes over the season, prorated to games played); every player is credited with the gap between the average and that level, by his minutes (the “Repl.” column).
Conversion: 0.636 standings point per goal of differential (the regression of points per game on goal differential per game, every season since 2021), then 3 points = 1 win, a win's value in the standings.
Data: American Soccer Analysis (goals added, xG, xPass) and ESPN. PickALeague calculations.