Zemgus
Girgensons
C · TBL · Defensive · Below average
- PAL
- 34
- WAR
- -0.2
- Value
- 50
- PTS
- 20
2025-26№ 500 / 615
Zemgus Girgensons (Tampa Bay Lightning) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Zemgus Girgensons
#28CPlays: Centre and winger · 27% of faceoffs
Tampa Bay Lightning
HEIGHT : 191 cm · WEIGHT : 91 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : January 4, 1994 · Riga, Latvia
Drafted : 2012 · BUF · round 1, pick #14
Contract : $850,000 · 2024-25 → 2026-27 · Standard Contract · UFA · Signing bonus $225,000M-NTC
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 14 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 74 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 31 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 47 |
| 2023-24 | Buffalo Sabres | 63 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 21 |
| 2022-23 | Buffalo Sabres | 80 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 14 |
| 2021-22 | Buffalo Sabres | 56 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 27 |
| 2019-20 | Buffalo Sabres | 69 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 10 |
| 2018-19 | Buffalo Sabres | 72 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 17 |
| 2017-18 | Buffalo Sabres | 71 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 26 |
| 2016-17 | Buffalo Sabres | 75 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 18 |
| 2015-16 | Buffalo Sabres | 71 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 20 |
| 2014-15 | Buffalo Sabres | 61 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 25 |
| 2013-14 | Buffalo Sabres | 70 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 14 |
| NHL totals | 857 | 101 | 116 | 217 | 272 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Playoff totals | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
Zemgus Girgensons: our analysis
2025-26 season: 74 GP, 9 G, 11 A, 20 PTS, +1 +/-, 14:46 TOI. WAR -0.2 (500th of 615) · PAL 34, below average.
In 2025-26, Zemgus Girgensons, 32, posts a PAL Rating of 34 out of 100 (below average), and his WAR of -0.2 ranks 500th among 615 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
His strengths: penalty kill (78, well above average) and defense (72, above average). On the other hand, offense (8, among the weakest in the league) and shooting (22, well below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+1.5); his biggest cost: finishing (-3.7).
A marked decline: his PAL was 60 in 2024-25, against 34 now; his WAR went from -0.1 to -0.2.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 50 (fair value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Zemgus Girgensons's story
Growing up in Riga, Girgensons left Latvia as a teenager to chase a North American route to the pros. He spent a season in the EJHL with the Green Mountain Glades before moving to the USHL where he played for the Dubuque Fighting Saints. With Dubuque he won the USHL championship in 2011, skated in the league's All-Star Game and finished his junior career as the team's captain.
Entering the 2012 draft year as a projected first-rounder, Buffalo selected him 14th overall, at that time the highest pick ever for a Latvian. He had been committed to the University of Vermont but opted to sign a professional contract on 13 July 2012, foregoing NCAA eligibility. Girgensons began pro life in the AHL with Rochester; a late hit by Richard Pánik at the start of 2013 caused an injury, yet he closed that season by scoring three goals in Rochester's first-round Calder Cup playoff loss.
He made the Sabres' roster to open 2013–14 and scored his first NHL goal on 2 October 2013 against Jimmy Howard and the Detroit Red Wings. Fan support back home propelled him into the 2015 NHL All-Star Game via an overwhelming voting turnout. Over the next years Buffalo re-signed him several times — a one-year deal in 2016, a two-year contract in 2017, another one-year pact in 2019 and a three-year extension in October 2020 — and named him an alternate captain ahead of the 2021–22 season. A hamstring injury requiring surgery in January 2021 sidelined him for that season. After a further one-year deal with Buffalo in June 2023, he reached unrestricted free agency and on 1 July 2024 agreed to a three-year, $2.55 million contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning to add centre depth.
On the international stage Girgensons represented Latvia at junior levels, including the 2012 World Junior Championship and the 2010 U18 Worlds. He debuted for the senior team at the 2013 IIHF World Championship against the United States and scored his first senior goal versus Slovakia. He appeared at the 2014 Winter Olympics, scoring an Olympic goal on a power play against Sweden and Henrik Lundqvist, and has played multiple World Championships (2013, 2014, 2016, 2017). A one-game suspension was issued after an incident involving Branislav Mezei.
A natural centre, Girgensons has carved a role as a dependable depth forward at the NHL level. His career path reflects steady advancement from European youth hockey to North American juniors and then to a regular professional role, underlined by repeated contract extensions and international appearances.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 14:04
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:03
- SH TOI/GP
- 1:54
- Pts/GP
- 0.29
- EV points
- 4
- Hits
- 39
- Blocks
- 12
- Takeaways
- 3
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 52.2 %
- Off. zone starts
- 28.0 %
- Faceoffs
- 58.2 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
20between 7 and 33 (80% range)
- Goals
- 7
- Assists
- 13
- Games
- 74
So far: 4 pts in 14 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.27 pts per game (last season: 0.27).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Slight decline
- Points per game: 0.22 in 23-24, 0.27 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 60 → 34
Outlook, age included
↓ DecliningAge 32: the age when production usually declines
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 79 %
66
Depth
- SK
- Skating
- 80
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 89
- Confidence 82 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 69
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 79
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 87
- Confidence 82 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 87
- Confidence 65 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 80
- Confidence 82 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 65
- Confidence 65 %
- PA
- Passing
- 52
- Confidence 79 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 60
- Confidence 79 %
- DF
- Defense
- 87
- Confidence 76 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 83
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating80
- Top speed (35 %)36.5 · 80
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)7.743 · 81
- Distance /60 (20 %)16 · 66
- Speed consistency (15 %)36 · 84
ST — Strength89
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)6.326 · 92
- Body mass (50 %)0.076 · 78
EN — Endurance69
- Ice time per game (45 %)13.6 · 68
- Total ice time (20 %)1,072 · 75
- Shift length (15 %)42.5 · 64
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)12 · 65
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)1.872 · 68
DU — Durability79
- Share of games played (100 %)0.848 · 79
CK — Checking87
- Hits /60 (70 %)9.04 · 89
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)5.349 · 82
- Season volume (10 %)5.278 · 92
FG — Fighting87
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)1.387 · 87
DI — Discipline80
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.033 · 80
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.605 · 76
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.798 · 78
FO — Faceoffs65
- Faceoff % (85 %)48 · 69
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)17.8 · 57
PA — Passing52
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.357 · 42
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.328 · 61
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)-0.048 · 63
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.719 · 79
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.28 · 62
SC — Scoring60
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.546 · 58
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.684 · 67
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.952 · 57
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.101 · 67
- xG per shot (10 %)0.082 · 70
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)10.9 · 68
DF — Defense87
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.096 · 85
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.229 · 86
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.394 · 88
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.032 · 71
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.316 · 77
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)53.1 · 94
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)3.08 · 82
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience83
- Career regular-season games (65 %)95
- Career playoff games (25 %)48
- NHL seasons (10 %)90
OV — Overall66
- SC · Scoring (20 %)60
- PA · Passing (20 %)52
- DF · Defense (20 %)87
- SK · Skating (12 %)80
- FO · Faceoffs (10 %)65
- EN · Endurance (8 %)69
- DI · Discipline (5 %)80
- ST · Strength (3 %)89
- CK · Checking (2 %)87
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66 | 80 | 60 | 87 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 80 | 53 | 89 |
| 2023-24 | 67 | 82 | 67 | 84 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 81 | 67 | 92 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
-0.2
wins above replacement
500 of 615
PAL Rating
34/ 100
Performance · Below average
303 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
50/ 100
Fair value
0.85 M$ · expected PAL 35
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 17
- Defense
- 70
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 8
- Creation
- 35
- Shooting
- 22
- Possession
- 45
- Defense
- 72
- Discipline
- 30
- Power play
- 29
- Penalty kill
- 78
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | -0.2 | 34 | 50 | 0.85 M$ |
| 2024-25 | TBL | -0.1 | 60 | 77 | 0.85 M$ |
| 2023-24 | BUF | 0.6 | 33 | 29 | 2.50 M$ |
| 2022-23 | BUF | 0.1 | 63 | 58 | 2.20 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
20/ 100
Below average
better than 20% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
36/ 100
Below average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
22/ 100
Below average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 338 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 11
- Shot selection
- 59
- Penalties drawn
- 44
- Puck management
- 49
Defense
- Takeaways
- 1
- Discipline
- 25
- Safe zone exits
- 86
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 20 | 36 | 22 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 66 | 33 | 84 |
| 2023-24 | BUF | 35 | 25 | 52 |
| 2022-23 | BUF | 55 | 48 | 64 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-0.2
wins above replacement
-0.8 to 1.3 — 90% interval
500 of 615 forwards
-0.9 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -1.3
- EV defense
- +1.5
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- +0.0
- Shooting
- -3.7
- Penalties
- -0.2
- Average → replacement
- +2.8
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 74 | -0.2 | -0.8 to 1.3 | 500/615 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 79 | -0.1 | -0.6 to 0.4 | 472/596 |
| 2023-24 | BUF | 63 | 0.6 | -0.4 to 1.3 | 217/608 |
| 2022-23 | BUF | 80 | 0.1 | -0.7 to 0.8 | 323/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 130.1 km/h44th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.2 km/h51st percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 3684th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 39.7 %23rd percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 47.5 km37th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.43 km46th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 41.2 %52nd percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 19.2 %93rd percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 41.1 %34th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 2050th percentile | 139th percentile | 5.0 %10th percentile |
| High danger | 539th percentile | 157th percentile | 20.0 %56th percentile |
| Mid range | 656th percentile | 054th percentile | 0.0 %32nd percentile |
| Long range | 383rd percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %87th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
WPG
MIN
CHI
UTA
COL
VGK
VAN
SEA
NYR
NYI
PHI
WSHZemgus Girgensons: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Zemgus Girgensons have in 2026-27?
Zemgus Girgensons has 1 goal and 4 points (3 assists) in 14 games in 2026-27.
How old is Zemgus Girgensons?
Zemgus Girgensons is 32 years old: he was born on January 5, 1994.
How tall is Zemgus Girgensons, and how much does he weigh?
Zemgus Girgensons is 6'3" (191 cm) and weighs 201 lb (91 kg).
Where is Zemgus Girgensons from?
Latvia: Zemgus Girgensons was born in Riga, Latvia.
What team does Zemgus Girgensons play for?
Zemgus Girgensons plays for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL, at C, wearing number 28.
Is Zemgus Girgensons injured?
No: Zemgus Girgensons is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Zemgus Girgensons?
Zemgus Girgensons produced -0.2 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 500th of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 34 out of 100: below average for his position.
How much does Zemgus Girgensons make?
Zemgus Girgensons earns $850K for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 50 out of 100 (fair value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Zemgus Girgensons's contract end?
Zemgus Girgensons's contract runs through the 2026-27 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent. It includes a M-NTC clause.
Is Zemgus Girgensons overpaid?
Neither: he delivers about what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 50 out of 100 (fair value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Zemgus Girgensons a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 500th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Zemgus Girgensons getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 60 in 2024-25 to 34 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Zemgus Girgensons played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Zemgus Girgensons has 3 points (1 goal, 2 assists).
What are Zemgus Girgensons's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Zemgus Girgensons has 857 games, 101 goals, 116 assists and 217 points. His best season: 2014-15, with 30 points in 61 games.
Where was Zemgus Girgensons drafted?
Zemgus Girgensons was drafted 14th overall (round 1) by Buffalo Sabres in 2012.
Is Zemgus Girgensons better at home or on the road?
No real difference: in 2026-27, he averages 0.33 points per game at home (2 in 6 games) and 0.25 on the road (2 in 8 games).
How does Zemgus Girgensons perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Zemgus Girgensons has 12 games and 0 points in his career. His pace (0.00 points per game) is lower than his regular-season pace (0.25).
Which player is most similar to Zemgus Girgensons?
Tim Washe: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Tim Washe's page →Is Zemgus Girgensons a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 20 points in 2026-27, or 0.27 points per game.
Is Zemgus Girgensons related to anyone famous?
Yes: Aldis Girgensons (father, played as a defenceman for RTU Hanza Riga; general manager of the East Hokkaido Cranes (Asia League Ice Hockey); led the team to victory in the All-Japan Championship in December 2020).
What is Zemgus Girgensons's nationality?
Zemgus Girgensons is Latvian. Internationally: represented Latvia at the 2012 World Junior Championships, the 2010 IIHF U18 World Championships, made his senior national team debut at the 2013 World Championship (scored his first international goal against Slovakia); named to Latvia's 2014 Olympic team (scored vs. Sweden); played at the 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017 IIHF World Championships.
What awards has Zemgus Girgensons won?
Voted to the NHL All-Star Game, 2015 ; USHL All-Star Game participant, 2011.
How many championships has Zemgus Girgensons won?
1: USHL champion with the Dubuque Fighting Saints, 2011.
Where did Zemgus Girgensons play before turning pro?
began at EVHS hockey school and in Latvian minor and youth leagues; played for the Green Mountain Glades (EJHL) in 2009; moved to the Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL) the following season, named captain of the Fighting Saints in 2011–12.
How many points is Zemgus Girgensons projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 20 points in 74 games in 2026-27 (7 to 33 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Tampa Bay Lightning teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)