Brandon
Hagel
L · TBL · Two-way · Elite
- PAL
- 98
- WAR
- 3.5
- Value
- 98
- PTS
- 74
2025-26№ 19 / 615
Brandon Hagel (Tampa Bay Lightning) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Brandon Hagel
#38LPlays: Left wing · 2% of faceoffs
Tampa Bay Lightning
HEIGHT : 188 cm · WEIGHT : 84 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : August 26, 1998 · Saskatoon, Canada
Drafted : 2016 · BUF · round 6, pick #159
Contract : $6,500,000 · 2024-25 → 2031-32 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFA · Signing bonus $7,180,000NTC / M-NTC
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 17 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 71 | 36 | 38 | 74 | 58 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 35 | 55 | 90 | 58 |
| 2023-24 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 26 | 49 | 75 | 79 |
| 2022-23 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 81 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 54 |
| 2021-22 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 22 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| 2021-22 | Chicago Blackhawks | 55 | 21 | 16 | 37 | 23 |
| 2020-21 | Chicago Blackhawks | 52 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 11 |
| 2019-20 | Chicago Blackhawks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NHL totals | 462 | 169 | 219 | 388 | 295 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 2023-24 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 2022-23 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 2021-22 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 23 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| Playoff totals | 44 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 45 | |
Brandon Hagel: our analysis
2025-26 season: 71 GP, 36 G, 38 A, 74 PTS, +34 +/-, 19:46 TOI. WAR 3.5 (19th of 615) · PAL 98, elite.
In 2025-26, Brandon Hagel, 28, posts a PAL Rating of 98 out of 100 (elite), and his WAR of 3.5 ranks 19th among 615 regulars, among the league's elite.
His strengths: possession (100, among the best in the league), offense (95, among the best in the league) and shooting (95, among the best in the league).
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV offense (+9.2); his biggest cost: penalty kill (-0.1).
An improvement on 2024-25, when his PAL was 95; his WAR went from 3.2 to 3.5.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 98 (exceptional value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Brandon Hagel's story
Raised in Morinville after being born in Saskatoon, Brandon Hagel worked his way up through Alberta’s minor ranks before reaching major junior hockey. Overlooked in the WHL bantam draft, he nonetheless compiled strong numbers in midget AAA and with Whitecourt, which opened the door to a Red Deer Rebels spot in 2015. In junior he developed a reputation for going to the hard areas and doing the little things that create chances.
Hagel’s stock rose steadily with the Rebels. He played a part in the club’s run to the 2016 Memorial Cup and finished his WHL tenure by setting Red Deer’s franchise record for assists. Selected 159th overall by Buffalo in the 2016 NHL draft, he never signed with the Sabres; instead, after a hot start in 2018–19, he agreed to a three-year entry-level deal with the Chicago Blackhawks.
Professionally he began in the AHL with Rockford before making his NHL debut on March 11, 2020, for Chicago. A loan to HC Thurgau came during the pandemic-delayed 2020–21 season, and Chicago re-signed him to a three-year extension in August 2021. By 2021–22 he had established new career highs in goals and overall production, catching the attention of contenders.
That season brought a trade to the Tampa Bay Lightning in March 2022. Hagel settled into Tampa Bay’s lineup and produced steadily: 64 points in 2022–23, 75 points in 2023–24, then a career-best 90 points in 2024–25. He and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $52 million extension in August 2023. His playoff contributions have been notable, though some post-season series also included physical incidents and suspensions.
Internationally Hagel joined Canada’s senior team for the 2021 IIHF World Championship, a tournament that ended with gold, and he was part of the squad that won the 4 Nations Face-Off in 2025. His game is built around relentless forechecking, quick puck retrievals and playmaking that has translated into increasing offensive returns at the NHL level.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 20:50
- PP TOI/GP
- 3:54
- SH TOI/GP
- 2:17
- Pts/GP
- 1.06
- EV points
- 14
- Hits
- 10
- Blocks
- 10
- Takeaways
- 9
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 59.1 %
- Off. zone starts
- 36.2 %
- Faceoffs
- 37.5 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
81between 58 and 97 (80% range)
- Goals
- 39
- Assists
- 42
- Games
- 79
So far: 18 pts in 17 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 1.01 pts per game (last season: 1.04).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Stable
- Points per game: 0.91 in 23-24, 1.04 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 95 → 98
Outlook, age included
→ StableAge 28: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 85 %
94
Star
- SK
- Skating
- 80
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 77
- Confidence 88 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 89
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 85
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 65
- Confidence 88 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 80
- Confidence 66 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 78
- Confidence 88 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 64
- Confidence 36 %
- PA
- Passing
- 88
- Confidence 85 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 86
- Confidence 85 %
- DF
- Defense
- 81
- Confidence 83 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 86
- Confidence 25 %
- EX
- Experience
- 81
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating80
- Top speed (35 %)36.9 · 87
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)6.876 · 81
- Distance /60 (20 %)15.4 · 59
- Speed consistency (15 %)36.2 · 87
ST — Strength77
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.943 · 85
- Body mass (50 %)-0.782 · 68
EN — Endurance89
- Ice time per game (45 %)18.1 · 91
- Total ice time (20 %)1,340 · 85
- Shift length (15 %)48.2 · 82
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)17.2 · 89
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)3.808 · 92
DU — Durability85
- Share of games played (100 %)0.871 · 85
CK — Checking65
- Hits /60 (70 %)2.594 · 64
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)2.418 · 67
- Season volume (10 %)3.761 · 68
FG — Fighting80
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.973 · 80
DI — Discipline78
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.037 · 79
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.935 · 64
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)1.154 · 88
FO — Faceoffs64
- Faceoff % (85 %)48.1 · 70
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)8.388 · 35
PA — Passing88
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)1.103 · 89
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.566 · 80
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.344 · 93
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.024 · 69
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.689 · 84
SC — Scoring86
- Goals /60 (25 %)1.339 · 88
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)1.021 · 83
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.385 · 80
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.609 · 81
- xG per shot (10 %)0.082 · 83
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)17.1 · 84
DF — Defense81
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.102 · 87
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.028 · 76
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.502 · 81
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.007 · 63
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.298 · 79
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)59.3 · 70
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)2.309 · 76
PS — Penalty shot86
- Shootouts (60 %)30.5 · 58
- Penalty shots (40 %)30.2 · 93
EX — Experience81
- Career regular-season games (65 %)86
- Career playoff games (25 %)72
- NHL seasons (10 %)71
OV — Overall94
- SC · Scoring (28 %)86
- PA · Passing (22 %)88
- DF · Defense (18 %)81
- SK · Skating (12 %)80
- EN · Endurance (8 %)89
- DI · Discipline (5 %)78
- ST · Strength (4 %)77
- CK · Checking (3 %)65
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 94 | 80 | 86 | 81 |
| 2024-25 | 92 | 80 | 82 | 84 |
| 2023-24 | 87 | 80 | 78 | 80 |
| 2022-23 | 84 | 78 | 82 | 74 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
3.5
wins above replacement
19 of 615
PAL Rating
98/ 100
Performance · Elite
10 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
98/ 100
Exceptional value
6.50 M$ · expected PAL 69
ProfileTwo-wayStrong at both ends
- Offense
- 96
- Defense
- 91
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 95
- Creation
- 85
- Shooting
- 95
- Possession
- 100
- Defense
- 77
- Discipline
- 75
- Power play
- 72
- Penalty kill
- 80
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 3.5 | 98 | 98 | 6.50 M$ |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 3.2 | 95 | 93 | 6.50 M$ |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 2.2 | 91 | 95 | 1.50 M$ |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 2.0 | 81 | 83 | 1.50 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
90/ 100
Elite
better than 90% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
97/ 100
Elite
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
33/ 100
Below average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 41 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 96
- Shot selection
- 60
- Penalties drawn
- 90
- Puck management
- 90
Defense
- Takeaways
- 74
- Discipline
- 10
- Safe zone exits
- 76
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 90 | 97 | 33 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 87 | 92 | 50 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 58 | 88 | 19 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 76 | 84 | 56 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
3.5
wins above replacement
2.4 to 5.4 — 90% interval
19 of 615 forwards
+18.7 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +9.2
- EV defense
- +2.3
- Power play
- +0.3
- Penalty kill
- -0.1
- Shooting
- +2.6
- Penalties
- +1.0
- Average → replacement
- +3.5
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 71 | 3.5 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 19/615 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 79 | 3.2 | 1.7 to 5.3 | 25/596 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 82 | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.8 | 61/608 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 81 | 2.0 | 0.5 to 4.0 | 58/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 135.8 km/h63rd percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.4 km/h58th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 2669th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 42.3 %52nd percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 77.9 km83rd percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 5.65 km84th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 41.8 %65th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 18.0 %45th percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 39.7 %50th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 6298th percentile | 893rd percentile | 12.9 %50th percentile |
| High danger | 2498th percentile | 596th percentile | 20.8 %56th percentile |
| Mid range | 1996th percentile | 177th percentile | 5.3 %34th percentile |
| Long range | 797th percentile | 199th percentile | 14.3 %91st percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
WPG
MIN
CHI
DET
NSH
UTA
COL
VGK
VAN
SEA
NYR
NYI
PHI
WSHBrandon Hagel: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Brandon Hagel have in 2026-27?
Brandon Hagel has 9 goals and 18 points (9 assists) in 17 games in 2026-27.
How old is Brandon Hagel?
Brandon Hagel is 28 years old: he was born on August 27, 1998.
How tall is Brandon Hagel, and how much does he weigh?
Brandon Hagel is 6'2" (188 cm) and weighs 185 lb (84 kg).
Where is Brandon Hagel from?
Canada: Brandon Hagel was born in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
What team does Brandon Hagel play for?
Brandon Hagel plays for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL, at L, wearing number 38.
Is Brandon Hagel injured?
No: Brandon Hagel is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Brandon Hagel?
Brandon Hagel produced 3.5 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 19th of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 98 out of 100: elite for his position.
How much does Brandon Hagel make?
Brandon Hagel earns $6.5M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 98 out of 100 (exceptional value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Brandon Hagel's contract end?
Brandon Hagel's contract runs through the 2031-32 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent. It includes a NTC / M-NTC clause.
Is Brandon Hagel overpaid?
No, he gives more than he costs. His Value rating is 98 out of 100 (exceptional value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Brandon Hagel a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 19th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Brandon Hagel getting better?
Yes: his PAL rating went from 95 in 2024-25 to 98 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Brandon Hagel played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Brandon Hagel has 8 points (3 goals, 5 assists).
What are Brandon Hagel's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Brandon Hagel has 462 games, 169 goals, 219 assists and 388 points. His best season: 2024-25, with 90 points in 82 games.
Where was Brandon Hagel drafted?
Brandon Hagel was drafted 159th overall (round 6) by Buffalo Sabres in 2016.
Is Brandon Hagel better at home or on the road?
At home: in 2026-27, he averages 1.38 points per game at home (11 in 8 games) and 0.78 on the road (7 in 9 games).
How does Brandon Hagel perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Brandon Hagel has 44 games and 24 points in his career. His pace (0.55 points per game) is lower than his regular-season pace (0.84).
Which player is most similar to Brandon Hagel?
Seth Jarvis: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Seth Jarvis's page →Is Brandon Hagel a good fantasy pick?
Yes, a top-tier pick: our projection has him at 81 points in 2026-27, or 1.03 points per game.
What is Brandon Hagel's nationality?
Brandon Hagel is Canadian. Internationally: Canada — gold medal at the 2021 IIHF World Championship; gold medal at the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off; named to Canada's 2026 Olympic roster.
What awards has Brandon Hagel won?
Selected to the WHL Eastern Conference Second All-Star Team (final WHL season 2018–19) ; NHL First Star of the Week (February 2025).
How many championships has Brandon Hagel won?
2: Gold medal with Team Canada at the 2021 IIHF World Championship; Gold medal with Team Canada at the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off.
Where did Brandon Hagel play before turning pro?
Junior career with the Red Deer Rebels (WHL), signed September 17, 2015 and played through the final 2018–19 season; previously Fort Saskatchewan Rangers (AMHL) in 2012–13 and Whitecourt Wolverines in Midget.
How many points is Brandon Hagel projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 81 points in 79 games in 2026-27 (58 to 97 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Tampa Bay Lightning teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)