Noah
Ostlund
C · BUF · Defensive · Around average
- PAL
- 59
- WAR
- 1.3
- Value
- 76
- PTS
- 27
2025-26№ 122 / 615
Noah Ostlund (Buffalo Sabres) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Noah Ostlund
#86CPlays: Centre · 64% of faceoffs
Buffalo Sabres
HEIGHT : 180 cm · WEIGHT : 83 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : March 10, 2004 · Stockholm, Sweden
Drafted : 2022 · BUF · round 1, pick #16
Contract : $950,000 · 2022-23 → 2026-27 · Entry-Level Contract · RFA · Signing bonus $95,000
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Buffalo Sabres | 17 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 60 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 14 |
| 2024-25 | Buffalo Sabres | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NHL totals | 85 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 22 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Playoff totals | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
Noah Ostlund: our analysis
2025-26 season: 60 GP, 11 G, 16 A, 27 PTS, +11 +/-, 13:58 TOI. WAR 1.3 (122nd of 615) · PAL 59, around average.
In 2025-26, Noah Ostlund, 22, posts a PAL Rating of 59 out of 100 (around average), and his WAR of 1.3 ranks 122nd among 615 regulars, in the top quarter.
His strengths: defense (85, among the best in the league), penalty kill (74, above average) and possession (65, above average). On the other hand, creation (3, among the weakest in the league) holds him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: finishing (+4.3); his biggest cost: EV offense (-0.5).
His WAR went from -0.0 in 2024-25 to 1.3.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 76 (very good contract) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Noah Ostlund's story
Born in Nykvarn on 11 March 2004, Noah Östlund came up through the Swedish junior circuit, moving from Södertälje into Djurgårdens IF’s development system. As a teenager he logged significant minutes across youth levels, appearing in TV‑Pucken and distinguishing himself in J18 and J20 competition where he was regularly among his team's top scorers.
Östlund split the 2021–22 season between early professional appearances and a leading offensive role at the J20 level, which raised his profile ahead of the NHL draft. The Buffalo Sabres selected him 16th overall in the 2022 entry draft and signed him to a three‑year entry‑level contract on 16 July 2022, after which he was loaned back to Sweden to continue his development.
His first professional games came with Djurgårdens IF in 2021–22. After Djurgårdens failed to secure promotion, Östlund was loaned for 2023–24 to reigning Swedish champions Växjö Lakers to gain top‑level experience. He later moved to North America, spending the bulk of 2024–25 with the Rochester Americans in the AHL before being recalled by Buffalo on 4 April 2025; he made his NHL debut on 5 April 2025 versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. Early in the 2025–26 season he was called up again and recorded his first multi‑goal game on 17 November 2025 against the Edmonton Oilers.
Internationally, Östlund was part of Sweden's gold medal performance at the 2022 IIHF World U18 Championships, posting ten points in six games. He also played at the 2024 World Junior Championship, contributing ten points in seven contests as Sweden claimed silver.
On the ice he is best known as an offensive playmaker: quick, smooth on his skates with sharp passing vision and confident stickhandling. Those traits define his role at centre, where he generates scoring opportunities and orchestrates offensive possessions.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 18:56
- PP TOI/GP
- 3:28
- SH TOI/GP
- 0:34
- Pts/GP
- 0.59
- EV points
- 7
- Hits
- 2
- Blocks
- 7
- Takeaways
- 1
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 56.6 %
- Off. zone starts
- 45.8 %
- Faceoffs
- 36.0 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
Prospect value
Scout Report Center →Rank
49
among all 32 teams' prospects
Rating
96/ 100
percentile among prospects at his position
Potential
70/ 80
First line or top pair
Ceiling: 10.1 WAR from age 21 to 26
NHL probability
76 %
of playing 200 NHL games from age 21 to 26
Expected WAR, age 21-26
4.1
the most likely outcome
NHLe
54
NHL points over 82 games, from 2025-26 (AHL, 7 games)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
37between 20 and 54 (80% range)
- Goals
- 14
- Assists
- 23
- Games
- 70
So far: 10 pts in 17 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.51 pts per game (last season: 0.45).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 46 %
70
Established NHL
- SK
- Skating
- 65
- Confidence 57 %
- ST
- Strength
- 65
- Confidence 51 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 71
- Confidence 50 %
- DU
- Durability
- 59
- Confidence 57 %
- CK
- Checking
- 55
- Confidence 51 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 77
- Confidence 29 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 76
- Confidence 51 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 45
- Confidence 41 %
- PA
- Passing
- 77
- Confidence 46 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 74
- Confidence 46 %
- DF
- Defense
- 84
- Confidence 41 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 85
- Confidence 14 %
- EX
- Experience
- 49
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating65
- Top speed (35 %)35 · 57
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)4.922 · 70
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.9 · 88
- Speed consistency (15 %)34.1 · 58
ST — Strength65
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.117 · 75
- Body mass (50 %)-1.203 · 61
EN — Endurance71
- Ice time per game (45 %)14.1 · 71
- Total ice time (20 %)805 · 67
- Shift length (15 %)43.1 · 67
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)13.7 · 75
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)1.846 · 67
DU — Durability59
- Share of games played (100 %)0.677 · 59
CK — Checking55
- Hits /60 (70 %)2.071 · 61
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)2.222 · 68
- Season volume (10 %)1.792 · 42
FG — Fighting77
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.861 · 77
DI — Discipline76
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.016 · 75
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.585 · 77
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.676 · 71
FO — Faceoffs45
- Faceoff % (85 %)42.9 · 45
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)27.4 · 66
PA — Passing77
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.693 · 77
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.515 · 77
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.004 · 70
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.649 · 78
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.587 · 80
SC — Scoring74
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.833 · 76
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.635 · 62
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.508 · 85
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)0.953 · 60
- xG per shot (10 %)0.082 · 70
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)11.1 · 68
DF — Defense84
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.051 · 79
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.303 · 90
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.457 · 83
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.025 · 74
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.383 · 74
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)55.2 · 89
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)2.594 · 74
PS — Penalty shot85
- Shootouts (60 %)33.6 · 86
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience49
- Career regular-season games (65 %)60
- Career playoff games (25 %)26
- NHL seasons (10 %)37
OV — Overall70
- SC · Scoring (20 %)74
- PA · Passing (20 %)77
- DF · Defense (20 %)84
- SK · Skating (12 %)65
- FO · Faceoffs (10 %)45
- EN · Endurance (8 %)71
- DI · Discipline (5 %)76
- ST · Strength (3 %)65
- CK · Checking (2 %)55
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
1.3
wins above replacement
122 of 615
PAL Rating
59/ 100
Performance · Around average
178 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
76/ 100
Very good contract
0.89 M$ · expected PAL 35
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 38
- Defense
- 84
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 53
- Creation
- 3
- Shooting
- 46
- Possession
- 65
- Defense
- 85
- Discipline
- 43
- Power play
- 48
- Penalty kill
- 74
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
55/ 100
Average
better than 55% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
38/ 100
Below average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
62/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 189 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 60
- Shot selection
- 24
- Penalties drawn
- 47
- Puck management
- 69
Defense
- Takeaways
- 88
- Discipline
- 68
- Safe zone exits
- 15
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
1.3
wins above replacement
0.6 to 2.1 — 90% interval
122 of 615 forwards
+6.8 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -0.5
- EV defense
- +1.0
- Power play
- -0.3
- Penalty kill
- 0.0
- Shooting
- +4.3
- Penalties
- +0.2
- Average → replacement
- +2.1
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 60 | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.1 | 122/615 |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 4 | -0.0 | -0.1 to 0.0 | 408/596 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 133.0 km/h53rd percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 33.7 km/h14th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 2364th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 46.7 %92nd percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 78.7 km84th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 6.05 km91st percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 44.4 %95th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 18.4 %67th percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 34.9 %96th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 4087th percentile | 474th percentile | 10.0 %32nd percentile |
| High danger | 1485th percentile | 386th percentile | 21.4 %59th percentile |
| Mid range | 1793rd percentile | 177th percentile | 5.9 %34th percentile |
| Long range | 383rd percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %87th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
VGK
CBJ
OTT
LAK
ANA
SJS
WSH
PHI
MTL
TOR
FLA
UTA
DAL
MIN
CHINoah Ostlund: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Noah Ostlund have in 2026-27?
Noah Ostlund has 4 goals and 10 points (6 assists) in 17 games in 2026-27.
How old is Noah Ostlund?
Noah Ostlund is 22 years old: he was born on March 11, 2004.
How tall is Noah Ostlund, and how much does he weigh?
Noah Ostlund is 5'11" (180 cm) and weighs 183 lb (83 kg).
Where is Noah Ostlund from?
Sweden: Noah Ostlund was born in Stockholm, Sweden.
What team does Noah Ostlund play for?
Noah Ostlund plays for the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL, at C, wearing number 86.
Is Noah Ostlund injured?
No: Noah Ostlund is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Noah Ostlund?
Noah Ostlund produced 1.3 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 122nd of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 59 out of 100: around average for his position.
How much does Noah Ostlund make?
Noah Ostlund earns $887K for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 76 out of 100 (very good contract): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Noah Ostlund's contract end?
Noah Ostlund's contract runs through the 2026-27 season; he will then be a restricted free agent.
Is Noah Ostlund overpaid?
No, he gives more than he costs. His Value rating is 76 out of 100 (very good contract), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Noah Ostlund a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 122nd of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
How has Noah Ostlund played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Noah Ostlund has 6 points (2 goals, 4 assists).
What are Noah Ostlund's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Noah Ostlund has 85 games, 15 goals, 22 assists and 37 points. His best season: 2025-26, with 27 points in 60 games.
Where was Noah Ostlund drafted?
Noah Ostlund was drafted 16th overall (round 1) by Buffalo Sabres in 2022.
Is Noah Ostlund better at home or on the road?
On the road: in 2026-27, he averages 0.44 points per game at home (4 in 9 games) and 0.75 on the road (6 in 8 games).
How does Noah Ostlund perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Noah Ostlund has 3 games and 2 points in his career. His pace (0.67 points per game) is higher than his regular-season pace (0.44).
Which player is most similar to Noah Ostlund?
Justin Hryckowian: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Justin Hryckowian's page →Is Noah Ostlund a good fantasy pick?
A useful depth pick: our projection has him at 37 points in 2026-27, or 0.53 points per game.
What is Noah Ostlund's nationality?
Noah Ostlund is Swedish. Internationally: Sweden — gold medal at the 2022 IIHF World U18 Championships; silver medal at the 2024 World Junior Ice Hockey Championships.
How many championships has Noah Ostlund won?
2: Gold medal — 2022 IIHF World U18 Championships (Sweden); Silver medal — 2024 World Junior Ice Hockey Championships (Sweden).
Where did Noah Ostlund play before turning pro?
Djurgårdens IF J20 — 2021–22 season (32 games, 9 goals and 33 assists); made professional debut with Djurgårdens IF during the 2021–22 season (11 games).
How many points is Noah Ostlund projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 37 points in 70 games in 2026-27 (20 to 54 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Buffalo Sabres teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)