Justin
Danforth
R · BUF · Balanced · Below average
- PAL
- 25
- WAR
- -0.1
- Value
- 37
- PTS
- 21
2024-25№ 477 / 596
Justin Danforth (Buffalo Sabres) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Justin Danforth
#15RPlays: Centre and right wing · 62% of faceoffs
Buffalo Sabres
HEIGHT : 173 cm · WEIGHT : 88 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : March 14, 1993 · Oshawa, Canada
Contract : $1,800,000 · 2025-26 → 2026-27 · Standard Contract · UFA
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Buffalo Sabres | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2024-25 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 61 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 18 |
| 2023-24 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 71 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 26 |
| 2022-23 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 2021-22 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 45 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| NHL totals | 193 | 31 | 33 | 64 | 62 | |
Justin Danforth: our analysis
2024-25 season: 61 GP, 9 G, 12 A, 21 PTS, -6 +/-, 14:23 TOI. WAR -0.1 (477th of 596) · PAL 25, below average.
In 2024-25, Justin Danforth, 33, posts a PAL Rating of 25 out of 100 (below average), and his WAR of -0.1 ranks 477th among 596 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
His strengths: defense (67, above average). On the other hand, discipline (5, among the weakest in the league) and penalty kill (7, among the weakest in the league) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV offense (+1.2); his biggest cost: finishing (-2.8).
A marked decline: his PAL was 42 in 2023-24, against 25 now; his WAR went from 0.2 to -0.1.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 37 (poor return) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Justin Danforth's story
Growing up in Oshawa, Justin Danforth skated from age four and moved through the local minor system into the Ontario Junior Hockey League with the Cobourg Cougars. He stood out in the OJHL, earning tournament MVP honours at the Central Canada Cup in 2012 after leading the East Division all‑star squad, and was named to the OJHL Second All‑Star Team at the end of 2013–14. Those achievements helped him secure an NCAA opportunity: on June 3, 2013 he committed to Sacred Heart while pursuing studies in sports management.
Danforth made an immediate impact at Sacred Heart in 2013–14, finishing his freshman year as the team's top point producer and collecting Atlantic Hockey Rookie of the Year and All‑Rookie Team distinctions. He registered 22 points as a sophomore, then broke out for 41 points in his junior season, including a hat trick on January 16, 2016, and earned All‑Conference Second Team recognition. As a senior he served as an assistant captain, reached the 100‑point collegiate milestone on November 22, 2016, and was named to the Atlantic Hockey First All‑Conference Team.
After college he accepted multiple amateur tryouts—three games with the Reading Royals in the ECHL, then short stints with Bridgeport and Rochester in the AHL—before his tryout with Rochester was converted to an AHL contract on April 22, 2017. The 2017–18 campaign saw him shuttle between the AHL and ECHL while leading ECHL rookies in scoring, earning a spot in the All‑Star Game and being voted ECHL Rookie of the Year and onto All‑ECHL honours. On May 8, 2018 he signed with Lukko in Finland's Liiga, later extending his stay and serving as an alternate captain; his 27 goals in 2019–20 ranked second in the league.
Danforth moved to the KHL on May 2, 2020 with HC Vityaz and led that club in 2020–21 with 55 points in 58 games, ranking sixth overall in the league. He returned to North America and signed his first NHL contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets on May 3, 2021, made his NHL debut on November 15, 2021, and scored his first NHL goal on November 19, 2021. Internationally, he represented Canada at the World Junior A Challenge in 2011 (silver) and 2012, and won gold at the 2021 IIHF World Championship.
Danforth's game reads as a scoring‑first profile: he has consistently produced points at every level, showing finishing touch in front of goal and playmaking ability that have translated from junior and college into pro leagues across Europe and North America.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 9:09
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:01
- SH TOI/GP
- 0:58
- Pts/GP
- 0.00
- EV points
- 0
- Hits
- 3
- Blocks
- 2
- Takeaways
- 1
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 49.4 %
- Off. zone starts
- 15.1 %
- Faceoffs
- 50.0 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
7between 0 and 15 (80% range)
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 4
- Games
- 33
So far: 0 pts in 6 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.25 pts per game (last season: 0.00).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Slight decline
- Points per game: 0.37 in 23-24, 0.34 in 24-25
- PAL Rating: 42 → 25
Outlook, age included
↓ DecliningAge 33: the age when production usually declines
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2024-25
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
Injured reserve· Upper Body· expected back November 22
OV · OverallConfidence 65 %
71
Established NHL
- SK
- Skating
- 87
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 70
- Confidence 70 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 71
- Confidence 67 %
- DU
- Durability
- 62
- Confidence 73 %
- CK
- Checking
- 82
- Confidence 70 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 71
- Confidence 46 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 62
- Confidence 70 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 73
- Confidence 71 %
- PA
- Passing
- 71
- Confidence 65 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 66
- Confidence 65 %
- DF
- Defense
- 76
- Confidence 61 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 53
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating87
- Top speed (35 %)36.4 · 81
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)10.3 · 91
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.3 · 76
- Speed consistency (15 %)35.7 · 80
ST — Strength70
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.496 · 77
- Body mass (50 %)-0.945 · 67
EN — Endurance71
- Ice time per game (45 %)14.2 · 71
- Total ice time (20 %)797 · 67
- Shift length (15 %)44.9 · 72
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)13.8 · 76
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.027 · 73
DU — Durability62
- Share of games played (100 %)0.711 · 62
CK — Checking82
- Hits /60 (70 %)7.032 · 82
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)5.978 · 81
- Season volume (10 %)4.771 · 81
FG — Fighting71
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.752 · 71
DI — Discipline62
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)-0.03 · 60
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.643 · 75
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.47 · 56
FO — Faceoffs73
- Faceoff % (85 %)49.4 · 73
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)37.5 · 73
PA — Passing71
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.559 · 67
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.442 · 73
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.105 · 78
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)3.839 · 66
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.474 · 75
SC — Scoring66
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.734 · 65
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.814 · 71
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.5 · 61
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.377 · 77
- xG per shot (10 %)0.082 · 82
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)11.7 · 61
DF — Defense76
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.048 · 80
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.159 · 82
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.715 · 69
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.164 · 47
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-0.688 · 82
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)60.6 · 67
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)3.294 · 87
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)29.3 · 76
EX — Experience53
- Career regular-season games (65 %)74
- Career playoff games (25 %)0
- NHL seasons (10 %)55
OV — Overall71
- SC · Scoring (28 %)66
- PA · Passing (22 %)71
- DF · Defense (18 %)76
- SK · Skating (12 %)87
- EN · Endurance (8 %)71
- DI · Discipline (5 %)62
- ST · Strength (4 %)70
- CK · Checking (3 %)82
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 71 | 87 | 66 | 76 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 87 | 70 | 78 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2024-25
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
PAL Rating
25/ 100
Performance · Below average
327 of 451 at the position
Value Rating
37/ 100
Poor return
1.10 M$ · expected PAL 38
ProfileBalancedNeither end dominates
- Offense
- 33
- Defense
- 55
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 27
- Creation
- 60
- Shooting
- 26
- Possession
- 47
- Defense
- 67
- Discipline
- 5
- Power play
- 28
- Penalty kill
- 7
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | CBJ | -0.1 | 25 | 37 | 1.10 M$ |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 0.2 | 42 | 55 | 0.98 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2024-25
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
41/ 100
Average
better than 41% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
37/ 100
Below average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
49/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 234 of 399 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 48
- Shot selection
- 76
- Penalties drawn
- 1
- Puck management
- 60
Defense
- Takeaways
- 10
- Discipline
- 53
- Safe zone exits
- 86
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | CBJ | 41 | 37 | 49 |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 77 | 70 | 69 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-0.0
wins above replacement
-0.1 to 0.0 — 90% interval
418 of 615 forwards
-0.1 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +0.0
- EV defense
- +0.0
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- -0.1
- Shooting
- -0.1
- Penalties
- -0.2
- Average → replacement
- +0.1
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 4 | -0.0 | -0.1 to 0.0 | 418/615 |
| 2024-25 | CBJ | 57 | -0.1 | -0.7 to 0.7 | 477/596 |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 71 | 0.2 | -0.4 to 0.9 | 305/608 |
| 2022-23 | CBJ | 6 | 0.1 | -0.3 to 0.4 | 306/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 106.2 km/h5th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.4 km/h58th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 1440th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 40.8 %37th percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 14.3 km15th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 3.25 km14th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 43.5 %87th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 17.6 %28th percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 41.7 %29th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 15th percentile | 024th percentile | 0.0 %3rd percentile |
| High danger | 08th percentile | 034th percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
| Mid range | 119th percentile | 054th percentile | 0.0 %32nd percentile |
| Long range | 031st percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
MTL
TOR
UTA
DAL
MINJustin Danforth: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Justin Danforth have in 2026-27?
Justin Danforth has 0 goals and 0 points (0 assists) in 6 games in 2026-27.
How old is Justin Danforth?
Justin Danforth is 33 years old: he was born on March 15, 1993.
How tall is Justin Danforth, and how much does he weigh?
Justin Danforth is 5'8" (173 cm) and weighs 194 lb (88 kg).
Where is Justin Danforth from?
Canada: Justin Danforth was born in Oshawa, Ontario, Canada.
What team does Justin Danforth play for?
Justin Danforth plays for the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL, at R, wearing number 15.
Is Justin Danforth injured?
Yes: Justin Danforth is on injured reserve (upper body). He is expected back around November 22.
How good is Justin Danforth?
Justin Danforth produced -0.0 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 418th of 615 players at his position in the NHL.
How much does Justin Danforth make?
Justin Danforth carries a cap hit of $1.8M per season, on a contract worth $3.6M in total over 2 years.
When does Justin Danforth's contract end?
Justin Danforth's contract runs through the 2026-27 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent.
Is Justin Danforth a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 418th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Justin Danforth getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 42 in 2023-24 to 25 in 2024-25 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Justin Danforth played lately?
Over his last 6 games, Justin Danforth has 0 points (0 goals, 0 assists).
What are Justin Danforth's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Justin Danforth has 193 games, 31 goals, 33 assists and 64 points. His best season: 2023-24, with 26 points in 71 games.
How does Justin Danforth perform in the playoffs?
Justin Danforth has not played in the NHL playoffs yet.
Is Justin Danforth a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 7 points in 2026-27, or 0.21 points per game.
Does Justin Danforth have siblings?
Yes: his older brother Brandon (played hockey and lacrosse growing up).
Is Justin Danforth related to anyone famous?
Yes: Kent (father, played lacrosse as a youth).
What is Justin Danforth's nationality?
Justin Danforth is Canadian. Internationally: Canada — silver medal at the 2011 World Junior A Challenge; fourth place at the 2012 World Junior A Challenge; gold medal at the 2021 IIHF World Championship.
What awards has Justin Danforth won?
ECHL Rookie of the Year — 2018 ; ECHL All-Rookie Team — 2018 ; All-ECHL Second Team — 2018 ; AHA (Atlantic Hockey) Rookie of the Year — 2014 ; AHA All-Rookie Team — 2014 ; Atlantic Hockey Player of the Month — January 2016 ; Atlantic Hockey All-Conference Second Team — 2016 ; Atlantic Hockey All-Conference First Team — 2017; and more.
How many championships has Justin Danforth won?
2: Central Canada Cup tournament title with the OJHL East Division All-Star Team — 2012; IIHF World Championship gold medal with Canada — 2021.
Where did Justin Danforth play before turning pro?
Oshawa Minor Generals (Midget AAA); Cobourg Cougars (OJHL) — began in 2009–10; Sacred Heart University (NCAA) — committed June 3, 2013, four seasons (2013–14 to 2016–17).
How many points is Justin Danforth projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 7 points in 33 games in 2026-27 (0 to 15 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Buffalo Sabres teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)