John
Carlson
D · TBL · Offensive · Elite
- PAL
- 94
- WAR
- 2.0
- Value
- 93
- PTS
- 14
2025-26№ 21 / 325
John Carlson (Tampa Bay Lightning) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
John Carlson
HEIGHT : 191 cm · WEIGHT : 102 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : January 9, 1990 · Natick, United States
Drafted : 2008 · WSH · round 1, pick #27
Contract : $8,500,000 · 2026-27 → 2027-28 · Standard Contract · UFA · Signing bonus $7,500,000NMC
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 17 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 2025-26 | Anaheim Ducks | 16 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 6 |
| 2025-26 | Washington Capitals | 55 | 10 | 36 | 46 | 26 |
| 2024-25 | Washington Capitals | 79 | 5 | 46 | 51 | 22 |
| 2023-24 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 10 | 42 | 52 | 40 |
| 2022-23 | Washington Capitals | 40 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 12 |
| 2021-22 | Washington Capitals | 78 | 17 | 54 | 71 | 20 |
| 2020-21 | Washington Capitals | 52 | 10 | 34 | 44 | 12 |
| 2019-20 | Washington Capitals | 69 | 15 | 60 | 75 | 26 |
| 2018-19 | Washington Capitals | 80 | 13 | 57 | 70 | 34 |
| 2017-18 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 15 | 53 | 68 | 32 |
| 2016-17 | Washington Capitals | 72 | 9 | 28 | 37 | 10 |
| 2015-16 | Washington Capitals | 56 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 14 |
| 2014-15 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 12 | 43 | 55 | 28 |
| 2013-14 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 22 |
| 2012-13 | Washington Capitals | 48 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 18 |
| 2011-12 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 22 |
| 2010-11 | Washington Capitals | 82 | 7 | 30 | 37 | 44 |
| 2009-10 | Washington Capitals | 22 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| NHL totals | 1175 | 175 | 620 | 795 | 398 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Anaheim Ducks | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 2024-25 | Washington Capitals | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 2023-24 | Washington Capitals | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2021-22 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 2020-21 | Washington Capitals | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 2019-20 | Washington Capitals | 5 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| 2018-19 | Washington Capitals | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 2017-18 | Washington Capitals | 24 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 8 |
| 2016-17 | Washington Capitals | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 2015-16 | Washington Capitals | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 4 |
| 2014-15 | Washington Capitals | 14 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 2012-13 | Washington Capitals | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2011-12 | Washington Capitals | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 2010-11 | Washington Capitals | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 2009-10 | Washington Capitals | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Playoff totals | 149 | 21 | 63 | 84 | 60 | |
Honours
- 🏆 Stanley Cuponce · 2017-18
John Carlson: our analysis
2025-26 season: 16 GP, 4 G, 10 A, 14 PTS, -2 +/-, 24:11 TOI. WAR 2.0 (21st of 325) · PAL 94, elite.
In 2025-26, John Carlson, 36, posts a PAL Rating of 94 out of 100 (elite), and his WAR of 2.0 ranks 21st among 325 regulars, in the top quarter.
His strengths: creation (97, among the best in the league), offense (96, among the best in the league) and power play (96, among the best in the league). On the other hand, penalty kill (4, among the weakest in the league) and discipline (32, below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV offense (+9.0); his biggest cost: penalties (-1.5).
A season in line with 2024-25 (PAL of 92); his WAR went from 0.9 to 2.0.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 93 (exceptional value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
John Carlson's story
Growing up first in Marlborough before his family moved to New Jersey, Carlson learned to skate and rose through local youth ranks with the New Jersey Rockets. He spent his final junior season with the Indiana Ice in the USHL, a campaign that brought him significant attention from NHL scouts and opened the door to major junior hockey in London, Ontario.
Drafted in the first round, 27th overall, by the Washington Capitals in 2008, Carlson signed an entry-level contract during his first season with the London Knights. He made his professional debut with the Hershey Bears in the Calder Cup playoffs and was part of Hershey's championship runs in 2009 and again in 2010 before establishing himself full-time in the NHL.
Carlson played his first NHL game on 20 November 2009 and scored his first NHL goal on 25 March 2010. Over the following years he became a mainstay on Washington's blue line, piling up minutes, power-play points and durable seasons. The high point of his time with the Capitals came in 2018 when he helped the club lift the Stanley Cup, finishing the playoffs as the highest-scoring defenseman. Contract extensions followed — a six-year deal in 2012 and an eight-year extension in June 2018 — and he was named an alternate captain at the start of the 2019–20 season.
Internationally, Carlson represented the United States at the 2010 World Junior Championship and was named to the U.S. Olympic team in 2014. His long tenure in Washington ended in early 2026 when he was traded to the Anaheim Ducks on 6 March.
On the ice, Carlson is best known as an offensively inclined defenseman who eats up ice time and quarterbacks the power play. He consistently contributes assists and joins the rush, while also being relied upon to match up against opponents' top forwards and take on heavy minutes in all situations.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 19:18
- PP TOI/GP
- 3:56
- SH TOI/GP
- 0:03
- Pts/GP
- 0.59
- EV points
- 7
- Hits
- 13
- Blocks
- 15
- Takeaways
- 1
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 56.2 %
- Off. zone starts
- 44.2 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
54between 36 and 70 (80% range)
- Goals
- 17
- Assists
- 37
- Games
- 79
So far: 10 pts in 17 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.72 pts per game (last season: 0.85).
Three straight seasons of growth. Since 2018, of 97 players in that spot, 23 kept improving the next season; on average, their pace fell back to 90% of their best season.
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Slightly up
- Points per game: 0.63 in 23-24, 0.85 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 92 → 94
Outlook, age included
→ StableAge 36: the age when production usually declines
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 86 %
79
Established NHL
- SK
- Skating
- 70
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 73
- Confidence 89 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 89
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 79
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 62
- Confidence 89 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 62
- Confidence 63 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 77
- Confidence 89 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- —
- PA
- Passing
- 90
- Confidence 86 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 88
- Confidence 86 %
- DF
- Defense
- 60
- Confidence 84 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 61
- Confidence 33 %
- EX
- Experience
- 98
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating70
- Top speed (35 %)35.6 · 78
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)1.507 · 69
- Distance /60 (20 %)13.7 · 61
- Speed consistency (15 %)34.2 · 70
ST — Strength73
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)3.199 · 57
- Body mass (50 %)1.357 · 86
EN — Endurance89
- Ice time per game (45 %)22 · 88
- Total ice time (20 %)1,572 · 80
- Shift length (15 %)53.4 · 89
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)21.2 · 89
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)4.763 · 93
DU — Durability79
- Share of games played (100 %)0.842 · 79
CK — Checking62
- Hits /60 (70 %)1.772 · 61
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)1.406 · 62
- Season volume (10 %)3.296 · 64
FG — Fighting62
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.681 · 62
DI — Discipline77
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)-0.033 · 77
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.526 · 80
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.335 · 69
PA — Passing90
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.716 · 89
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.753 · 90
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.319 · 96
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.321 · 81
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.429 · 88
SC — Scoring88
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.372 · 87
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.362 · 90
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.004 · 65
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)0.27 · 90
- xG per shot (10 %)0.038 · 89
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)13 · 87
DF — Defense60
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)-0.061 · 64
- Relative xG against (20 %)0.079 · 68
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.783 · 62
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.35 · 49
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-2.196 · 69
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)59 · 70
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)4.616 · 77
PS — Penalty shot61
- Shootouts (60 %)30.7 · 59
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience98
- Career regular-season games (65 %)100
- Career playoff games (25 %)94
- NHL seasons (10 %)98
OV — Overall79
- DF · Defense (30 %)60
- PA · Passing (22 %)90
- SK · Skating (12 %)70
- SC · Scoring (12 %)88
- EN · Endurance (9 %)89
- ST · Strength (6 %)73
- DI · Discipline (5 %)77
- CK · Checking (4 %)62
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 70 | 88 | 60 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 68 | 82 | 58 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 65 | 87 | 57 |
| 2022-23 | 76 | 64 | 92 | 59 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
2.0
wins above replacement
21 of 325
PAL Rating
94/ 100
Performance · Elite
14 of 250 at the position
Value Rating
93/ 100
Exceptional value
8.00 M$ · expected PAL 72
ProfileOffensiveValue comes mostly from offense
- Offense
- 98
- Defense
- 37
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 96
- Creation
- 97
- Shooting
- 93
- Possession
- 90
- Defense
- 32
- Discipline
- 32
- Power play
- 96
- Penalty kill
- 4
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | ANA | 2.0 | 94 | 93 | 8.00 M$ |
| 2024-25 | WSH | 0.9 | 92 | 79 | 8.00 M$ |
| 2023-24 | WSH | 1.1 | 83 | 57 | 8.00 M$ |
| 2022-23 | WSH | 0.6 | 93 | 84 | 8.00 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
92/ 100
Elite
better than 92% of defensemen, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
86/ 100
Very good
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
90/ 100
Elite
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Why 92, higher than both scores? Overall IQ isn't an average, it's a rank: 17 of 225 defensemen. Few players are good at both ends at once; being so puts John Carlson ahead of almost everyone else.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 96
- Shot selection
- 93
- Penalties drawn
- 22
- Puck management
- 23
Defense
- Takeaways
- 99
- Discipline
- 35
- Safe zone exits
- 58
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | ANA | 92 | 86 | 90 |
| 2024-25 | WSH | 96 | 94 | 90 |
| 2023-24 | WSH | 85 | 78 | 75 |
| 2022-23 | WSH | 90 | 89 | 81 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
2.0
wins above replacement
0.7 to 3.6 — 90% interval
21 of 325 defensemen
+10.6 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +9.0
- EV defense
- -1.2
- Power play
- +1.0
- Penalty kill
- -1.4
- Shooting
- +1.5
- Penalties
- -1.5
- Average → replacement
- +3.3
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | ANA | 71 | 2.0 | 0.7 to 3.6 | 21/325 |
| 2024-25 | WSH | 77 | 0.9 | 0.1 to 1.7 | 55/314 |
| 2023-24 | WSH | 82 | 1.1 | 0.1 to 2.1 | 42/316 |
| 2022-23 | WSH | 40 | 0.6 | -0.5 to 2.0 | 66/334 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 152.8 km/h90th percentileleague avg. 139.7 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 34.2 km/h55th percentileleague avg. 34.0 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 329th percentileleague avg. 8
- Offensive zone time
- 46.4 %95th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 69.5 km58th percentileleague avg. 56.1 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 5.38 km65th percentileleague avg. 4.98 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 43.2 %67th percentileleague avg. 42.8 %
- Neutral zone time
- 18.3 %60th percentileleague avg. 16.9 %
- Defensive zone time
- 35.3 %95th percentileleague avg. 40.8 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 3895th percentile | 599th percentile | 13.2 %91st percentile |
| High danger | 7100th percentile | 198th percentile | 14.3 %63rd percentile |
| Mid range | 1093rd percentile | 297th percentile | 20.0 %77th percentile |
| Long range | 1792nd percentile | 299th percentile | 11.8 %93rd percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
WPG
MIN
CHI
DET
NSH
UTA
COL
VGK
VAN
SEA
NYR
NYI
PHI
WSHJohn Carlson: frequently asked questions
How many goals does John Carlson have in 2026-27?
John Carlson has 5 goals and 10 points (5 assists) in 17 games in 2026-27.
How old is John Carlson?
John Carlson is 36 years old: he was born on January 10, 1990.
How tall is John Carlson, and how much does he weigh?
John Carlson is 6'3" (191 cm) and weighs 225 lb (102 kg).
Where is John Carlson from?
United States: John Carlson was born in Natick, Massachusetts, United States.
What team does John Carlson play for?
John Carlson plays for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL, at D, wearing number 74.
Is John Carlson injured?
No: John Carlson is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is John Carlson?
John Carlson produced 2.0 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 21st of 325 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 94 out of 100: elite for his position.
How much does John Carlson make?
John Carlson earns $8.0M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 93 out of 100 (exceptional value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does John Carlson's contract end?
John Carlson's contract runs through the 2027-28 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent. It includes a NMC clause.
Is John Carlson overpaid?
No, he gives more than he costs. His Value rating is 93 out of 100 (exceptional value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is John Carlson a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 21st of 325 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is John Carlson getting better?
He is holding steady: his PAL rating went from 92 in 2024-25 to 94 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has John Carlson played lately?
Over his last 10 games, John Carlson has 6 points (3 goals, 3 assists).
What are John Carlson's career stats?
Over his NHL career, John Carlson has 1,175 games, 175 goals, 620 assists and 795 points. His best season: 2019-20, with 75 points in 69 games.
Where was John Carlson drafted?
John Carlson was drafted 27th overall (round 1) by Washington Capitals in 2008.
Is John Carlson better at home or on the road?
No real difference: in 2026-27, he averages 0.63 points per game at home (5 in 8 games) and 0.56 on the road (5 in 9 games).
How does John Carlson perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, John Carlson has 149 games and 84 points in his career. His pace (0.56 points per game) is lower than his regular-season pace (0.68).
Which player is most similar to John Carlson?
Darren Raddysh: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Darren Raddysh's page →Is John Carlson a good fantasy pick?
A useful depth pick: our projection has him at 54 points in 2026-27, or 0.68 points per game.
Does John Carlson have siblings?
Yes: his brother Andrew Carlson (played junior hockey for the New Jersey Rockets).
Is John Carlson married?
Yes, married to Gina Nucci (2014).
What is John Carlson's nationality?
John Carlson is American. Internationally: United States — gold medal at the 2010 World Junior Championships (scored overtime winner in the final); played at the 2014 Winter Olympics (4th place); represented the U.S. at junior tournaments in 2007 (Ivan Hlinka, World Junior A Challenge); named to the 2016 World Cup of Hockey team.
What awards has John Carlson won?
Atlantic Junior Hockey League Offensive Defenseman of the Year (2006–07) ; USHL Second All‑Star Team and All‑Rookie Team (2007–08) ; OHL Rookie of the Month (December 2008) ; Named to the OHL Second All‑Star Team, OHL First All‑Rookie Team and CHL All‑Rookie Team (2008–09) ; AHL All‑Rookie Team (2010) ; NHL First All‑Star Team (2019–20) ; NHL First Star of the Month (October 2019).
How many championships has John Carlson won?
3: Calder Cup with the Hershey Bears (2009); Calder Cup with the Hershey Bears (2010); Stanley Cup with the Washington Capitals (2018).
Where did John Carlson play before turning pro?
New Jersey Rockets (Atlantic Youth Hockey League, youth); Indiana Ice (USHL, 2007–08 season); London Knights (OHL, 2008–09 season).
How many points is John Carlson projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 54 points in 79 games in 2026-27 (36 to 70 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Tampa Bay Lightning teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)