Erik
Cernak
D · TBL · Defensive · Around average
- PAL
- 52
- WAR
- -0.3
- Value
- 34
- PTS
- 11
2025-26№ 281 / 325
Erik Cernak (Tampa Bay Lightning) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Erik Cernak
HEIGHT : 193 cm · WEIGHT : 105 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : May 27, 1997 · Kosice, Slovakia
Drafted : 2015 · LAK · round 2, pick #43
Contract : $5,200,000 · 2023-24 → 2030-31 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFA · Signing bonus $5,500,000NTC / M-NTC
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 16 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 61 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 74 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 76 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 50 |
| 2023-24 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 69 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 63 |
| 2022-23 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 70 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 53 |
| 2021-22 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 55 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 46 |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 46 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 38 |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 67 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 59 |
| 2018-19 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 58 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 58 |
| NHL totals | 517 | 26 | 99 | 125 | 445 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2023-24 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2022-23 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021-22 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 21 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 25 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 2018-19 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Playoff totals | 91 | 3 | 19 | 22 | 50 | |
Honours
- 🏆 Stanley Cup2 times · 2020-21, 2019-20
Erik Cernak: our analysis
2025-26 season: 61 GP, 3 G, 8 A, 11 PTS, +3 +/-, 17:37 TOI. WAR -0.3 (281st of 325) · PAL 52, around average.
In 2025-26, Erik Cernak, 29, posts a PAL Rating of 52 out of 100 (around average), and his WAR of -0.3 ranks 281st among 325 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
His strengths: defense (85, among the best in the league) and penalty kill (79, well above average). On the other hand, discipline (2, among the weakest in the league) and offense (22, well below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+1.9); his biggest cost: penalties (-2.9).
A marked decline: his PAL was 61 in 2024-25, against 52 now; his WAR went from -0.1 to -0.3.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 34 (poor return) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Erik Cernak's story
Raised in Košice, Erik Černák came up through HC Košice’s youth ranks and spent a season in Slovan Bratislava’s junior setup before returning to Košice in 2013. He made his senior debut in 2013–14 and split time that season between his club and Orange 20, Slovakia’s under-20 national project. Those early campaigns in his home country set the stage for a move to North America.
Following a 2014–15 season that included 5 goals and 13 points in 43 Extraliga games, Černák was ranked among the top prospects for the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. Los Angeles picked him 43rd overall in the second round and signed him to a three-year entry-level contract on 14 July 2015. He was also selected by the Erie Otters in the CHL European draft and spent two seasons in the Ontario Hockey League, winning the J. Ross Robertson Cup in 2017.
On 26 February 2017 the Kings traded Černák, along with Peter Budaj and a seventh-round choice, to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for goaltender Ben Bishop and a fifth-round pick. He continued his development in the AHL with Syracuse and made his NHL debut for Tampa Bay on 13 November 2018 against Buffalo. His first NHL point, an assist, came on 19 November 2018 versus Nashville, and he scored his first NHL goal on 2 February 2019 at Madison Square Garden against the New York Rangers.
Černák was part of Tampa Bay rosters that captured the Stanley Cup in 2020 and again in 2021. Contract milestones include a three-year, $8.85 million deal signed on 22 December 2020 and an eight-year, $41.6 million extension signed on 13 July 2022. He also represents Slovakia at international competitions.
A trained defenceman, Černák has accumulated goals and assists at professional levels in Europe and the NHL. Hockey runs in the family: his cousin Christián Jaroš has also played in the NHL.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 18:39
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:04
- SH TOI/GP
- 2:31
- Pts/GP
- 0.44
- EV points
- 7
- Hits
- 30
- Blocks
- 23
- Takeaways
- 2
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 57.5 %
- Off. zone starts
- 30.2 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
20between 10 and 29 (80% range)
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 17
- Games
- 72
So far: 7 pts in 16 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.23 pts per game (last season: 0.18).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Stable
- Points per game: 0.19 in 23-24, 0.18 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 61 → 52
Outlook, age included
→ StableAge 29: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 83 %
76
Established NHL
- SK
- Skating
- 77
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 87
- Confidence 86 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 70
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 74
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 89
- Confidence 86 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 87
- Confidence 63 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 57
- Confidence 86 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- —
- PA
- Passing
- 63
- Confidence 83 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 65
- Confidence 83 %
- DF
- Defense
- 85
- Confidence 80 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 86
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating77
- Top speed (35 %)35.5 · 76
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)1.833 · 75
- Distance /60 (20 %)14.2 · 76
- Speed consistency (15 %)35.1 · 81
ST — Strength87
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.983 · 74
- Body mass (50 %)1.805 · 89
EN — Endurance70
- Ice time per game (45 %)18.1 · 71
- Total ice time (20 %)1,046 · 69
- Shift length (15 %)44.1 · 62
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)17.2 · 74
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.614 · 78
DU — Durability74
- Share of games played (100 %)0.808 · 74
CK — Checking89
- Hits /60 (70 %)6.625 · 89
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)5.752 · 89
- Season volume (10 %)4.727 · 85
FG — Fighting87
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)1.428 · 87
DI — Discipline57
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)-0.092 · 57
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.949 · 59
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.409 · 77
PA — Passing63
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.286 · 65
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.367 · 70
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)-0.122 · 60
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.131 · 75
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.19 · 69
SC — Scoring65
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.164 · 67
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.156 · 63
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.123 · 72
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)0.101 · 75
- xG per shot (10 %)0.034 · 69
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)7.872 · 61
DF — Defense85
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.09 · 82
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.131 · 83
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.418 · 87
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.104 · 65
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.502 · 86
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)55.7 · 85
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)5.033 · 80
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience86
- Career regular-season games (65 %)88
- Career playoff games (25 %)85
- NHL seasons (10 %)75
OV — Overall76
- DF · Defense (30 %)85
- PA · Passing (22 %)63
- SK · Skating (12 %)77
- SC · Scoring (12 %)65
- EN · Endurance (9 %)70
- ST · Strength (6 %)87
- DI · Discipline (5 %)57
- CK · Checking (4 %)89
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 77 | 65 | 85 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 77 | 56 | 84 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 77 | 52 | 76 |
| 2022-23 | 76 | 81 | 59 | 77 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
-0.3
wins above replacement
281 of 325
PAL Rating
52/ 100
Performance · Around average
118 of 250 at the position
Value Rating
34/ 100
Poor return
5.20 M$ · expected PAL 65
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 32
- Defense
- 82
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 22
- Creation
- 28
- Shooting
- 45
- Possession
- 60
- Defense
- 85
- Discipline
- 2
- Power play
- 43
- Penalty kill
- 79
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | -0.3 | 52 | 34 | 5.20 M$ |
| 2024-25 | TBL | -0.1 | 61 | 40 | 5.20 M$ |
| 2023-24 | TBL | -0.1 | 20 | 9 | 5.20 M$ |
| 2022-23 | TBL | -0.3 | 39 | 25 | 2.95 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
18/ 100
Low
better than 18% of defensemen, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
22/ 100
Below average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
22/ 100
Below average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 184 of 225 defensemen.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 27
- Shot selection
- 64
- Penalties drawn
- 38
- Puck management
- 8
Defense
- Takeaways
- 55
- Discipline
- 13
- Safe zone exits
- 47
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 51 | 38 | 59 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 31 | 47 | 28 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-0.3
wins above replacement
-0.9 to 0.3 — 90% interval
281 of 325 defensemen
-1.6 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -2.7
- EV defense
- +1.9
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- -0.4
- Shooting
- +0.2
- Penalties
- -2.9
- Average → replacement
- +2.2
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 61 | -0.3 | -0.9 to 0.3 | 281/325 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 73 | -0.1 | -0.7 to 0.4 | 231/314 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 69 | -0.1 | -0.8 to 0.6 | 218/316 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 70 | -0.3 | -1.0 to 0.6 | 278/334 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 143.1 km/h57th percentileleague avg. 139.7 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.4 km/h80th percentileleague avg. 34.0 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 1169th percentileleague avg. 8
- Offensive zone time
- 41.8 %53rd percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 65.7 km53rd percentileleague avg. 56.1 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.91 km45th percentileleague avg. 4.98 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 44.1 %82nd percentileleague avg. 42.8 %
- Neutral zone time
- 18.6 %76th percentileleague avg. 16.9 %
- Defensive zone time
- 39.6 %59th percentileleague avg. 40.8 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1866th percentile | 049th percentile | 0.0 %27th percentile |
| High danger | 175th percentile | 084th percentile | 0.0 %60th percentile |
| Mid range | 473rd percentile | 073rd percentile | 0.0 %50th percentile |
| Long range | 1072nd percentile | 077th percentile | 0.0 %67th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
WPG
MIN
CHI
DET
UTA
COL
VGK
VAN
SEA
NYR
NYI
PHI
WSHErik Cernak: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Erik Cernak have in 2026-27?
Erik Cernak has 0 goals and 7 points (7 assists) in 16 games in 2026-27.
How old is Erik Cernak?
Erik Cernak is 29 years old: he was born on May 28, 1997.
How tall is Erik Cernak, and how much does he weigh?
Erik Cernak is 6'4" (193 cm) and weighs 231 lb (105 kg).
Where is Erik Cernak from?
Slovakia: Erik Cernak was born in Kosice, Slovakia.
What team does Erik Cernak play for?
Erik Cernak plays for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL, at D, wearing number 81.
Is Erik Cernak injured?
No: Erik Cernak is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Erik Cernak?
Erik Cernak produced -0.3 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 281st of 325 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 52 out of 100: around average for his position.
How much does Erik Cernak make?
Erik Cernak earns $5.2M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 34 out of 100 (poor return): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Erik Cernak's contract end?
Erik Cernak's contract runs through the 2030-31 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent. It includes a NTC / M-NTC clause.
Is Erik Cernak overpaid?
Yes, his output falls short of what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 34 out of 100 (poor return), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Erik Cernak a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 281st of 325 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Erik Cernak getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 61 in 2024-25 to 52 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Erik Cernak played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Erik Cernak has 6 points (0 goals, 6 assists).
What are Erik Cernak's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Erik Cernak has 517 games, 26 goals, 99 assists and 125 points. His best season: 2024-25, with 21 points in 76 games.
Where was Erik Cernak drafted?
Erik Cernak was drafted 43rd overall (round 2) by Los Angeles Kings in 2015.
Is Erik Cernak better at home or on the road?
At home: in 2026-27, he averages 0.50 points per game at home (4 in 8 games) and 0.38 on the road (3 in 8 games).
How does Erik Cernak perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Erik Cernak has 91 games and 22 points in his career. His pace (0.24 points per game) is similar to his regular-season pace (0.24).
Which player is most similar to Erik Cernak?
Connor Clifton: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Connor Clifton's page →Is Erik Cernak a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 20 points in 2026-27, or 0.28 points per game.
Is Erik Cernak related to anyone famous?
Yes: Christián Jaroš (cousin, previously played in the NHL for the Ottawa Senators, San Jose Sharks and New Jersey Devils).
What is Erik Cernak's nationality?
Erik Cernak is Slovak. Internationally: Slovak national junior under-20 team (Orange 20), 2013–14 season.
How many championships has Erik Cernak won?
2: Stanley Cup champion with the Tampa Bay Lightning (2020); Stanley Cup champion with the Tampa Bay Lightning (2021).
Where did Erik Cernak play before turning pro?
Youth career with HC Košice; one season in the junior youth team of Slovan Bratislava; returned to HC Košice's youth team on 11 June 2013; made senior professional debut with HC Košice in 2013–14 (season split between HC Košice and Orange 20).
How many points is Erik Cernak projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 20 points in 72 games in 2026-27 (10 to 29 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Tampa Bay Lightning teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)