Connor
Zary
C · CGY · Balanced · Around average
- PAL
- 42
- WAR
- 0.6
- Value
- 31
- PTS
- 25
2025-26№ 223 / 615
Connor Zary (Calgary Flames) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Connor Zary
#47CPlays: Winger · 19% of faceoffs
Calgary Flames
HEIGHT : 183 cm · WEIGHT : 81 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : September 24, 2001 · Saskatoon, Canada
Drafted : 2020 · CGY · round 1, pick #24
Contract : $3,775,000 · 2025-26 → 2027-28 · Standard Contract (Extension) · RFA (Arb) · Signing bonus $500,000
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Calgary Flames | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025-26 | Calgary Flames | 74 | 12 | 13 | 25 | 22 |
| 2024-25 | Calgary Flames | 54 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 |
| 2023-24 | Calgary Flames | 63 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 22 |
| NHL totals | 193 | 39 | 48 | 87 | 58 | |
Connor Zary: our analysis
2025-26 season: 74 GP, 12 G, 13 A, 25 PTS, -9 +/-, 14:22 TOI. WAR 0.6 (223rd of 615) · PAL 42, around average.
In 2025-26, Connor Zary, 25, posts a PAL Rating of 42 out of 100 (around average), and his WAR of 0.6 ranks 223rd among 615 regulars, in the top half.
His strengths: discipline (82, well above average) and defense (64, above average). On the other hand, offense (20, well below average) and shooting (37, below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: penalties (+1.2); his biggest cost: finishing (-1.9).
A marked decline: his PAL was 54 in 2024-25, against 42 now; his WAR, though, went from 0.5 to 0.6.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 31 (poor return) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Connor Zary's story
Growing up in Saskatoon, Connor Zary developed through local rinks before emerging as a reliable centre over three seasons with the Kamloops Blazers. Those junior campaigns shaped his skating, defensive awareness and playmaking enough that he entered the 2020 draft widely regarded as a promising prospect.
Ahead of selection, the NHL Central Scouting Bureau ranked him among the top North American skaters eligible in 2020. Calgary chose him 24th overall in that draft, and he inked a three-year entry-level contract with the Flames on 31 December 2020. He began the 2020–21 season with the Stockton Heat of the AHL but, after nine games, was returned to Kamloops to finish the year in the WHL.
Zary completed his first full professional season in 2021–22, recording 13 goals, 12 assists and 36 penalty minutes over 53 games for Stockton. That year the Heat led the Pacific Division with a 45-16-5-2 record and advanced to the conference final, where they fell in six games to the Chicago Wolves, who went on to win the Calder Cup; Zary contributed one goal and one assist in 13 playoff games.
He reached the NHL level on 1 November 2023, making his debut for the Flames and scoring his first NHL goal in a 4–3 loss to the Dallas Stars. His path since has included a game on 20 March 2026 in which he was removed after an injury following an incident involving a hook and subsequent boarding, and on 5 October 2026 he was placed on waivers by Calgary.
On the ice, Zary is defined by his two-way centre play: dependable positioning, mobility up and down the ice and a willingness to contribute defensively while creating chances offensively. Those traits explain how he progressed from junior prospect to pro opportunity.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 13:38
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:29
- SH TOI/GP
- 0:00
- Pts/GP
- 0.50
- EV points
- 1
- Hits
- 1
- Blocks
- 0
- Takeaways
- 0
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 54.0 %
- Off. zone starts
- 44.4 %
- Faceoffs
- 0.0 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
27between 10 and 43 (80% range)
- Goals
- 11
- Assists
- 16
- Games
- 72
So far: 1 pts in 2 games. The team has played 0 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.36 pts per game (last season: 0.34).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Declining
- Points per game: 0.54 in 23-24, 0.34 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 54 → 42
Outlook, age included
↓ DecliningAge 25: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
Out· Knee· expected back November 28
OV · OverallConfidence 74 %
65
Depth
- SK
- Skating
- 60
- Confidence 67 %
- ST
- Strength
- 60
- Confidence 78 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 75
- Confidence 75 %
- DU
- Durability
- 72
- Confidence 67 %
- CK
- Checking
- 69
- Confidence 78 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 68
- Confidence 54 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 84
- Confidence 78 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 63
- Confidence 56 %
- PA
- Passing
- 67
- Confidence 74 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 75
- Confidence 74 %
- DF
- Defense
- 77
- Confidence 70 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 56
- Confidence 25 %
- EX
- Experience
- 53
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating60
- Top speed (35 %)35 · 57
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)2.834 · 52
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.8 · 86
- Speed consistency (15 %)33.9 · 55
ST — Strength60
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)3.921 · 74
- Body mass (50 %)-1.319 · 57
EN — Endurance75
- Ice time per game (45 %)14.8 · 74
- Total ice time (20 %)1,042 · 74
- Shift length (15 %)46.4 · 79
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)14 · 76
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.011 · 70
DU — Durability72
- Share of games played (100 %)0.799 · 72
CK — Checking69
- Hits /60 (70 %)2.834 · 69
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)2.389 · 70
- Season volume (10 %)3.829 · 70
FG — Fighting68
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.73 · 68
DI — Discipline84
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.049 · 85
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.618 · 76
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.906 · 81
FO — Faceoffs63
- Faceoff % (85 %)47 · 64
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)17.7 · 56
PA — Passing67
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.467 · 60
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.522 · 77
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.022 · 72
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)3.986 · 68
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.342 · 67
SC — Scoring75
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.805 · 75
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.792 · 75
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.251 · 74
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.207 · 72
- xG per shot (10 %)0.083 · 78
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)12.3 · 76
DF — Defense77
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.062 · 80
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.129 · 80
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.573 · 77
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.025 · 73
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.601 · 69
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)59.2 · 68
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)1.931 · 61
PS — Penalty shot56
- Shootouts (60 %)29.8 · 53
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience53
- Career regular-season games (65 %)74
- Career playoff games (25 %)0
- NHL seasons (10 %)47
OV — Overall65
- SC · Scoring (20 %)75
- PA · Passing (20 %)67
- DF · Defense (20 %)77
- SK · Skating (12 %)60
- FO · Faceoffs (10 %)63
- EN · Endurance (8 %)75
- DI · Discipline (5 %)84
- ST · Strength (3 %)60
- CK · Checking (2 %)69
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 60 | 75 | 77 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 70 | 78 | 77 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 77 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
0.6
wins above replacement
223 of 615
PAL Rating
42/ 100
Performance · Around average
261 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
31/ 100
Poor return
3.78 M$ · expected PAL 59
ProfileBalancedNeither end dominates
- Offense
- 32
- Defense
- 54
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 20
- Creation
- 58
- Shooting
- 37
- Possession
- 39
- Defense
- 64
- Discipline
- 82
- Power play
- 44
- Penalty kill
- 40
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | CGY | 0.6 | 42 | 31 | 3.78 M$ |
| 2024-25 | CGY | 0.5 | 54 | 71 | 0.86 M$ |
| 2023-24 | CGY | 1.5 | 56 | 71 | 0.86 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
65/ 100
Average
better than 65% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
62/ 100
Average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
56/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Why 65, higher than both scores? Overall IQ isn't an average, it's a rank: 147 of 424 forwards. Few players are good at both ends at once; being so puts Connor Zary ahead of almost everyone else.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 4
- Shot selection
- 63
- Penalties drawn
- 79
- Puck management
- 66
Defense
- Takeaways
- 30
- Discipline
- 71
- Safe zone exits
- 50
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | CGY | 65 | 62 | 56 |
| 2024-25 | CGY | 53 | 24 | 76 |
| 2023-24 | CGY | 64 | 79 | 38 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
0.6
wins above replacement
-0.6 to 1.6 — 90% interval
223 of 615 forwards
+3.1 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +0.1
- EV defense
- +1.1
- Power play
- -0.2
- Penalty kill
- 0.0
- Shooting
- -1.9
- Penalties
- +1.2
- Average → replacement
- +2.7
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | CGY | 74 | 0.6 | -0.6 to 1.6 | 223/615 |
| 2024-25 | CGY | 54 | 0.5 | -0.6 to 2.1 | 227/596 |
| 2023-24 | CGY | 63 | 1.5 | 0.4 to 2.6 | 104/608 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 118.3 km/h12th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 31.9 km/h1st percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 00th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 42.3 %51st percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 8.1 km7th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.04 km34th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 42.1 %69th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 19.2 %93rd percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 38.5 %63rd percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 29th percentile | 024th percentile | 0.0 %3rd percentile |
| High danger | 115th percentile | 034th percentile | 0.0 %10th percentile |
| Mid range | 010th percentile | 054th percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
| Long range | 031st percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
SEAConnor Zary: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Connor Zary have in 2026-27?
Connor Zary has 0 goals and 1 point (1 assist) in 2 games in 2026-27.
How old is Connor Zary?
Connor Zary is 25 years old: he was born on September 25, 2001.
How tall is Connor Zary, and how much does he weigh?
Connor Zary is 6'0" (183 cm) and weighs 179 lb (81 kg).
Where is Connor Zary from?
Canada: Connor Zary was born in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
What team does Connor Zary play for?
Connor Zary plays for the Calgary Flames in the NHL, at C, wearing number 47.
Is Connor Zary injured?
Yes: Connor Zary is injured and out (knee). He is expected back around November 28.
How good is Connor Zary?
Connor Zary produced 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 223rd of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 42 out of 100: around average for his position.
How much does Connor Zary make?
Connor Zary earns $3.8M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 31 out of 100 (poor return): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Connor Zary's contract end?
Connor Zary's contract runs through the 2027-28 season; he will then be a restricted free agent.
Is Connor Zary overpaid?
Yes, his output falls short of what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 31 out of 100 (poor return), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Connor Zary a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 223rd of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Connor Zary getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 54 in 2024-25 to 42 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
What are Connor Zary's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Connor Zary has 193 games, 39 goals, 48 assists and 87 points. His best season: 2023-24, with 34 points in 63 games.
Where was Connor Zary drafted?
Connor Zary was drafted 24th overall (round 1) by Calgary Flames in 2020.
How does Connor Zary perform in the playoffs?
Connor Zary has not played in the NHL playoffs yet.
Which player is most similar to Connor Zary?
Zachary Bolduc: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Zachary Bolduc's page →Is Connor Zary a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 27 points in 2026-27, or 0.38 points per game.
What is Connor Zary's nationality?
Connor Zary is Canadian.
Where did Connor Zary play before turning pro?
Three seasons with the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League (WHL).
How many points is Connor Zary projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 27 points in 72 games in 2026-27 (10 to 43 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Calgary Flames teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)