Rafael
Navarro
F
#9
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis CITY SCHeight : 6' 0" · Weight : 183 lbs · Age : 26
MLS record
| Year | Team | FC | FA | RC | YC | OG | APP | SUB | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current season | St. Louis CITY SC | 7 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
- 2026 guaranteed comp.
- 1.45 M$
- Base salary
- 1.39 M$
- Rank on the club
- #2 of 25
Guaranteed compensation: base salary plus signing bonuses and other guaranteed money, annualized; performance bonuses are not included. Contract length is not made public.
Advanced stats, 2026 Strikers
MLS stats →2026 season, in progress (2,631 minutes played). The percentile ranks the player among regular strikers (1,000+ minutes over a full season): 90th means better than 90% of them.
Goals
15
88th percentile
Assists
2
58th percentile
Expected goals (xG)
18.4
99th percentile
Expected assists (xA)
2.1
54th percentile
Goals − xG
−3.4
7th percentile
Key passes
24
80th percentile
Pass completion
76.8 %
50th percentile
Passes over expected
−3.7 /100
31th percentile
g+ per 90
+0.04
68th percentile
Minutes
2,631
Regular season. xG: expected goals from chance quality; xA: expected assists. Passes over expected: completed passes above expectation, per 100 passes, given their difficulty. g+: goals added, above the position average. Data: American Soccer Analysis.
2027 projection
MLS trends →Projected WAR
0.4
Confidence: high · based on the backtest and minutes played
Projected minutes
3,100
WAR 2026
0.3
Minutes played
2,631
The pace of the last three seasons (WAR per minute, 60/25/15), pulled toward the group average as if 1,000 more minutes, over the minutes expected from the last two seasons, adjusted for age. Method chosen by backtest (2023 to 2026): mean error of 0.24 wins.
Trend
→ Stable (-6)
- 2023-0.1 WAR · -0.32 per 3,000 min
- 20240.4 WAR · 0.39 per 3,000 min
- 20250.7 WAR · 0.71 per 3,000 min
- 20260.3 WAR · 0.34 per 3,000 min
The trend compares this season's WAR per 3,000 minutes with last season's (at least 500 minutes each), weighted by playing time.
Outlook, age included
+4 · 26 y.o. · prime years
It is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, transfers or role changes.
Player ratings, 2026
All ratings →Ratings from 0 to 100, computed over four seasons from data, never by hand, against regulars in the same position group. 75 = established regular, 87 = 90th percentile, 95+ = elite. EX counts his MLS seasons since 2021, from our data: his career elsewhere is not included.
OV · Overall
81
Very good
- FIN
- Finishing
- 72
- SHO
- Shot threat
- 83
- MOV
- Movement
- 62
- VIS
- Vision
- 72
- DRI
- Dribbling
- 85
- PAS
- Passing
- 76
- DUR
- Durability
- 93
- EX
- Experience
- 63
Why these ratings?Hide details
- FIN — Finishing : Goals over expected goals, shot quality
- SHO — Shot threat : Expected goals and shots per 90
- MOV — Movement : Goals added by receiving: getting open to receive
- VIS — Vision : Expected assists and key passes per 90
- DRI — Dribbling : Goals added by carrying the ball
- PAS — Passing : Goals added by passing, passes completed over expected
- DUR — Durability : Share of his club's minutes played, over several seasons
- EX — Experience : MLS seasons since 2021 (our data)
WAR and PAL Rating, 2026
How we rate →WAR: the goals added (g+) of each of his actions, above replacement level (the per-minute output of his group's fringe players), converted to standings points (0.64 points per goal), then to wins (3 points = one win). PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against regulars in the same group (50 = median).
WAR
0.3
#12 of 51 regular strikers
+1.6 goals above replacement
PAL Rating
50 / 100
#26 of 51 regular strikers
Value Rating · 2026
Sporting contract value
70 / 100
The surplus: his 2026 WAR (0.3) × the price of a win ($3.6M), minus his 2026 guaranteed compensation, against other strikers. Commercial value (tickets, sponsors, media rights) is not counted.Salary$1.4MSurplus−$358KWAR paid0.40PAL: dimensions
Where WAR comes from (in wins)
Carrying the ball and beating defenders, minus the balls lost.
The value of his shots: the quality of the chance and what he makes of it.
Fouls drawn (free kicks, penalties won) minus fouls committed.
How his passes change his team's chances of scoring and conceding.
Breaking up the opponent's play: tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocked shots.
Getting open and receiving the ball in dangerous areas.
The parts above are measured against the position average. This adjustment moves the baseline to a fringe player in his group, prorated by minutes: positive when fringe players do worse than average, negative when they do better.
| Season | Team | Min | WAR | PAL | OV | G | A | xG | xA | g+/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | COL | 2,631 | 0.3 | 50 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 18.4 | 2.1 | +0.04 |
| 2025 | COL | 2,974 | 0.7 | 64 | 79 | 12 | 3 | 16.8 | 6.2 | +0.10 |
| 2024 | COL | 3,063 | 0.4 | 55 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 17.9 | 2.1 | +0.02 |
| 2023 | COL | 950 | -0.1 | 33 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | −0.10 |
Rafael Navarro in five questions
How many goals does Rafael Navarro have in 2026?
Rafael Navarro has 15 goals and 2 assists in 2,631 minutes in 2026 (expected goals: 18.4).
How old and how tall is Rafael Navarro?
Rafael Navarro is 26 years old. He is 6'0" (183 cm) and weighs 183 lb (83 kg).
How good is Rafael Navarro?
Rafael Navarro produced 0.3 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2026, 13th of 51 players at his position in the MLS. His PAL rating is 50 out of 100: around average for his position.
How much does Rafael Navarro make?
Rafael Navarro earns $1.4M for the 2026 season. His Value Rating (on-field contract efficiency) is 70 out of 100 (good value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position; the player's commercial value is not part of it.
What number does Rafael Navarro wear, and what team does he play for?
Rafael Navarro plays for St. Louis CITY SC in the MLS, at F, and wears number 9.
