Standings — NHL
The full NHL standings by division: wins, losses, points, differential and current streak.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Playoffs | Top 3 div. | Div. win | Proj. pts | Range | Goals / xG | WAR | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina HurricanesCAR | >99% | 99% | 72% | 115 | 106–124 | 77 / 75 | 25.9 (8) | −0.1 |
 Tampa Bay LightningTBL | 97% | 89% | 48% | 110 | 100–119 | 59 / 71 | 33.0 (1) | −0.2 |
 New Jersey DevilsNJD | 96% | 92% | 23% | 108 | 99–118 | 64 / 68 | 26.4 (5) | — |
 Boston BruinsBOS | 94% | 82% | 30% | 107 | 98–117 | 75 / 50 | 19.9 (20) | — |
 Montreal CanadiensMTL | 85% | 64% | 16% | 104 | 94–113 | 58 / 51 | 25.0 (11) | −0.1 |
 Washington CapitalsWSH | 74% | 61% | 4% | 99 | 89–109 | 52 / 38 | 28.4 (4) | −0.1 |
 Ottawa SenatorsOTT | 51% | 22% | 2% | 96 | 86–105 | 54 / 47 | 20.2 (18) | −0.3 |
 Florida PanthersFLA | 49% | 21% | 2% | 95 | 86–105 | 51 / 68 | 23.1 (14) | −0.3 |
 New York RangersNYR | 44% | 27% | 1% | 94 | 84–103 | 51 / 51 | 25.9 (7) | −2.2 |
 Buffalo SabresBUF | 38% | 14% | 1% | 93 | 84–103 | 43 / 54 | 25.0 (10) | −0.1 |
 Toronto Maple LeafsTOR | 24% | 7% | <1% | 90 | 81–100 | 50 / 44 | 24.3 (12) | −0.3 |
 New York IslandersNYI | 17% | 9% | <1% | 88 | 78–98 | 47 / 37 | 18.8 (23) | −0.6 |
 Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ | 13% | 6% | <1% | 87 | 77–97 | 41 / 38 | 20.1 (19) | — |
 Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT | 13% | 6% | <1% | 86 | 77–96 | 44 / 48 | 23.2 (13) | −0.1 |
 Detroit Red WingsDET | 5% | 1% | <1% | 82 | 73–92 | 43 / 56 | 13.3 (29) | — |
 Philadelphia FlyersPHI | 1% | <1% | <1% | 77 | 67–86 | 30 / 29 | 20.2 (17) | −0.2 |
The line: eighth place in the conference, the last playoff spot on average.
Western Conference
| Team | Playoffs | Top 3 div. | Div. win | Proj. pts | Range | Goals / xG | WAR | Injuries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota WildMIN | 99% | 92% | 48% | 111 | 101–120 | 70 / 53 | 26.3 (6) | −0.2 |
 Edmonton OilersEDM | 99% | 98% | 64% | 109 | 100–119 | 67 / 47 | 25.6 (9) | −1.0 |
 Dallas StarsDAL | 97% | 82% | 26% | 107 | 98–117 | 60 / 55 | 32.6 (2) | −0.1 |
 Colorado AvalancheCOL | 97% | 80% | 22% | 106 | 97–116 | 63 / 59 | 30.3 (3) | −0.1 |
 Vegas Golden KnightsVGK | 95% | 92% | 30% | 104 | 95–114 | 62 / 68 | 19.6 (21) | −0.1 |
 Utah MammothUTA | 72% | 26% | 3% | 97 | 87–106 | 50 / 73 | 18.9 (22) | −0.1 |
 Anaheim DucksANA | 57% | 47% | 3% | 93 | 83–103 | 52 / 48 | 16.8 (25) | −0.2 |
 Nashville PredatorsNSH | 50% | 13% | 1% | 93 | 84–103 | 51 / 46 | 15.0 (28) | — |
 Seattle KrakenSEA | 46% | 34% | 2% | 91 | 82–101 | 50 / 37 | 17.6 (24) | −0.7 |
 Los Angeles KingsLAK | 34% | 24% | 1% | 89 | 79–99 | 42 / 54 | 22.6 (15) | −0.1 |
 St. Louis BluesSTL | 23% | 4% | <1% | 88 | 78–97 | 47 / 52 | 16.0 (26) | −0.1 |
 Winnipeg JetsWPG | 21% | 3% | <1% | 87 | 77–97 | 37 / 40 | 22.2 (16) | −0.1 |
 Calgary FlamesCGY | 5% | 3% | <1% | 80 | 70–90 | 33 / 46 | 12.5 (30) | −0.4 |
 San Jose SharksSJS | 4% | 2% | <1% | 79 | 69–88 | 33 / 35 | 15.0 (27) | — |
 Chicago BlackhawksCHI | <1% | <1% | <1% | 66 | 56–75 | 19 / 29 | 11.4 (31) | — |
 Vancouver CanucksVAN | <1% | <1% | <1% | 62 | 53–72 | 26 / 23 | 10.7 (32) | −1.2 |
The line: eighth place in the conference, the last playoff spot on average.
How it works
- Performance. Half actual goals, half expected goals from our xG model (at even strength and on special teams), turned into a win percentage with the Pythagorean formula. Expected goals strip out shooting and goaltending luck, which doesn’t repeat.
- Talent. PickALeague WAR for each team’s current lineup: its top 12 forwards, top 6 defensemen, its No. 1 goalie (60%) and No. 2 (40%), over each player’s last two seasons. It carries weight early in the season; performance takes over as games pile up.
- Injuries. What the lineup loses without the player, replacement included, for the games he’s expected to miss.
- Simulation. The rest of the real schedule played 10,000 times, game by game, with home ice and overtime. Qualifiers: the top three in each division and two wild cards per conference.
Tested on the three previous seasons, on November 1, December 1, January 1 and February 1: a Brier score of 0.126, versus 0.141 for a model built on goals and last season alone (0.25 = a coin flip). Lower is better.
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)