Tyson
Kozak
C · BUF · Defensive · Very poor
- PAL
- 19
- WAR
- 0.1
- Value
- 34
- PTS
- 6
2025-26№ 350 / 615
Tyson Kozak (Buffalo Sabres) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Tyson Kozak
#48CPlays: Centre · 72% of faceoffs
Buffalo Sabres
HEIGHT : 180 cm · WEIGHT : 85 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : December 28, 2002 · Souris, Canada
Drafted : 2021 · BUF · round 7, pick #193
Contract : $775,000 · 2025-26 → 2027-28 · Two-Way Contract (Extension) · RFA (Arb)
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Buffalo Sabres | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 46 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 2024-25 | Buffalo Sabres | 21 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| NHL totals | 76 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Playoff totals | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Tyson Kozak: our analysis
2025-26 season: 46 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 PTS, -1 +/-, 11:17 TOI. WAR 0.1 (350th of 615) · PAL 19, very poor.
In 2025-26, Tyson Kozak, 23, posts a PAL Rating of 19 out of 100 (very poor), and his WAR of 0.1 ranks 350th among 615 regulars, in the bottom half.
His strengths: defense (75, well above average) and penalty kill (65, above average). On the other hand, shooting (6, among the weakest in the league) and creation (6, among the weakest in the league) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+0.3); his biggest cost: finishing (-1.0).
A marked decline: his PAL was 52 in 2024-25, against 19 now; his WAR went from 0.4 to 0.1.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 34 (poor return) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Tyson Kozak's story
Growing up around Brandon, Manitoba, Tyson Kozak split his youth between hockey and baseball before hockey took precedence. He stood out with the Southwest Cougars in the Manitoba U‑18 AAA circuit, posting 26 goals and 72 points in 40 games during the 2018–19 season — numbers that drew attention from junior scouts.
Portland selected him in the sixth round of the 2017 WHL bantam draft (121st overall) and signed him the following August. After brief call‑ups in 2018–19, Kozak joined the Winterhawks full time for 2019–20. He recorded his first junior assists and scored his first two WHL goals in September, finishing his rookie year with 13 goals and 29 points across 63 games and earning Portland’s Rookie of the Year honours.
The pandemic‑shortened 2020–21 campaign limited Portland to 24 games; Kozak missed six with a hip flexor issue and finished with 3 goals and 11 points in 18 contests. He also logged one game with the Dauphin Kings in the MJHL while waiting for the WHL. Buffalo selected him in the seventh round, 193rd overall, at the 2021 NHL Entry Draft.
Signed to a three‑year entry‑level deal on 19 August 2022, Kozak began his pro career with the AHL’s Rochester Americans. He scored his first professional goal on 21 October against Syracuse’s Maxime Lagacé and closed 2022–23 with 5 goals and 10 points in 55 regular‑season games, plus 2 goals and 5 points in 14 playoff games. Coaches in Rochester highlighted his physical game and effectiveness on the penalty kill.
After further AHL seasoning and setbacks from recurring lower‑body injuries, Kozak was called up to Buffalo on 29 November 2024 as a replacement for an injured Sam Lafferty. He made his NHL debut on 5 December 2024 and tallied his first official NHL goal two days later. Kozak’s profile is that of a versatile centre who brings physicality, penalty‑kill value and the ability to play down the middle or shift to a wing when needed.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 11:12
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:00
- SH TOI/GP
- 1:37
- Pts/GP
- 0.22
- EV points
- 2
- Hits
- 14
- Blocks
- 5
- Takeaways
- 3
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 45.1 %
- Off. zone starts
- 5.7 %
- Faceoffs
- 42.4 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
Prospect value
Scout Report Center →Rank
111
among all 32 teams' prospects
Rating
88/ 100
percentile among prospects at his position
Potential
60/ 80
Top six or top four
Ceiling: 5.6 WAR from age 21 to 26
NHL probability
49 %
of playing 200 NHL games from age 21 to 26
Expected WAR, age 21-26
2.5
the most likely outcome
NHLe
—
NHL points over 82 games, from 2025-26 (—, 0 games)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
7between 2 and 15 (80% range)
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 5
- Games
- 43
So far: 2 pts in 9 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.16 pts per game (last season: 0.13).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Declining
- Points per game: 0.24 in 24-25, 0.13 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 52 → 19
Outlook, age included
↘ Slight declineAge 23: usually still improving
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 42 %
68
Depth
- SK
- Skating
- 85
- Confidence 57 %
- ST
- Strength
- 70
- Confidence 47 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 56
- Confidence 67 %
- DU
- Durability
- 57
- Confidence 57 %
- CK
- Checking
- 89
- Confidence 47 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 77
- Confidence 30 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 79
- Confidence 47 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 74
- Confidence 57 %
- PA
- Passing
- 67
- Confidence 42 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 62
- Confidence 42 %
- DF
- Defense
- 78
- Confidence 38 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 52
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating85
- Top speed (35 %)36.8 · 84
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)9.043 · 85
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.4 · 78
- Speed consistency (15 %)36 · 84
ST — Strength70
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.443 · 77
- Body mass (50 %)-0.947 · 65
EN — Endurance56
- Ice time per game (45 %)12.7 · 62
- Total ice time (20 %)504 · 58
- Shift length (15 %)40.6 · 50
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)11.5 · 62
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)1.585 · 62
DU — Durability57
- Share of games played (100 %)0.659 · 57
CK — Checking89
- Hits /60 (70 %)8.765 · 87
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)9.171 · 90
- Season volume (10 %)4.796 · 83
FG — Fighting77
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.86 · 77
DI — Discipline79
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.027 · 78
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.39 · 87
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.547 · 64
FO — Faceoffs74
- Faceoff % (85 %)49.2 · 73
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)41.3 · 77
PA — Passing67
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.542 · 67
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.333 · 62
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)-0 · 69
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.972 · 82
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.43 · 72
SC — Scoring62
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.608 · 63
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.614 · 60
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.199 · 76
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)0.922 · 60
- xG per shot (10 %)0.082 · 73
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)9.931 · 59
DF — Defense78
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.024 · 76
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.165 · 82
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.562 · 78
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.015 · 78
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.749 · 66
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)58.6 · 72
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)4.137 · 93
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience52
- Career regular-season games (65 %)60
- Career playoff games (25 %)37
- NHL seasons (10 %)37
OV — Overall68
- SC · Scoring (20 %)62
- PA · Passing (20 %)67
- DF · Defense (20 %)78
- SK · Skating (12 %)85
- FO · Faceoffs (10 %)74
- EN · Endurance (8 %)56
- DI · Discipline (5 %)79
- ST · Strength (3 %)70
- CK · Checking (2 %)89
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 85 | 62 | 78 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 79 | 76 | 78 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
0.1
wins above replacement
350 of 615
PAL Rating
19/ 100
Performance · Very poor
375 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
34/ 100
Poor return
0.78 M$ · expected PAL 32
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 3
- Defense
- 59
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 6
- Creation
- 6
- Shooting
- 6
- Possession
- 14
- Defense
- 75
- Discipline
- 49
- Power play
- 33
- Penalty kill
- 65
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 0.1 | 19 | 34 | 0.78 M$ |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 0.4 | 52 | 70 | 0.85 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
11/ 100
Low
better than 11% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
0/ 100
Low
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
61/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 376 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 15
- Shot selection
- 27
- Penalties drawn
- 11
- Puck management
- 2
Defense
- Takeaways
- 84
- Discipline
- 94
- Safe zone exits
- 5
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 11 | 0 | 61 |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 44 | 63 | 31 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
0.1
wins above replacement
-0.4 to 0.9 — 90% interval
350 of 615 forwards
+0.3 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -0.6
- EV defense
- +0.3
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- +0.0
- Shooting
- -1.0
- Penalties
- +0.2
- Average → replacement
- +1.3
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 46 | 0.1 | -0.4 to 0.9 | 350/615 |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 21 | 0.4 | -0.1 to 1.1 | 261/596 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 102.0 km/h4th percentileleague avg. 129.5 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 37.1 km/h92nd percentileleague avg. 35.1 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 2160th percentileleague avg. 20
- Offensive zone time
- 35.3 %2nd percentileleague avg. 41.9 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 23.4 km22nd percentileleague avg. 50.0 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 3.67 km22nd percentileleague avg. 4.51 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 37.0 %4th percentileleague avg. 40.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 16.9 %5th percentileleague avg. 19.0 %
- Defensive zone time
- 47.8 %2nd percentileleague avg. 39.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 29th percentile | 141st percentile | 50.0 %100th percentile |
| High danger | 08th percentile | 034th percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
| Mid range | 011th percentile | 055th percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
| Long range | 155th percentile | 199th percentile | 100.0 %100th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
VGK
CBJ
OTT
LAK
ANA
SJS
WSH
FLA
UTATyson Kozak: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Tyson Kozak have in 2026-27?
Tyson Kozak has 1 goal and 2 points (1 assist) in 9 games in 2026-27.
How old is Tyson Kozak?
Tyson Kozak is 23 years old: he was born on December 29, 2002.
How tall is Tyson Kozak, and how much does he weigh?
Tyson Kozak is 5'11" (180 cm) and weighs 187 lb (85 kg).
Where is Tyson Kozak from?
Canada: Tyson Kozak was born in Souris, Manitoba, Canada.
What team does Tyson Kozak play for?
Tyson Kozak plays for the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL, at C, wearing number 48.
Is Tyson Kozak injured?
No: Tyson Kozak is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Tyson Kozak?
Tyson Kozak produced 0.1 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 350th of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 19 out of 100: very poor for his position.
How much does Tyson Kozak make?
Tyson Kozak earns $775K for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 34 out of 100 (poor return): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Tyson Kozak's contract end?
Tyson Kozak's contract runs through the 2027-28 season; he will then be a restricted free agent.
Is Tyson Kozak overpaid?
Yes, his output falls short of what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 34 out of 100 (poor return), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Tyson Kozak a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 350th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Tyson Kozak getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 52 in 2024-25 to 19 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Tyson Kozak played lately?
Over his last 9 games, Tyson Kozak has 2 points (1 goal, 1 assist).
What are Tyson Kozak's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Tyson Kozak has 76 games, 6 goals, 7 assists and 13 points. His best season: 2025-26, with 6 points in 46 games.
Where was Tyson Kozak drafted?
Tyson Kozak was drafted 193rd overall (round 7) by Buffalo Sabres in 2021.
How does Tyson Kozak perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Tyson Kozak has 6 games and 1 point in his career. His pace (0.17 points per game) is similar to his regular-season pace (0.17).
Which player is most similar to Tyson Kozak?
Mattias Janmark: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Mattias Janmark's page →Is Tyson Kozak a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 7 points in 2026-27, or 0.16 points per game.
What is Tyson Kozak's nationality?
Tyson Kozak is Canadian.
What awards has Tyson Kozak won?
Portland Winterhawks Rookie of the Year (2019–20 season) ; WHL U.S. Division Second All-Star Team (2021–22).
Where did Tyson Kozak play before turning pro?
Minor hockey with the Southwest Cougars of the Manitoba U-18 'AAA' Hockey League (2018–19 season); selected by the Portland Winterhawks in the 2017 WHL bantam draft (6th round, 121st overall), signed in August 2017, appeared in 2018–19 and joined full-time in 2019–20; also played one game with the Dauphin Kings (MJHL) while waiting for the 2020–21 WHL season..
How many points is Tyson Kozak projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 7 points in 43 games in 2026-27 (2 to 15 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Buffalo Sabres teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)