Samuel
Ersson
G · OTT · Very poor
- PAL
- 14
- WAR
- -1.8
- Value
- 15
- SV%
- .870
2025-26№ 91 / 98
Samuel Ersson (Ottawa Senators) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Samuel Ersson
#30G
Ottawa Senators
HEIGHT : 191 cm · WEIGHT : 88 kg · CATCHES : L
Born : October 19, 1999 · Falun, Sweden
Drafted : 2018 · PHI · round 5, pick #143
Contract : $2,200,000 · 2026-27 → 2027-28 · Standard Contract · UFA
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | W | L | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ottawa Senators | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3.14 | .889 | 0 |
| 2025-26 | Philadelphia Flyers | 33 | 14 | 11 | 3.12 | .870 | 0 |
| 2024-25 | Philadelphia Flyers | 47 | 22 | 17 | 3.14 | .883 | 2 |
| 2023-24 | Philadelphia Flyers | 51 | 23 | 19 | 2.82 | .890 | 4 |
| 2022-23 | Philadelphia Flyers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3.07 | .899 | 1 |
| NHL totals | 152 | 68 | 53 | 3.02 | .884 | 7 | |
Samuel Ersson: our analysis
2025-26 season: 33 GP, 14 W, 11 L, .870 SV%, 3.12 GAA, 0 SO. WAR -1.8 (91st of 98) · PAL 14, very poor.
In 2025-26, Samuel Ersson, 27, posts a PAL Rating of 14 out of 100 (very poor), and his WAR of -1.8 ranks 91st among 98 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
On the other hand, efficiency (8, among the weakest in the league) and impact (11, among the weakest in the league) hold him back.
GSAx: -14.6 (goals saved above expected).
An improvement on 2024-25, when his PAL was 7; his WAR went from -3.2 to -1.8.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 15 (very poor return) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Samuel Ersson's story
Born in Falun, Samuel Ersson moved through Sweden’s junior ranks before joining Brynäs IF’s organisation in 2015 after starting out with Falu IF. He spent several seasons in Brynäs’ J18 and J20 setups and chose to pursue heavier minutes by signing with Västerås IK for 2018–19, a decision that produced strong numbers and earned him the Guldgallret as that season’s top junior in HockeyAllsvenskan.
Back at Brynäs for 2019–20, Ersson established himself in the SHL but saw the season cut short in March 2020. Philadelphia selected him 143rd overall in the fifth round of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft and the Flyers signed him to a three-year entry-level deal on 3 June 2021. He began his North American professional career with the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
The transition was interrupted by injuries in 2021–22, including a groin operation that limited him to five AHL appearances that season. In 2022–23 he moved between Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia, making his NHL debut on 23 December 2022, notching his first win on 29 December and recording his first shutout on 9 January 2023. He continued to split time between the NHL and AHL, compiling experience in regular season play and postseason duty with the Phantoms.
Ersson signed a two-year extension with Philadelphia on 5 August 2023 and oscillated between starter and backup roles over the following campaigns, dealing with injuries and inconsistencies that affected his workload and statistics. In June 2026 he was traded to Toronto and then flipped to Ottawa ten days later; as a restricted free agent he was not given a qualifying offer but signed a two-year, $4.4 million contract with the Senators on 1 July.
On the international stage Ersson represented Sweden at the 2019 World Junior Championship, was on the senior roster at the 2021 World Championship without seeing ice time, and won a bronze medal at the 2024 World Championship as part of a tandem with Filip Gustavsson. His career reads as a sequence of steady development, punctuated by notable junior honours and a baptism by fire adapting between European leagues and the NHL.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- Starts
- 6
- Shots against
- 199
- Saves
- 177
- %ARR / SV%
- 88.9 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
Trend
Trend
Stable
- Goals saved above expected per 100 shots: -0.51 in 23-24, -1.19 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 7 → 14
Outlook, age included
→ StableAge 26: prime years
The trend is a hint, not a verdict. It reads recent seasons and PAL Rating (age only shapes the outlook); it knows nothing about future injuries, trades, or the defense in front of the goalie.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
-1.8
wins above replacement
91 of 98
PAL Rating
14/ 100
Performance · Very poor
62 of 74 at the position
Value Rating
15/ 100
Very poor return
1.45 M$ · expected PAL 49
See full detailsHide details
- Efficiency
- 8
- Impact
- 11
- High danger
- 38
- Consistency
- 34
- Workload
- 39
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | PHI | -1.8 | 14 | 15 | 1.45 M$ |
| 2024-25 | PHI | -3.2 | 7 | 7 | 1.45 M$ |
| 2023-24 | PHI | -0.3 | 25 | 27 | 0.86 M$ |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 1.0 | 67 | 67 | 0.86 M$ |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-1.8
wins above replacement
-4.7 to 1.2 — 90% interval
91 of 98 goalies
-9.3 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- Goals saved above expected
- -14.6
- Average → replacement
- +5.2
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | PHI | 33 | -1.8 | -4.7 to 1.2 | 91/98 |
| 2024-25 | PHI | 46 | -3.2 | -6.2 to -0.9 | 98/99 |
| 2023-24 | PHI | 51 | -0.3 | -6.1 to 4.1 | 72/98 |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 12 | 1.0 | -0.4 to 2.9 | 36/107 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →NHL EDGE tracks every shot with a chip in the puck: where it came from, how dangerous it was, and what the goalie did with it. The percentile places the goalie within the league.
- Save %
- .88957th percentileleague avg. .890
- High-danger save %
- .76625th percentileleague avg. .804
- Games above .900
- 50.0 %72nd percentileleague avg. 45.8 %
See full detailsHide details
- Goal support per game
- 3.1460th percentileleague avg. 3.07
- Goal differential per 60
- 0.0052nd percentileleague avg. 0.07
Save % by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
UTA
BUF
SJS
LAK
FLA
STL
DET
BOSSamuel Ersson: frequently asked questions
What is Samuel Ersson's record in 2026-27?
Samuel Ersson has 3 wins in 9 games in 2026-27, with a .889 save percentage and a 3.14 goals-against average.
How old is Samuel Ersson?
Samuel Ersson is 27 years old: he was born on October 20, 1999.
How tall is Samuel Ersson, and how much does he weigh?
Samuel Ersson is 6'3" (191 cm) and weighs 194 lb (88 kg).
Where is Samuel Ersson from?
Sweden: Samuel Ersson was born in Falun, Sweden.
What team does Samuel Ersson play for?
Samuel Ersson plays for the Ottawa Senators in the NHL, at G, wearing number 30.
Is Samuel Ersson injured?
No: Samuel Ersson is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Samuel Ersson?
Samuel Ersson produced -1.8 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 91st of 98 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 14 out of 100: very poor for his position.
How much does Samuel Ersson make?
Samuel Ersson earns $1.5M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 15 out of 100 (very poor return): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Samuel Ersson's contract end?
Samuel Ersson's contract runs through the 2027-28 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent.
Is Samuel Ersson overpaid?
Yes, his output falls short of what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 15 out of 100 (very poor return), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Samuel Ersson a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 91st of 98 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Samuel Ersson getting better?
Yes: his PAL rating went from 7 in 2024-25 to 14 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
What are Samuel Ersson's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Samuel Ersson has 152 games, 68 wins and 7 shutouts. His best season: 2023-24, with 23 wins.
Where was Samuel Ersson drafted?
Samuel Ersson was drafted 143rd overall (round 5) by Philadelphia Flyers in 2018.
How does Samuel Ersson perform in the playoffs?
Samuel Ersson has not played in the NHL playoffs yet.
Which player is most similar to Samuel Ersson?
Arturs Silovs: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Arturs Silovs's page →What is Samuel Ersson's nationality?
Samuel Ersson is Swedish. Internationally: Sweden — 2019 World Junior Championship (3–1–0, 2.23 GAA, .922 save percentage); 2021 World Championship (on roster, did not play); 2024 World Championship (bronze medal, tandem with Filip Gustavsson); 4 Nations Face-Off (replaced Jacob Markström, started a 2–1 win vs. United States, 32 saves).
What awards has Samuel Ersson won?
Guldgallret (best junior player in HockeyAllsvenskan) — 2018–19 season.
Where did Samuel Ersson play before turning pro?
Youth: Falu IF; joined the Brynäs IF organization in 2015; played for Västerås IK in HockeyAllsvenskan in 2018–19; returned to Brynäs IF for the 2019–20 season..
See also: his Ottawa Senators teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)