Noah
Cates
L · PHI · Defensive · Elite
- PAL
- 97
- WAR
- 1.2
- Value
- 97
- PTS
- 47
2025-26№ 129 / 615
Noah Cates (Philadelphia Flyers) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Noah Cates
#27LPlays: Centre and left wing · 77% of faceoffs
Philadelphia Flyers
HEIGHT : 188 cm · WEIGHT : 88 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : February 4, 1999 · Stillwater, United States
Drafted : 2017 · PHI · round 5, pick #137
Contract : $4,000,000 · 2025-26 → 2028-29 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFA · Signing bonus $1,250,000
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Philadelphia Flyers | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2025-26 | Philadelphia Flyers | 82 | 18 | 29 | 47 | 44 |
| 2024-25 | Philadelphia Flyers | 78 | 16 | 21 | 37 | 14 |
| 2023-24 | Philadelphia Flyers | 59 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0 |
| 2022-23 | Philadelphia Flyers | 82 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 12 |
| 2021-22 | Philadelphia Flyers | 16 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| NHL totals | 335 | 60 | 94 | 154 | 80 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Philadelphia Flyers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Playoff totals | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
Noah Cates: our analysis
2025-26 season: 82 GP, 18 G, 29 A, 47 PTS, +26 +/-, 16:15 TOI. WAR 1.2 (129th of 615) · PAL 97, elite.
In 2025-26, Noah Cates, 27, posts a PAL Rating of 97 out of 100 (elite), and his WAR of 1.2 ranks 129th among 615 regulars, in the top quarter.
His strengths: defense (99, among the best in the league), penalty kill (99, among the best in the league) and creation (80, well above average). On the other hand, discipline (33, below average) holds him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+5.1); his biggest cost: finishing (-3.1).
A clear step forward: his PAL went from 89 in 2024-25 to 97; his WAR, though, went from 1.9 to 1.2.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 97 (exceptional value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Noah Cates's story
Growing up in Stillwater, Minnesota, Noah Cates sharpened his game playing with his older brother Jackson, a partnership that followed him from youth teams through high school. A standout moment in high school came when an overtime goal helped send his team to the state tournament; rather than head straight to college in 2017, he spent time in the USHL with the Omaha Lancers to develop physically.
Cates joined the University of Minnesota Duluth for 2018–19 and became a steady contributor over four collegiate seasons. He earned All‑NCHC recognition each year and celebrated an NCAA title as a freshman. Named captain for 2020–21 and again in 2021–22, he finished his Bulldogs career with 39 goals and 99 points across 139 games before turning pro.
Drafted by Philadelphia in the fifth round, 137th overall, in 2017, Cates signed an entry-level deal with the Flyers at the close of his college tenure in March 2022. He made his NHL debut days later against the Minnesota Wild and scored his first NHL goal on April 5 versus Columbus. Early on he carved out a role as a two-way forward; in 2022–23 he played all 82 games, recorded 13 goals and 38 points, and led Flyers forwards with 1,456 minutes of ice time.
Injuries and role changes shaped the seasons that followed. A fractured foot on November 25, 2023 halted a streak of 119 consecutive games and cost him several weeks, and he worked through a period of adjusting his offensive game. The 2024–25 campaign saw him take on penalty-killing duties and form an effective line with Bobby Brink and Tyson Foerster, finishing with 16 goals and 37 points and earning the Gene Hart Memorial Award. Philadelphia extended him on a four‑year contract signed June 3, 2025.
Internationally, Cates represented the United States at the 2019 World Junior Championship, helping the team to a silver medal with one goal and three points in seven games, and he was one of the college players selected for the U.S. roster at the 2022 Winter Olympics, serving as an alternate captain and scoring once in four games. His game is defined by defensive commitment, the ability to play both wing and center, and dependable play in key team roles.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 13:06
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:10
- SH TOI/GP
- 1:50
- Pts/GP
- 0.26
- EV points
- 5
- Hits
- 15
- Blocks
- 14
- Takeaways
- 6
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 45.3 %
- Off. zone starts
- 37.6 %
- Faceoffs
- 47.1 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
48between 26 and 69 (80% range)
- Goals
- 18
- Assists
- 30
- Games
- 101
So far: 5 pts in 19 games. The team has played 0 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.52 pts per game (last season: 0.57).
Three straight seasons of growth. Since 2018, of 97 players in that spot, 23 kept improving the next season; on average, their pace fell back to 90% of their best season.
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Slightly up
- Points per game: 0.31 in 23-24, 0.57 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 89 → 97
Outlook, age included
↗ Slightly upAge 27: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 82 %
82
Very good
- SK
- Skating
- 69
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 72
- Confidence 85 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 77
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 79
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 76
- Confidence 85 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 79
- Confidence 65 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 76
- Confidence 85 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 62
- Confidence 90 %
- PA
- Passing
- 74
- Confidence 82 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 71
- Confidence 82 %
- DF
- Defense
- 98
- Confidence 79 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 64
- Confidence 8 %
- EX
- Experience
- 69
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating69
- Top speed (35 %)35.9 · 73
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)2.801 · 58
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.1 · 75
- Speed consistency (15 %)35.1 · 73
ST — Strength72
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)3.786 · 72
- Body mass (50 %)-0.321 · 73
EN — Endurance77
- Ice time per game (45 %)15.4 · 77
- Total ice time (20 %)1,299 · 82
- Shift length (15 %)41.9 · 55
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)13.3 · 73
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)3.023 · 82
DU — Durability79
- Share of games played (100 %)0.845 · 79
CK — Checking76
- Hits /60 (70 %)4.566 · 76
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)3.841 · 76
- Season volume (10 %)4.635 · 80
FG — Fighting79
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.91 · 79
DI — Discipline76
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.024 · 76
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.475 · 83
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.613 · 64
FO — Faceoffs62
- Faceoff % (85 %)45.6 · 60
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)45.1 · 81
PA — Passing74
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.748 · 78
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.445 · 73
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.053 · 72
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)3.524 · 60
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.472 · 75
SC — Scoring71
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.8 · 67
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.846 · 73
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.421 · 63
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.603 · 81
- xG per shot (10 %)0.088 · 91
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)11.5 · 60
DF — Defense98
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.245 · 98
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.245 · 89
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.292 · 93
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)0.286 · 95
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-0.309 · 98
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)52.9 · 97
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)2.847 · 81
PS — Penalty shot64
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)25.4 · 57
EX — Experience69
- Career regular-season games (65 %)81
- Career playoff games (25 %)41
- NHL seasons (10 %)61
OV — Overall82
- SC · Scoring (28 %)71
- PA · Passing (22 %)74
- DF · Defense (18 %)98
- SK · Skating (12 %)69
- EN · Endurance (8 %)77
- DI · Discipline (5 %)76
- ST · Strength (4 %)72
- CK · Checking (3 %)76
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 69 | 71 | 98 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 64 | 68 | 96 |
| 2023-24 | 73 | 61 | 57 | 98 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 57 | 61 | 98 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
1.2
wins above replacement
129 of 615
PAL Rating
97/ 100
Performance · Elite
15 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
97/ 100
Exceptional value
4.00 M$ · expected PAL 59
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 70
- Defense
- 100
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 64
- Creation
- 80
- Shooting
- 78
- Possession
- 66
- Defense
- 99
- Discipline
- 33
- Power play
- 48
- Penalty kill
- 99
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | PHI | 1.2 | 97 | 97 | 4.00 M$ |
| 2024-25 | PHI | 1.9 | 89 | 91 | 2.63 M$ |
| 2023-24 | PHI | 1.1 | 95 | 97 | 2.63 M$ |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 1.3 | 92 | 96 | 0.93 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
98/ 100
Elite
better than 98% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
95/ 100
Elite
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
92/ 100
Elite
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Why 98, higher than both scores? Overall IQ isn't an average, it's a rank: 7 of 424 forwards. Few players are good at both ends at once; being so puts Noah Cates ahead of almost everyone else.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 72
- Shot selection
- 98
- Penalties drawn
- 25
- Puck management
- 66
Defense
- Takeaways
- 91
- Discipline
- 49
- Safe zone exits
- 82
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | PHI | 98 | 95 | 92 |
| 2024-25 | PHI | 93 | 90 | 81 |
| 2023-24 | PHI | 95 | 44 | 99 |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 96 | 86 | 94 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
1.2
wins above replacement
0.2 to 2.0 — 90% interval
129 of 615 forwards
+6.6 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +0.1
- EV defense
- +5.1
- Power play
- -0.1
- Penalty kill
- +1.2
- Shooting
- -3.1
- Penalties
- 0.0
- Average → replacement
- +3.4
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | PHI | 82 | 1.2 | 0.2 to 2.0 | 129/615 |
| 2024-25 | PHI | 75 | 1.9 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 80/596 |
| 2023-24 | PHI | 59 | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.6 | 130/608 |
| 2022-23 | PHI | 82 | 1.3 | 0.2 to 2.3 | 107/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 131.9 km/h50th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 33.8 km/h15th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 822nd percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 37.3 %8th percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 61.6 km56th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.05 km35th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 38.4 %11th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 19.3 %95th percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 43.4 %14th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1539th percentile | 254th percentile | 13.3 %51st percentile |
| High danger | 433rd percentile | 157th percentile | 25.0 %68th percentile |
| Mid range | 656th percentile | 177th percentile | 16.7 %66th percentile |
| Long range | 031st percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
CGY
NYR
MIN
UTA
WSH
CBJ
ANA
BUF
COL
OTT
DET
SEA
CAR
BOS
TBL
NJD
PITNoah Cates: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Noah Cates have in 2026-27?
Noah Cates has 2 goals and 5 points (3 assists) in 19 games in 2026-27.
How old is Noah Cates?
Noah Cates is 27 years old: he was born on February 5, 1999.
How tall is Noah Cates, and how much does he weigh?
Noah Cates is 6'2" (188 cm) and weighs 194 lb (88 kg).
Where is Noah Cates from?
United States: Noah Cates was born in Stillwater, Minnesota, United States.
What team does Noah Cates play for?
Noah Cates plays for the Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL, at L, wearing number 27.
Is Noah Cates injured?
No: Noah Cates is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Noah Cates?
Noah Cates produced 1.2 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 129th of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 97 out of 100: elite for his position.
How much does Noah Cates make?
Noah Cates earns $4.0M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 97 out of 100 (exceptional value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Noah Cates's contract end?
Noah Cates's contract runs through the 2028-29 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent.
Is Noah Cates overpaid?
No, he gives more than he costs. His Value rating is 97 out of 100 (exceptional value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Noah Cates a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 129th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Noah Cates getting better?
Yes: his PAL rating went from 89 in 2024-25 to 97 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Noah Cates played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Noah Cates has 5 points (2 goals, 3 assists).
What are Noah Cates's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Noah Cates has 335 games, 60 goals, 94 assists and 154 points. His best season: 2025-26, with 47 points in 82 games.
Where was Noah Cates drafted?
Noah Cates was drafted 137th overall (round 5) by Philadelphia Flyers in 2017.
Is Noah Cates better at home or on the road?
At home: in 2026-27, he averages 0.50 points per game at home (5 in 10 games) and 0.00 on the road (0 in 9 games).
How does Noah Cates perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Noah Cates has 8 games and 4 points in his career. His pace (0.50 points per game) is similar to his regular-season pace (0.46).
Which player is most similar to Noah Cates?
Shane Pinto: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Shane Pinto's page →Is Noah Cates a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 48 points in 2026-27, or 0.48 points per game.
Does Noah Cates have siblings?
Yes: his brother Jackson Cates (made his NHL debut with the Flyers in 2021; has most recently appeared with the Rockford IceHogs (AHL), the Chicago Blackhawks' affiliate).
Is Noah Cates related to anyone famous?
Yes: Jay (Cates) (uncle, played three seasons of college ice hockey with the Minnesota Golden Gophers); Jeff Cates (father, won the 1988 NCAA Division III men's ice hockey tournament with the Wisconsin–River Falls Falcons).
What is Noah Cates's nationality?
Noah Cates is American. Internationally: United States — silver medal at the 2019 World Junior Championship; alternate captain at the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.
What awards has Noah Cates won?
NCHC Offensive Player of the Week (performance of March 1, 2019) ; NCHC All-Rookie Team (2019) ; All-NCHC First Team (2019–20 season) ; AHCA All-American Second Team (2019–20 season) ; All-NCHC Second Team (2020–21 season) ; All-NCHC Honorable Mention (2021–22 season) ; Gene Hart Memorial Award — player who demonstrated the most "heart" at the Flyers' end-of-season banquet (2024–25 season).
How many championships has Noah Cates won?
1: NCAA Division I championship with the Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs (2019).
Where did Noah Cates play before turning pro?
Omaha Lancers (USHL), then Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs (joined for 2018–19 season through end of college career in 2021–22).
How many points is Noah Cates projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 48 points in 101 games in 2026-27 (26 to 69 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Philadelphia Flyers teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)