Nikolas
Matinpalo
D · OTT · Defensive · Below average
- PAL
- 37
- WAR
- -0.1
- Value
- 49
- PTS
- 5
2025-26№ 249 / 325
Nikolas Matinpalo (Ottawa Senators) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Nikolas Matinpalo
#33D
Ottawa Senators
HEIGHT : 191 cm · WEIGHT : 97 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : October 4, 1998 · Espoo, Finland
Contract : $875,000 · 2025-26 → 2026-27 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFA
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 2025-26 | Ottawa Senators | 50 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 2024-25 | Ottawa Senators | 41 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 2023-24 | Ottawa Senators | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NHL totals | 111 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 48 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ottawa Senators | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2024-25 | Ottawa Senators | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Playoff totals | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
Nikolas Matinpalo: our analysis
2025-26 season: 50 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 5 PTS, -1 +/-, 15:38 TOI. WAR -0.1 (249th of 325) · PAL 37, below average.
In 2025-26, Nikolas Matinpalo, 28, posts a PAL Rating of 37 out of 100 (below average), and his WAR of -0.1 ranks 249th among 325 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
His strengths: defense (67, above average), power play (67, above average) and discipline (66, above average). On the other hand, offense (7, among the weakest in the league) and shooting (9, among the weakest in the league) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+0.5); his biggest cost: finishing (-1.8).
A clear step forward: his PAL went from 11 in 2024-25 to 37; his WAR went from -0.2 to -0.1.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 49 (fair value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Nikolas Matinpalo's story
Matinpalo broke into pro hockey through Ilves Tampere, making his Liiga debut in 2018–19 while also appearing briefly for KooVee Tampere in Mestis. Those early seasons saw him split time between Finland's top league and the second tier, collecting regular-season and playoff experience that established him as a steady defensive option. He spent multiple campaigns in Tampere before a midseason move reshaped his path.
On 24 January 2021 he was traded to Ässät in exchange for Niklas Peltomäki. The change of scenery led to increased responsibility; after finishing that season with Ässät he signed a one-year extension on 20 April 2022 and produced career-high totals in 2022–23 with new personal bests in games played, goals and points. Ässät advanced past TPS in the qualifying round that year but were stopped in the quarterfinals by Ilves, and Matinpalo added playoff minutes to his resume.
Unsigned in the NHL Draft, Matinpalo accepted an entry-level contract with the Ottawa Senators on 26 May 2023 and began the 2023–24 campaign assigned to the Belleville Senators in the AHL. Ottawa recalled him on 28 October 2023 after injuries on the NHL blue line and he made his NHL debut that night in a 5–2 win over Pittsburgh. He returned to Belleville after four NHL games and spent the remainder of the season there, contributing offensively and taking part in the Calder Cup playoffs.
Matinpalo continued to move between Ottawa and Belleville in subsequent seasons, signing a one-year two-way extension on 20 June 2024 and later a two-year one-way deal on 5 May 2025. He recorded his first NHL point on 13 March 2025 and his first NHL goal on 6 April 2025, and featured in playoff series with the Senators. Internationally, he represented Finland at the 2023 IIHF World Championship, received a February 2025 call-up during the Four Nations Face-Off, and was named to Finland's roster for the 2026 Winter Olympics, where the team won bronze. On the ice he is best described as a defenceman who values dependable positioning and occasional offensive support.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 15:12
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:00
- SH TOI/GP
- 2:23
- Pts/GP
- 0.19
- EV points
- 3
- Hits
- 13
- Blocks
- 12
- Takeaways
- 1
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 52.2 %
- Off. zone starts
- 25.5 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
8between 3 and 14 (80% range)
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 7
- Games
- 58
So far: 3 pts in 16 games. The team has played 18 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.13 pts per game (last season: 0.10).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Slightly up
- Points per game: 0.10 in 24-25, 0.10 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 11 → 37
Outlook, age included
↗ Slightly upAge 27: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 56 %
70
Established NHL
- SK
- Skating
- 81
- Confidence 67 %
- ST
- Strength
- 93
- Confidence 62 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 53
- Confidence 67 %
- DU
- Durability
- 53
- Confidence 67 %
- CK
- Checking
- 77
- Confidence 62 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 75
- Confidence 37 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 73
- Confidence 62 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- —
- PA
- Passing
- 65
- Confidence 56 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 59
- Confidence 56 %
- DF
- Defense
- 78
- Confidence 52 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 58
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating81
- Top speed (35 %)36.1 · 84
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)3.063 · 86
- Distance /60 (20 %)13.9 · 68
- Speed consistency (15 %)34.6 · 76
ST — Strength93
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)7.605 · 94
- Body mass (50 %)0.742 · 80
EN — Endurance53
- Ice time per game (45 %)16.2 · 58
- Total ice time (20 %)772 · 63
- Shift length (15 %)41 · 45
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)14.1 · 56
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)1.635 · 62
DU — Durability53
- Share of games played (100 %)0.637 · 53
CK — Checking77
- Hits /60 (70 %)3.583 · 77
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)3.083 · 77
- Season volume (10 %)3.912 · 74
FG — Fighting75
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.825 · 75
DI — Discipline73
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)-0.047 · 73
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.701 · 70
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.43 · 77
PA — Passing65
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.284 · 65
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.265 · 50
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)-0.016 · 72
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.343 · 82
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.17 · 66
SC — Scoring59
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.111 · 51
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.181 · 72
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.09 · 59
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)0.046 · 58
- xG per shot (10 %)0.034 · 73
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)9.201 · 72
DF — Defense78
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.026 · 76
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.064 · 78
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.416 · 87
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.03 · 70
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-2.113 · 71
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)57.7 · 77
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)4.228 · 73
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience58
- Career regular-season games (65 %)64
- Career playoff games (25 %)45
- NHL seasons (10 %)47
OV — Overall70
- DF · Defense (30 %)78
- PA · Passing (22 %)65
- SK · Skating (12 %)81
- SC · Scoring (12 %)59
- EN · Endurance (9 %)53
- ST · Strength (6 %)93
- DI · Discipline (5 %)73
- CK · Checking (4 %)77
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 81 | 59 | 78 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 83 | 73 | 71 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
-0.1
wins above replacement
249 of 325
PAL Rating
37/ 100
Performance · Below average
159 of 250 at the position
Value Rating
49/ 100
Fair value
0.88 M$ · expected PAL 38
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 11
- Defense
- 65
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 7
- Creation
- 14
- Shooting
- 9
- Possession
- 45
- Defense
- 67
- Discipline
- 66
- Power play
- 67
- Penalty kill
- 58
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | OTT | -0.1 | 37 | 49 | 0.88 M$ |
| 2024-25 | OTT | -0.2 | 11 | 25 | 0.78 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
50/ 100
Average
better than 50% of defensemen, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
55/ 100
Average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
40/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 112 of 225 defensemen.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 41
- Shot selection
- 43
- Penalties drawn
- 65
- Puck management
- 71
Defense
- Takeaways
- 59
- Discipline
- 48
- Safe zone exits
- 25
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | OTT | 50 | 55 | 40 |
| 2024-25 | OTT | 27 | 43 | 23 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-0.1
wins above replacement
-0.4 to 0.2 — 90% interval
249 of 325 defensemen
-0.4 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -0.4
- EV defense
- +0.5
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- -0.1
- Shooting
- -1.8
- Penalties
- -0.2
- Average → replacement
- +1.6
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | OTT | 50 | -0.1 | -0.4 to 0.2 | 249/325 |
| 2024-25 | OTT | 39 | -0.2 | -0.7 to 0.3 | 258/314 |
| 2023-24 | OTT | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.0 | 172/316 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 144.1 km/h62nd percentileleague avg. 139.7 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.9 km/h90th percentileleague avg. 34.0 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 1887th percentileleague avg. 8
- Offensive zone time
- 40.5 %41st percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 55.6 km43rd percentileleague avg. 56.1 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.84 km43rd percentileleague avg. 4.98 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 42.7 %62nd percentileleague avg. 42.8 %
- Neutral zone time
- 17.9 %37th percentileleague avg. 16.9 %
- Defensive zone time
- 41.7 %35th percentileleague avg. 40.8 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1350th percentile | 049th percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
| High danger | 175th percentile | 084th percentile | 0.0 %60th percentile |
| Mid range | 251st percentile | 073rd percentile | 0.0 %50th percentile |
| Long range | 435th percentile | 077th percentile | 0.0 %67th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
UTA
BUF
ANA
SJS
LAK
VGK
NYR
FLA
PHI
NJD
NSH
DET
BOS
TORNikolas Matinpalo: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Nikolas Matinpalo have in 2026-27?
Nikolas Matinpalo has 0 goals and 3 points (3 assists) in 16 games in 2026-27.
How old is Nikolas Matinpalo?
Nikolas Matinpalo is 28 years old: he was born on October 5, 1998.
How tall is Nikolas Matinpalo, and how much does he weigh?
Nikolas Matinpalo is 6'3" (191 cm) and weighs 214 lb (97 kg).
Where is Nikolas Matinpalo from?
Finland: Nikolas Matinpalo was born in Espoo, Finland.
What team does Nikolas Matinpalo play for?
Nikolas Matinpalo plays for the Ottawa Senators in the NHL, at D, wearing number 33.
Is Nikolas Matinpalo injured?
No: Nikolas Matinpalo is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Nikolas Matinpalo?
Nikolas Matinpalo produced -0.1 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 249th of 325 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 37 out of 100: below average for his position.
How much does Nikolas Matinpalo make?
Nikolas Matinpalo earns $875K for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 49 out of 100 (fair value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Nikolas Matinpalo's contract end?
Nikolas Matinpalo's contract runs through the 2026-27 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent.
Is Nikolas Matinpalo overpaid?
Neither: he delivers about what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 49 out of 100 (fair value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Nikolas Matinpalo a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 249th of 325 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Nikolas Matinpalo getting better?
Yes: his PAL rating went from 11 in 2024-25 to 37 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Nikolas Matinpalo played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Nikolas Matinpalo has 3 points (0 goals, 3 assists).
What are Nikolas Matinpalo's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Nikolas Matinpalo has 111 games, 1 goal, 11 assists and 12 points. His best season: 2025-26, with 5 points in 50 games.
Is Nikolas Matinpalo better at home or on the road?
At home: in 2026-27, he averages 0.33 points per game at home (2 in 6 games) and 0.10 on the road (1 in 10 games).
How does Nikolas Matinpalo perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Nikolas Matinpalo has 10 games and 0 points in his career. His pace (0.00 points per game) is lower than his regular-season pace (0.11).
Which player is most similar to Nikolas Matinpalo?
Jacob Bernard-Docker: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Jacob Bernard-Docker's page →Is Nikolas Matinpalo a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 8 points in 2026-27, or 0.14 points per game.
What is Nikolas Matinpalo's nationality?
Nikolas Matinpalo is Finnish. Internationally: Finland — 2023 IIHF World Championship: seventh place; Four Nations Face-Off 2025: called up replacing Rasmus Ristolainen; 2026 Winter Olympics: bronze medal.
How many points is Nikolas Matinpalo projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 8 points in 58 games in 2026-27 (3 to 14 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Ottawa Senators teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)