Nick
Paul
L · TOR · Defensive · Below average
- PAL
- 36
- WAR
- -0.3
- Value
- 28
- PTS
- 15
2025-26№ 543 / 615
Nick Paul (Toronto Maple Leafs) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Nick Paul
#20LPlays: Centre and left wing · 66% of faceoffs
Toronto Maple Leafs
HEIGHT : 191 cm · WEIGHT : 102 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : March 19, 1995 · Mississauga, Canada
Drafted : 2013 · DAL · round 4, pick #101
Contract : $3,150,000 · 2022-23 → 2028-29 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFA · Signing bonus $3,400,000NTC / M-NTC
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 51 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 32 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 76 | 22 | 19 | 41 | 30 |
| 2023-24 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 24 | 22 | 46 | 27 |
| 2022-23 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 80 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 33 |
| 2021-22 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 21 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 17 |
| 2021-22 | Ottawa Senators | 59 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 22 |
| 2020-21 | Ottawa Senators | 56 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 19 |
| 2019-20 | Ottawa Senators | 56 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 24 |
| 2018-19 | Ottawa Senators | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2017-18 | Ottawa Senators | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2016-17 | Ottawa Senators | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015-16 | Ottawa Senators | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| NHL totals | 555 | 106 | 114 | 220 | 224 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2024-25 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2023-24 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2022-23 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2021-22 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 23 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| Playoff totals | 45 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 20 | |
Nick Paul: our analysis
2025-26 season: 51 GP, 7 G, 8 A, 15 PTS, -15 +/-, 13:41 TOI. WAR -0.3 (543rd of 615) · PAL 36, below average.
In 2025-26, Nick Paul, 31, posts a PAL Rating of 36 out of 100 (below average), and his WAR of -0.3 ranks 543rd among 615 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
His strengths: penalty kill (76, well above average), creation (72, above average) and defense (66, above average). On the other hand, power play (12, among the weakest in the league) and possession (17, well below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+0.9); his biggest cost: finishing (-2.7).
A marked decline: his PAL was 58 in 2024-25, against 36 now; his WAR went from 1.4 to -0.3.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 28 (poor return) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Nick Paul's story
A backyard rink in Mississauga was where Nick Paul and his brothers skated as kids, a formative setting that helped him develop despite being overlooked early in his junior draft year. He played minor midget with the Mississauga Chargers and maintained a childhood friendship with Max Domi, attending Maple Leafs games as a youth. Paul’s junior path took a turn when the Brampton/North Bay Battalion brought him in as an overage pick, giving him the ice time he needed to grow into a scoring forward.
Dallas selected him 101st overall in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, but Paul returned to the Battalion and broke out offensively—posting 37 goals and 29 assists in 58 games in one season and helping the club reach the OHL Eastern Conference Finals. Ottawa acquired his NHL rights the next summer and Paul signed a three-year entry-level contract with the Senators in December 2014, finishing his final junior season on a strong note before turning pro.
He began his professional career in the AHL with Binghamton (and later Belleville), earning an NHL call-up and making his debut on February 16, 2016. His first NHL goal came eight days later on February 24, 2016, against Edmonton. Over subsequent seasons in Ottawa, Paul carved out a role that combined physical play and penalty killing responsibility, was named an alternate captain, and became a regular on the roster. With trade talks concluding on March 20, 2022, he was dealt to the Tampa Bay Lightning; he scored his first Lightning goal on March 22 and played a notable part in Tampa Bay’s run to the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, contributing 5 goals and 9 points in 23 playoff games and scoring twice in a Game 7 against Toronto.
Paul elected to remain in Tampa Bay by signing a seven-year, $22.05 million extension on July 1, 2022. He continued to be deployed in varied roles—filling holes up and down the lineup and stepping into penalty kill duties—bringing a mix of size and physicality alongside opportunistic offense. Internationally, he wore Canada’s colours at the 2015 World Junior Championship, scoring three goals en route to gold, later joined the senior team for the 2021 IIHF World Championship where he netted the overtime winner in the final against Finland, and returned to represent Canada at the 2024 World Championship.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 16:16
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:39
- SH TOI/GP
- 2:05
- Pts/GP
- 0.32
- EV points
- 6
- Hits
- 36
- Blocks
- 16
- Takeaways
- 3
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 44.6 %
- Off. zone starts
- 33.0 %
- Faceoffs
- 45.1 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
22between 9 and 35 (80% range)
- Goals
- 8
- Assists
- 14
- Games
- 71
So far: 6 pts in 19 games. The team has played 19 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.30 pts per game (last season: 0.29).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Declining
- Points per game: 0.56 in 23-24, 0.29 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 58 → 36
Outlook, age included
↓ DecliningAge 31: the age when production usually declines
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 82 %
74
Established NHL
- SK
- Skating
- 77
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 86
- Confidence 85 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 72
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 75
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 77
- Confidence 85 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 83
- Confidence 64 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 74
- Confidence 85 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 81
- Confidence 89 %
- PA
- Passing
- 57
- Confidence 82 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 75
- Confidence 82 %
- DF
- Defense
- 86
- Confidence 79 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 67
- Confidence 8 %
- EX
- Experience
- 84
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating77
- Top speed (35 %)36.3 · 78
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)5.162 · 73
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.1 · 75
- Speed consistency (15 %)35.8 · 81
ST — Strength86
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.172 · 77
- Body mass (50 %)1.357 · 87
EN — Endurance72
- Ice time per game (45 %)15 · 76
- Total ice time (20 %)675 · 64
- Shift length (15 %)45.9 · 75
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)13.3 · 73
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.179 · 75
DU — Durability75
- Share of games played (100 %)0.813 · 75
CK — Checking77
- Hits /60 (70 %)5.037 · 78
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)3.6 · 75
- Season volume (10 %)4.331 · 77
FG — Fighting83
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)1.065 · 83
DI — Discipline74
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.015 · 73
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.514 · 81
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.603 · 63
FO — Faceoffs81
- Faceoff % (85 %)52.5 · 81
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)42.6 · 78
PA — Passing57
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.516 · 62
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.423 · 71
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)-0.073 · 55
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)3.636 · 62
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.317 · 64
SC — Scoring75
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.92 · 75
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.838 · 72
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.148 · 75
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.516 · 79
- xG per shot (10 %)0.082 · 80
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)13 · 69
DF — Defense86
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.081 · 84
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.059 · 78
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.465 · 83
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)0.144 · 89
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.012 · 86
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)56.5 · 82
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)2.339 · 76
PS — Penalty shot67
- Shootouts (60 %)32 · 65
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience84
- Career regular-season games (65 %)89
- Career playoff games (25 %)72
- NHL seasons (10 %)84
OV — Overall74
- SC · Scoring (28 %)75
- PA · Passing (22 %)57
- DF · Defense (18 %)86
- SK · Skating (12 %)77
- EN · Endurance (8 %)72
- DI · Discipline (5 %)74
- ST · Strength (4 %)86
- CK · Checking (3 %)77
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 86 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 76 | 79 | 86 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 76 | 77 | 86 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 78 | 67 | 90 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
-0.3
wins above replacement
543 of 615
PAL Rating
36/ 100
Performance · Below average
291 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
28/ 100
Poor return
3.15 M$ · expected PAL 56
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 28
- Defense
- 56
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 17
- Creation
- 72
- Shooting
- 40
- Possession
- 17
- Defense
- 66
- Discipline
- 45
- Power play
- 12
- Penalty kill
- 76
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | -0.3 | 36 | 28 | 3.15 M$ |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 1.4 | 58 | 49 | 3.15 M$ |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 1.6 | 75 | 65 | 3.15 M$ |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 0.7 | 65 | 53 | 3.15 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
36/ 100
Below average
better than 36% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
31/ 100
Below average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
50/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 270 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 9
- Shot selection
- 68
- Penalties drawn
- 31
- Puck management
- 46
Defense
- Takeaways
- 48
- Discipline
- 54
- Safe zone exits
- 41
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 36 | 31 | 50 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 63 | 25 | 86 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 75 | 73 | 60 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 36 | 30 | 52 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-0.3
wins above replacement
-1.2 to 0.5 — 90% interval
543 of 615 forwards
-1.6 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -1.7
- EV defense
- +0.9
- Power play
- -0.2
- Penalty kill
- +0.1
- Shooting
- -2.7
- Penalties
- +0.2
- Average → replacement
- +1.8
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | TBL | 51 | -0.3 | -1.2 to 0.5 | 543/615 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 73 | 1.4 | 0.3 to 2.9 | 111/596 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 82 | 1.6 | -0.5 to 2.8 | 94/608 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 80 | 0.7 | -0.0 to 2.1 | 170/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 133.7 km/h55th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.5 km/h60th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 2466th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 38.3 %13th percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 76.1 km81st percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.77 km59th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 39.5 %23rd percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 18.1 %49th percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 43.6 %13th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1743rd percentile | 254th percentile | 11.8 %44th percentile |
| High danger | 857th percentile | 157th percentile | 12.5 %29th percentile |
| Mid range | 334th percentile | 054th percentile | 0.0 %32nd percentile |
| Long range | 153rd percentile | 199th percentile | 100.0 %100th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
NJD
MTL
UTA
VAN
SEA
CGY
EDM
NYR
CBJ
SJS
NYI
BUF
COL
VGK
NSH
OTTNick Paul: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Nick Paul have in 2026-27?
Nick Paul has 2 goals and 6 points (4 assists) in 19 games in 2026-27.
How old is Nick Paul?
Nick Paul is 31 years old: he was born on March 20, 1995.
How tall is Nick Paul, and how much does he weigh?
Nick Paul is 6'3" (191 cm) and weighs 225 lb (102 kg).
Where is Nick Paul from?
Canada: Nick Paul was born in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.
What team does Nick Paul play for?
Nick Paul plays for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL, at L, wearing number 20.
Is Nick Paul injured?
No: Nick Paul is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Nick Paul?
Nick Paul produced -0.3 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 543rd of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 36 out of 100: below average for his position.
How much does Nick Paul make?
Nick Paul earns $3.2M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 28 out of 100 (poor return): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Nick Paul's contract end?
Nick Paul's contract runs through the 2028-29 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent. It includes a NTC / M-NTC clause.
Is Nick Paul overpaid?
Yes, his output falls short of what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 28 out of 100 (poor return), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Nick Paul a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 543rd of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Nick Paul getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 58 in 2024-25 to 36 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Nick Paul played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Nick Paul has 2 points (1 goal, 1 assist).
What are Nick Paul's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Nick Paul has 555 games, 106 goals, 114 assists and 220 points. His best season: 2023-24, with 46 points in 82 games.
Where was Nick Paul drafted?
Nick Paul was drafted 101st overall (round 4) by Dallas Stars in 2013.
Is Nick Paul better at home or on the road?
On the road: in 2026-27, he averages 0.18 points per game at home (2 in 11 games) and 0.50 on the road (4 in 8 games).
How does Nick Paul perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Nick Paul has 45 games and 14 points in his career. His pace (0.31 points per game) is lower than his regular-season pace (0.40).
Which player is most similar to Nick Paul?
Warren Foegele: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Warren Foegele's page →Is Nick Paul a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 22 points in 2026-27, or 0.31 points per game.
What is Nick Paul's nationality?
Nick Paul is Canadian. Internationally: Team Canada: 2015 World Junior Championship (gold medal, 3 goals in 7 games), 2021 IIHF World Championship (gold medal, overtime goal in the final), selected for the 2024 IIHF World Championship.
What awards has Nick Paul won?
Ottawa Senators' nominee for the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy (2020–21 season).
How many championships has Nick Paul won?
2: Gold medal at the 2015 World Junior Championship with Team Canada; Gold medal at the 2021 IIHF World Championship with Team Canada.
Where did Nick Paul play before turning pro?
Mississauga Chargers (GTHL), 2011–12 season; Brampton Battalion / North Bay Battalion (OHL), through the 2014–15 season (overage signee).
How many points is Nick Paul projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 22 points in 71 games in 2026-27 (9 to 35 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Toronto Maple Leafs teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)