Michael
McCarron
C · MIN · Defensive · Below average
- PAL
- 36
- WAR
- -0.3
- Value
- 51
- PTS
- 5
2025-26№ 532 / 615
Michael McCarron (Minnesota Wild) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Michael McCarron
#47CPlays: Centre · 80% of faceoffs
Minnesota Wild
HEIGHT : 198 cm · WEIGHT : 105 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : March 6, 1995 · Grosse Pointe, United States
Drafted : 2013 · MTL · round 1, pick #25
Contract : $3,333,333 · 2026-27 → 2031-32 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFANMC
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Minnesota Wild | 18 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 2025-26 | Minnesota Wild | 20 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 2025-26 | Nashville Predators | 59 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 73 |
| 2024-25 | Nashville Predators | 74 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 102 |
| 2023-24 | Nashville Predators | 70 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 100 |
| 2022-23 | Nashville Predators | 32 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 24 |
| 2021-22 | Nashville Predators | 51 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 70 |
| 2020-21 | Nashville Predators | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 2017-18 | Montréal Canadiens | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 32 |
| 2016-17 | Montréal Canadiens | 31 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 41 |
| 2015-16 | Montréal Canadiens | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 |
| NHL totals | 399 | 39 | 48 | 87 | 529 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Minnesota Wild | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 2023-24 | Nashville Predators | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021-22 | Nashville Predators | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2016-17 | Montréal Canadiens | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Playoff totals | 20 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | |
Michael McCarron: our analysis
2025-26 season: 20 GP, 3 G, 2 A, 5 PTS, -1 +/-, 12:40 TOI. WAR -0.3 (532nd of 615) · PAL 36, below average.
In 2025-26, Michael McCarron, 31, posts a PAL Rating of 36 out of 100 (below average), and his WAR of -0.3 ranks 532nd among 615 regulars, in the bottom quarter.
His strengths: defense (87, among the best in the league). On the other hand, shooting (4, among the weakest in the league) and offense (4, among the weakest in the league) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: EV defense (+0.9); his biggest cost: finishing (-4.6).
A clear step forward: his PAL went from 27 in 2024-25 to 36; his WAR, though, went from -0.1 to -0.3.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 51 (fair value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Michael McCarron's story
A native of Grosse Pointe, Michigan, born March 7, 1995, McCarron showed up on the map early, skating in the 2008 Quebec International Pee‑Wee Tournament with Detroit Belle Tire. He spent 2011–2013 in the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, and collected a silver medal at the 2013 IIHF World U18 Championship — seasons that helped shape his physical, north‑south approach.
McCarron originally committed to Western Michigan University but chose to continue his development in the Ontario Hockey League with the London Knights. That move paid off: he was taken 25th overall by the Montreal Canadiens in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft and signed a three‑year entry‑level contract with Montreal on July 11, 2013. Early in his OHL tenure he shifted from right wing to centre, a positional change that affected his role on the ice.
A mid‑season trade on January 1, 2015 sent him from London to the Oshawa Generals; with Oshawa he won the J. Ross Robertson Cup and the Memorial Cup in 2015. Turning professional in 2015–16, he had a strong start in the AHL, earned a selection to the 2016 AHL All‑Star Classic, and received NHL recalls from Montreal. He recorded his first NHL point on February 27, 2016 with an assist on a Devante Smith‑Pelly goal, and scored his first NHL goal on March 20, 2016 against the Calgary Flames.
An operation on his left shoulder ended his 2018–19 season. After that year he re‑signed with Montréal on a one‑year, two‑way deal on July 27, 2019. On January 7, 2020 he was traded to the Nashville Predators for Laurent Dauphin. McCarron later signed new deals with Nashville in 2023 and 2024. On March 3, 2026, Nashville traded him to the Minnesota Wild for a 2028 second‑round draft pick. During the Wild’s 2026 first‑round playoff series against the Dallas Stars he scored his first playoff goal after receiving a pass from Marcus Foligno and beating Jake Oettinger. On June 9, 2026 he agreed to a six‑year contract with Minnesota.
Internationally, McCarron played for the United States at the 2025 IIHF World Championship, posting one goal and one assist in ten games and helping Team USA capture the gold medal — the nation’s first at the tournament since 1933. While in Milwaukee with Nashville’s AHL affiliate he earned the nicknames “Big Show” and later “Big Sexy,” labels that reflect the presence he brings to the ice.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 13:35
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:01
- SH TOI/GP
- 2:29
- Pts/GP
- 0.44
- EV points
- 8
- Hits
- 53
- Blocks
- 17
- Takeaways
- 2
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 48.1 %
- Off. zone starts
- 25.3 %
- Faceoffs
- 47.1 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
23between 10 and 36 (80% range)
- Goals
- 9
- Assists
- 14
- Games
- 78
So far: 8 pts in 18 games. The team has played 19 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.25 pts per game (last season: 0.22).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Stable
- Points per game: 0.31 in 23-24, 0.22 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 27 → 36
Outlook, age included
↘ Slight declineAge 31: the age when production usually declines
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
Day-to-day· Upper Body· expected back November 10
OV · OverallConfidence 76 %
63
Depth
- SK
- Skating
- 65
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 98
- Confidence 80 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 69
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 77
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 89
- Confidence 80 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 96
- Confidence 61 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 56
- Confidence 80 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- 83
- Confidence 87 %
- PA
- Passing
- 58
- Confidence 76 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 60
- Confidence 76 %
- DF
- Defense
- 83
- Confidence 73 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 77
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating65
- Top speed (35 %)35.5 · 64
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)4.743 · 69
- Distance /60 (20 %)16.5 · 79
- Speed consistency (15 %)34 · 56
ST — Strength98
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)5.322 · 85
- Body mass (50 %)1.983 · 96
EN — Endurance69
- Ice time per game (45 %)13.7 · 69
- Total ice time (20 %)1,079 · 76
- Shift length (15 %)43.2 · 68
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)11.1 · 60
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.265 · 74
DU — Durability77
- Share of games played (100 %)0.826 · 77
CK — Checking89
- Hits /60 (70 %)9.143 · 89
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)8.012 · 89
- Season volume (10 %)5.328 · 93
FG — Fighting96
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)3.231 · 96
DI — Discipline56
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)-0.025 · 60
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)1.063 · 56
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.916 · 82
FO — Faceoffs83
- Faceoff % (85 %)52.7 · 82
- Faceoffs /60 (15 %)48.9 · 84
PA — Passing58
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.375 · 47
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.343 · 63
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.067 · 78
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.487 · 75
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.245 · 59
SC — Scoring60
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.553 · 60
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.676 · 66
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)-0.823 · 62
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.078 · 66
- xG per shot (10 %)0.079 · 60
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)11.5 · 71
DF — Defense83
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.027 · 77
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.16 · 82
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.476 · 82
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.057 · 68
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-0.79 · 88
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)56.1 · 83
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)4.201 · 94
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience77
- Career regular-season games (65 %)84
- Career playoff games (25 %)57
- NHL seasons (10 %)84
OV — Overall63
- SC · Scoring (20 %)60
- PA · Passing (20 %)58
- DF · Defense (20 %)83
- SK · Skating (12 %)65
- FO · Faceoffs (10 %)83
- EN · Endurance (8 %)69
- DI · Discipline (5 %)56
- ST · Strength (3 %)98
- CK · Checking (2 %)89
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 63 | 65 | 60 | 83 |
| 2024-25 | 57 | 66 | 50 | 80 |
| 2023-24 | 66 | 62 | 71 | 77 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 59 | 69 | 76 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
-0.3
wins above replacement
532 of 615
PAL Rating
36/ 100
Performance · Below average
290 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
51/ 100
Fair value
0.90 M$ · expected PAL 35
ProfileDefensiveValue comes mostly from defense
- Offense
- 14
- Defense
- 82
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 4
- Creation
- 35
- Shooting
- 4
- Possession
- 59
- Defense
- 87
- Discipline
- 10
- Power play
- 20
- Penalty kill
- 55
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | MIN | -0.3 | 36 | 51 | 0.90 M$ |
| 2024-25 | NSH | -0.1 | 27 | 45 | 0.90 M$ |
| 2023-24 | NSH | 0.8 | 38 | 55 | 0.78 M$ |
| 2022-23 | NSH | -0.3 | 24 | 40 | 0.75 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
12/ 100
Low
better than 12% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
54/ 100
Average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
9/ 100
Low
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 372 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 12
- Shot selection
- 12
- Penalties drawn
- 85
- Puck management
- 98
Defense
- Takeaways
- 79
- Discipline
- 4
- Safe zone exits
- 22
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | MIN | 12 | 54 | 9 |
| 2024-25 | NSH | 36 | 32 | 42 |
| 2023-24 | NSH | 17 | 63 | 11 |
| 2022-23 | NSH | 20 | 56 | 10 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
-0.3
wins above replacement
-1.5 to 0.8 — 90% interval
532 of 615 forwards
-1.4 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +0.8
- EV defense
- +0.9
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- -0.3
- Shooting
- -4.6
- Penalties
- -1.0
- Average → replacement
- +2.8
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | MIN | 79 | -0.3 | -1.5 to 0.8 | 532/615 |
| 2024-25 | NSH | 70 | -0.1 | -0.6 to 0.3 | 446/596 |
| 2023-24 | NSH | 70 | 0.8 | -0.2 to 1.6 | 180/608 |
| 2022-23 | NSH | 32 | -0.3 | -0.8 to 0.0 | 524/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 142.0 km/h85th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.1 km/h47th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 2158th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 37.3 %8th percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 62.3 km57th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 4.23 km39th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 40.1 %31st percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 17.1 %10th percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 45.6 %5th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 3276th percentile | 366th percentile | 9.4 %27th percentile |
| High danger | 1068th percentile | 157th percentile | 10.0 %22nd percentile |
| Mid range | 442nd percentile | 177th percentile | 25.0 %88th percentile |
| Long range | 383rd percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %87th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
SJS
PHI
WSH
NYI
UTA
VAN
SEA
CGY
EDM
CBJ
STL
WPG
VGK
FLA
TBL
BUF
BOS
NSHMichael McCarron: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Michael McCarron have in 2026-27?
Michael McCarron has 3 goals and 8 points (5 assists) in 18 games in 2026-27.
How old is Michael McCarron?
Michael McCarron is 31 years old: he was born on March 7, 1995.
How tall is Michael McCarron, and how much does he weigh?
Michael McCarron is 6'6" (198 cm) and weighs 231 lb (105 kg).
Where is Michael McCarron from?
United States: Michael McCarron was born in Grosse Pointe, Michigan, United States.
What team does Michael McCarron play for?
Michael McCarron plays for the Minnesota Wild in the NHL, at C, wearing number 47.
Is Michael McCarron injured?
Yes: Michael McCarron is injured, day-to-day (upper body). He is expected back around November 10.
How good is Michael McCarron?
Michael McCarron produced -0.3 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 532nd of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 36 out of 100: below average for his position.
How much does Michael McCarron make?
Michael McCarron earns $900K for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 51 out of 100 (fair value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Michael McCarron's contract end?
Michael McCarron's contract runs through the 2031-32 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent. It includes a NMC clause.
Is Michael McCarron overpaid?
Neither: he delivers about what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 51 out of 100 (fair value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Michael McCarron a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 532nd of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Michael McCarron getting better?
Yes: his PAL rating went from 27 in 2024-25 to 36 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Michael McCarron played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Michael McCarron has 4 points (3 goals, 1 assist).
What are Michael McCarron's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Michael McCarron has 399 games, 39 goals, 48 assists and 87 points. His best season: 2023-24, with 22 points in 70 games.
Where was Michael McCarron drafted?
Michael McCarron was drafted 25th overall (round 1) by Montreal Canadiens in 2013.
Is Michael McCarron better at home or on the road?
On the road: in 2026-27, he averages 0.33 points per game at home (2 in 6 games) and 0.50 on the road (6 in 12 games).
How does Michael McCarron perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Michael McCarron has 20 games and 4 points in his career. His pace (0.20 points per game) is similar to his regular-season pace (0.22).
Which player is most similar to Michael McCarron?
Brandon Duhaime: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Brandon Duhaime's page →Is Michael McCarron a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 23 points in 2026-27, or 0.29 points per game.
What is Michael McCarron's nationality?
Michael McCarron is American. Internationally: United States — silver medal at the 2013 IIHF World U18 Championships; gold medal at the 2025 IIHF World Championship.
What awards has Michael McCarron won?
Named to the AHL All-Star Classic, 2016.
How many championships has Michael McCarron won?
4: J. Ross Robertson Cup with the Oshawa Generals, 2015; Memorial Cup with the Oshawa Generals, 2015; Gold medal at the IIHF World Championship with the United States, 2025; Silver medal at the IIHF World U18 Championships with the United States, 2013.
What is Michael McCarron's nickname?
He is nicknamed « Big Show », ensuite « Big Sexy ».
Where did Michael McCarron play before turning pro?
USA Hockey National Team Development Program (USNTDP), 2011–2013; London Knights (OHL) until January 1, 2015.
How many points is Michael McCarron projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 23 points in 78 games in 2026-27 (10 to 36 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Minnesota Wild teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)