Mattias
Samuelsson
D · BUF · Offensive · Above average
- PAL
- 63
- WAR
- 1.2
- Value
- 50
- PTS
- 41
2025-26№ 57 / 325
Mattias Samuelsson (Buffalo Sabres) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Mattias Samuelsson
#23D
Buffalo Sabres
HEIGHT : 193 cm · WEIGHT : 106 kg · SHOOTS : L
Born : March 13, 2000 · Philadelphia, United States
Drafted : 2018 · BUF · round 2, pick #32
Contract : $4,285,714 · 2023-24 → 2029-30 · Standard Contract (Extension) · UFA · Signing bonus $2,000,000
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Buffalo Sabres | 17 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 25 |
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 78 | 13 | 28 | 41 | 28 |
| 2024-25 | Buffalo Sabres | 62 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 22 |
| 2023-24 | Buffalo Sabres | 41 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 2022-23 | Buffalo Sabres | 55 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| 2021-22 | Buffalo Sabres | 42 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| 2020-21 | Buffalo Sabres | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| NHL totals | 307 | 22 | 72 | 94 | 141 | |
Playoffs
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Buffalo Sabres | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Playoff totals | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | |
Mattias Samuelsson: our analysis
2025-26 season: 78 GP, 13 G, 28 A, 41 PTS, +41 +/-, 22:50 TOI. WAR 1.2 (57th of 325) · PAL 63, above average.
In 2025-26, Mattias Samuelsson, 26, posts a PAL Rating of 63 out of 100 (above average), and his WAR of 1.2 ranks 57th among 325 regulars, in the top quarter.
His strengths: offense (82, well above average), shooting (82, well above average) and discipline (70, above average). On the other hand, penalty kill (10, among the weakest in the league) and power play (35, below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: finishing (+6.0); his biggest cost: penalty kill (-1.3).
A clear step forward: his PAL went from 31 in 2024-25 to 63; his WAR went from 0.4 to 1.2.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 50 (fair value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Mattias Samuelsson's story
Raised in Voorhees Township, New Jersey, Samuelsson developed within the U.S. junior system before moving into college hockey and the NHL pipeline. He spent three seasons with the USA Hockey National Team Development Program and captained the U.S. squad that won gold at the 2016 Winter Youth Olympics in Lillehammer, experiences that established him early as a composed defensive prospect.
Samuelsson initially committed to the University of Michigan but reversed that decision and enrolled at Western Michigan University. Over two seasons with the Broncos he recorded seven goals and 19 assists, and he served as an alternate captain in his sophomore year despite being the youngest player on the roster. His college play helped position him as an NHL-calibre blueliner.
The Buffalo Sabres selected him in the second round, 32nd overall, of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft. He signed a three-year entry-level contract with Buffalo on 25 March 2020 and made his NHL debut on 18 April 2021 in a 4–2 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Samuelsson scored his first NHL goal on 30 November during a 5–4 shootout win over the Detroit Red Wings. On 12 October 2022 the Sabres extended him to a seven-year contract worth 30 million $.
Samuelsson’s 2023–24 campaign was cut short by an injury suffered on 23 January against the Anaheim Ducks; on 4 February 2024 he was ruled out for the remainder of the season. Up to that point he had one goal and six assists for seven points in 41 games. Those numbers mirror his deployment as a defensively oriented presence rather than a primary offensive contributor.
On the ice he is noted for skating ability and a steady, positionally-sound defensive game. Coaches have relied on him to neutralize opposing forwards and to make disciplined outlet plays, traits consistent with his background in the U.S. development program and college competition.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 23:44
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:04
- SH TOI/GP
- 3:02
- Pts/GP
- 0.59
- EV points
- 9
- Hits
- 13
- Blocks
- 35
- Takeaways
- 7
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 50.7 %
- Off. zone starts
- 31.5 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
39between 24 and 52 (80% range)
- Goals
- 11
- Assists
- 29
- Games
- 74
So far: 10 pts in 17 games. The team has played 17 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.51 pts per game (last season: 0.53).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Trending up
- Points per game: 0.17 in 23-24, 0.53 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 31 → 63
Outlook, age included
↑ Trending upAge 26: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 83 %
83
Very good
- SK
- Skating
- 83
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 89
- Confidence 86 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 81
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 70
- Confidence 77 %
- CK
- Checking
- 84
- Confidence 86 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 67
- Confidence 59 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 79
- Confidence 86 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- —
- PA
- Passing
- 76
- Confidence 83 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 83
- Confidence 83 %
- DF
- Defense
- 72
- Confidence 80 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 71
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating83
- Top speed (35 %)36.1 · 83
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)2.641 · 83
- Distance /60 (20 %)14.2 · 76
- Speed consistency (15 %)35.2 · 82
ST — Strength89
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)5.383 · 77
- Body mass (50 %)1.908 · 90
EN — Endurance81
- Ice time per game (45 %)20.5 · 80
- Total ice time (20 %)1,700 · 85
- Shift length (15 %)47.8 · 77
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)18.4 · 78
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.756 · 80
DU — Durability70
- Share of games played (100 %)0.781 · 70
CK — Checking84
- Hits /60 (70 %)4.821 · 83
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)4.339 · 84
- Season volume (10 %)4.89 · 87
FG — Fighting67
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.709 · 67
DI — Discipline79
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)-0.027 · 79
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.53 · 80
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.369 · 73
PA — Passing76
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.368 · 76
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.449 · 78
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)-0.038 · 70
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.372 · 83
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.17 · 66
SC — Scoring83
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.329 · 84
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.188 · 73
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.968 · 93
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)0.126 · 78
- xG per shot (10 %)0.035 · 77
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)8.196 · 63
DF — Defense72
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)-0.017 · 71
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.095 · 80
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.664 · 72
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)-0.259 · 56
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.954 · 76
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)57.8 · 77
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)5.212 · 82
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience71
- Career regular-season games (65 %)80
- Career playoff games (25 %)50
- NHL seasons (10 %)66
OV — Overall83
- DF · Defense (30 %)72
- PA · Passing (22 %)76
- SK · Skating (12 %)83
- SC · Scoring (12 %)83
- EN · Endurance (9 %)81
- ST · Strength (6 %)89
- DI · Discipline (5 %)79
- CK · Checking (4 %)84
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 83 | 83 | 83 | 72 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 80 | 68 | 72 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 80 | 61 | 72 |
| 2022-23 | 68 | 77 | 65 | 68 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
1.2
wins above replacement
57 of 325
PAL Rating
63/ 100
Performance · Above average
84 of 250 at the position
Value Rating
50/ 100
Fair value
4.29 M$ · expected PAL 63
ProfileOffensiveValue comes mostly from offense
- Offense
- 76
- Defense
- 39
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 82
- Creation
- 53
- Shooting
- 82
- Possession
- 51
- Defense
- 46
- Discipline
- 70
- Power play
- 35
- Penalty kill
- 10
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 1.2 | 63 | 50 | 4.29 M$ |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 0.4 | 31 | 17 | 4.29 M$ |
| 2023-24 | BUF | -0.3 | 21 | 11 | 4.29 M$ |
| 2022-23 | BUF | -0.6 | 14 | 18 | 0.93 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
69/ 100
Average
better than 69% of defensemen, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
71/ 100
Very good
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
58/ 100
Average
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 69 of 225 defensemen.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 54
- Shot selection
- 75
- Penalties drawn
- 39
- Puck management
- 81
Defense
- Takeaways
- 20
- Discipline
- 75
- Safe zone exits
- 56
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 69 | 71 | 58 |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 23 | 27 | 34 |
| 2023-24 | BUF | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 2022-23 | BUF | 55 | 33 | 77 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
1.2
wins above replacement
-0.3 to 2.6 — 90% interval
57 of 325 defensemen
+6.5 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- -1.1
- EV defense
- -0.4
- Power play
- -0.0
- Penalty kill
- -1.3
- Shooting
- +6.0
- Penalties
- -0.3
- Average → replacement
- +3.6
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BUF | 78 | 1.2 | -0.3 to 2.6 | 57/325 |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 58 | 0.4 | -0.3 to 1.2 | 108/314 |
| 2023-24 | BUF | 41 | -0.3 | -0.8 to 0.1 | 264/316 |
| 2022-23 | BUF | 55 | -0.6 | -1.5 to 0.1 | 303/334 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 151.8 km/h88th percentileleague avg. 139.7 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 35.9 km/h89th percentileleague avg. 34.0 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 1887th percentileleague avg. 8
- Offensive zone time
- 38.9 %18th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 88.3 km89th percentileleague avg. 56.1 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 6.86 km95th percentileleague avg. 4.98 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 41.1 %36th percentileleague avg. 42.8 %
- Neutral zone time
- 18.1 %53rd percentileleague avg. 16.9 %
- Defensive zone time
- 42.9 %17th percentileleague avg. 40.8 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 2277th percentile | 287th percentile | 9.1 %71st percentile |
| High danger | 051st percentile | 084th percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
| Mid range | 787th percentile | 297th percentile | 28.6 %90th percentile |
| Long range | 968th percentile | 077th percentile | 0.0 %67th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
VGK
CBJ
OTT
LAK
ANA
SJS
WSH
PHI
MTL
TOR
FLA
UTA
DAL
MIN
CHIMattias Samuelsson: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Mattias Samuelsson have in 2026-27?
Mattias Samuelsson has 2 goals and 10 points (8 assists) in 17 games in 2026-27.
How old is Mattias Samuelsson?
Mattias Samuelsson is 26 years old: he was born on March 14, 2000.
How tall is Mattias Samuelsson, and how much does he weigh?
Mattias Samuelsson is 6'4" (193 cm) and weighs 234 lb (106 kg).
Where is Mattias Samuelsson from?
United States: Mattias Samuelsson was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States.
What team does Mattias Samuelsson play for?
Mattias Samuelsson plays for the Buffalo Sabres in the NHL, at D, wearing number 23.
Is Mattias Samuelsson injured?
No: Mattias Samuelsson is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Mattias Samuelsson?
Mattias Samuelsson produced 1.2 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 57th of 325 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 63 out of 100: above average for his position.
How much does Mattias Samuelsson make?
Mattias Samuelsson earns $4.3M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 50 out of 100 (fair value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Mattias Samuelsson's contract end?
Mattias Samuelsson's contract runs through the 2029-30 season; he will then be an unrestricted free agent.
Is Mattias Samuelsson overpaid?
Neither: he delivers about what his salary should buy. His Value rating is 50 out of 100 (fair value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Mattias Samuelsson a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 57th of 325 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Mattias Samuelsson getting better?
Yes: his PAL rating went from 31 in 2024-25 to 63 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Mattias Samuelsson played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Mattias Samuelsson has 6 points (1 goal, 5 assists).
What are Mattias Samuelsson's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Mattias Samuelsson has 307 games, 22 goals, 72 assists and 94 points. His best season: 2025-26, with 41 points in 78 games.
Where was Mattias Samuelsson drafted?
Mattias Samuelsson was drafted 32nd overall (round 2) by Buffalo Sabres in 2018.
Is Mattias Samuelsson better at home or on the road?
On the road: in 2026-27, he averages 0.22 points per game at home (2 in 9 games) and 1.00 on the road (8 in 8 games).
How does Mattias Samuelsson perform in the playoffs?
In the playoffs, Mattias Samuelsson has 13 games and 7 points in his career. His pace (0.54 points per game) is higher than his regular-season pace (0.31).
Which player is most similar to Mattias Samuelsson?
Ben Hutton: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Ben Hutton's page →Is Mattias Samuelsson a good fantasy pick?
A useful depth pick: our projection has him at 39 points in 2026-27, or 0.53 points per game.
Does Mattias Samuelsson have siblings?
Yes: his brother Lukas Samuelsson (played alongside him at Western Michigan).
Is Mattias Samuelsson related to anyone famous?
Yes: Kjell Samuelsson (father, played 14 seasons as an NHL defenseman for the Penguins, Flyers, Rangers and Lightning).
What is Mattias Samuelsson's nationality?
Mattias Samuelsson is Swedish‑American. Internationally: represented the United States: gold at the 2016 Winter Youth Olympics boys' tournament (captain), silver at the 2019 World Junior Championship, captain at the 2020 World Junior Championship; played three seasons with the USA Hockey National Team Development Program.
How many championships has Mattias Samuelsson won?
2: gold at the 2016 Winter Youth Olympics boys' tournament with Team USA (captain); silver medal at the 2019 World Junior Championship with Team USA.
Where did Mattias Samuelsson play before turning pro?
played two seasons at Western Michigan University; was drafted by the Sarnia Sting in the 2016 OHL draft but chose not to play there; spent three seasons with the USA Hockey National Team Development Program.
How many points is Mattias Samuelsson projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 39 points in 74 games in 2026-27 (24 to 52 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Buffalo Sabres teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)