Kirill
Marchenko
R · TOR · Offensive · Above average
- PAL
- 67
- WAR
- 2.2
- Value
- 59
- PTS
- 67
2025-26№ 59 / 615
Kirill Marchenko (Toronto Maple Leafs) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Kirill Marchenko
#86RPlays: Right wing · 0% of faceoffs
Toronto Maple Leafs
HEIGHT : 191 cm · WEIGHT : 91 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : July 20, 2000 · Barnaul, Russia
Drafted : 2018 · CBJ · round 2, pick #49
Contract : $3,850,000 · 2024-25 → 2026-27 · Standard Contract · RFA (Arb)
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
| 2025-26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 76 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 32 |
| 2024-25 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 79 | 31 | 43 | 74 | 20 |
| 2023-24 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 78 | 23 | 19 | 42 | 14 |
| 2022-23 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 59 | 21 | 4 | 25 | 16 |
| NHL totals | 306 | 108 | 114 | 222 | 90 | |
Kirill Marchenko: our analysis
2025-26 season: 76 GP, 27 G, 40 A, 67 PTS, +7 +/-, 18:57 TOI. WAR 2.2 (59th of 615) · PAL 67, above average.
In 2025-26, Kirill Marchenko, 26, posts a PAL Rating of 67 out of 100 (above average), and his WAR of 2.2 ranks 59th among 615 regulars, in the top quarter.
His strengths: power play (85, among the best in the league), offense (81, well above average) and shooting (81, well above average). On the other hand, penalty kill (14, among the weakest in the league) and defense (28, below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: finishing (+3.5); his biggest cost: EV defense (-0.3).
A marked decline: his PAL was 85 in 2024-25, against 67 now; his WAR went from 3.3 to 2.2.
Contract-wise, his Value score of 59 (good value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Kirill Marchenko's story
Growing up in Barnaul, Kirill Marchenko moved through the Russian junior system, developing first with Altaï Barnaoul and then in youth programs at Gazovik Tyumen and Yugra Khanty‑Mansiysk. He played junior hockey in the MHL with Mamonty Yugry in 2016–17 and stepped onto the KHL stage on 27 February 2018 for his debut with Yugra. Those formative seasons sharpened his scoring instincts and shot power.
Columbus selected him 49th overall in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, and he later joined SKA Saint Petersburg for several KHL campaigns. When he opted to pursue a North American career after the 2021–22 KHL season, Marchenko signed an entry‑level contract with the Blue Jackets and was assigned at various times to their AHL affiliates, including the Colorado Eagles and the Cleveland Monsters.
His NHL breakthrough came in December 2022: recalled on 5 December, he made his NHL debut on 6 December 2022 against Pittsburgh, then scored his first NHL goal on 11 December versus the Los Angeles Kings. Early in 2023 he produced notable highlights — a first NHL hat trick on 7 January in a win over Carolina and an overtime game‑winner on 2 April that pushed him to a franchise rookie record of 21 goals. He also recorded a natural hat trick on 19 December 2023 against Buffalo.
On 28 July 2024, Marchenko signed a three‑year contract worth $11.55 million with Columbus. He was later included in a trade to the Toronto Maple Leafs on 28 September 2026. On the ice he profiles as a forward with a nose for the net, combining a hard shot and timing in traffic that have defined his role as a goal‑oriented winger.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 17:37
- PP TOI/GP
- 3:30
- SH TOI/GP
- 0:00
- Pts/GP
- 1.00
- EV points
- 6
- Hits
- 20
- Blocks
- 5
- Takeaways
- 1
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 48.1 %
- Off. zone starts
- 40.4 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
66between 45 and 81 (80% range)
- Goals
- 27
- Assists
- 40
- Games
- 73
So far: 14 pts in 14 games. The team has played 19 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.89 pts per game (last season: 0.88).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
Trend
Stable
- Points per game: 0.54 in 23-24, 0.88 in 25-26
- PAL Rating: 85 → 67
Outlook, age included
→ StableAge 26: prime years
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
Injured reserve· Lower Body· expected back November 17
OV · OverallConfidence 83 %
85
High-end
- SK
- Skating
- 88
- Confidence 73 %
- ST
- Strength
- 78
- Confidence 86 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 86
- Confidence 80 %
- DU
- Durability
- 81
- Confidence 73 %
- CK
- Checking
- 68
- Confidence 86 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 60
- Confidence 64 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 78
- Confidence 86 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- —
- PA
- Passing
- 82
- Confidence 83 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 83
- Confidence 83 %
- DF
- Defense
- 68
- Confidence 80 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 95
- Confidence 59 %
- EX
- Experience
- 58
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating88
- Top speed (35 %)36.5 · 82
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)8.985 · 89
- Distance /60 (20 %)17.1 · 98
- Speed consistency (15 %)35.5 · 77
ST — Strength78
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.176 · 77
- Body mass (50 %)0.127 · 77
EN — Endurance86
- Ice time per game (45 %)17.1 · 85
- Total ice time (20 %)1,388 · 86
- Shift length (15 %)51.1 · 88
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)15.2 · 81
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)2.718 · 80
DU — Durability81
- Share of games played (100 %)0.858 · 81
CK — Checking68
- Hits /60 (70 %)2.983 · 67
- Lowest seasonal rate (20 %)2.671 · 69
- Season volume (10 %)4.127 · 73
FG — Fighting60
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)0.671 · 60
DI — Discipline78
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.032 · 78
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.587 · 78
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)0.773 · 75
PA — Passing82
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.85 · 81
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.639 · 84
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.105 · 78
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)5.244 · 85
- Assist consistency (10 %)0.31 · 63
SC — Scoring83
- Goals /60 (25 %)1.186 · 84
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.969 · 80
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.868 · 86
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.161 · 68
- xG per shot (10 %)0.076 · 63
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)17.9 · 86
DF — Defense68
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0.014 · 76
- Relative xG against (20 %)0.166 · 63
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.906 · 55
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)0.031 · 66
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-1.53 · 75
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)61 · 61
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)1.972 · 68
PS — Penalty shot95
- Shootouts (60 %)40.5 · 96
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience58
- Career regular-season games (65 %)80
- Career playoff games (25 %)0
- NHL seasons (10 %)55
OV — Overall85
- SC · Scoring (28 %)83
- PA · Passing (22 %)82
- DF · Defense (18 %)68
- SK · Skating (12 %)88
- EN · Endurance (8 %)86
- DI · Discipline (5 %)78
- ST · Strength (4 %)78
- CK · Checking (3 %)68
| Season | OV | SK | SC | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 85 | 88 | 83 | 68 |
| 2024-25 | 85 | 83 | 85 | 71 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 82 | 83 | 75 |
| 2022-23 | 75 | 79 | 85 | 78 |
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
2.2
wins above replacement
59 of 615
PAL Rating
67/ 100
Performance · Above average
141 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
59/ 100
Good value
3.85 M$ · expected PAL 59
ProfileOffensiveValue comes mostly from offense
- Offense
- 79
- Defense
- 30
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 81
- Creation
- 66
- Shooting
- 81
- Possession
- 58
- Defense
- 28
- Discipline
- 45
- Power play
- 85
- Penalty kill
- 14
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
| Season | Team | WAR | PAL | Value | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | CBJ | 2.2 | 67 | 59 | 3.85 M$ |
| 2024-25 | CBJ | 3.3 | 85 | 80 | 3.85 M$ |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 1.4 | 55 | 68 | 0.93 M$ |
| 2022-23 | CBJ | 1.4 | 60 | 73 | 0.93 M$ |
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
66/ 100
Average
better than 66% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
27/ 100
Below average
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
88/ 100
Very good
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Overall IQ isn't an average of the two scores: it's the player's rank with offense and defense combined, 143 of 424 forwards.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 58
- Shot selection
- 17
- Penalties drawn
- 48
- Puck management
- 61
Defense
- Takeaways
- 100
- Discipline
- 35
- Safe zone exits
- 22
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
| Season | Team | IQ | Off. | Def. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | CBJ | 66 | 27 | 88 |
| 2024-25 | CBJ | 89 | 52 | 95 |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 88 | 41 | 96 |
| 2022-23 | CBJ | 78 | 41 | 88 |
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
2.2
wins above replacement
1.0 to 4.0 — 90% interval
59 of 615 forwards
+11.5 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +3.4
- EV defense
- -0.3
- Power play
- +0.9
- Penalty kill
- 0.0
- Shooting
- +3.5
- Penalties
- +0.3
- Average → replacement
- +3.6
In goals.
| Season | Team | GP | WAR | 90% interval | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | CBJ | 76 | 2.2 | 1.0 to 4.0 | 59/615 |
| 2024-25 | CBJ | 75 | 3.3 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 23/596 |
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 78 | 1.4 | 0.1 to 3.0 | 113/608 |
| 2022-23 | CBJ | 59 | 1.4 | -0.1 to 2.7 | 101/617 |
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 140.7 km/h82nd percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 36.4 km/h81st percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 5094th percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 45.0 %81st percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 64.8 km61st percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 5.74 km87th percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 40.4 %39th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 17.9 %41st percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 37.1 %79th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 3581st percentile | 687th percentile | 17.1 %67th percentile |
| High danger | 1174th percentile | 596th percentile | 45.5 %94th percentile |
| Mid range | 2297th percentile | 177th percentile | 4.6 %32nd percentile |
| Long range | 031st percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %0th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
CGY
EDM
NYR
CBJ
SJS
NYI
BUF
UTA
COL
VGK
NSH
OTT
MTLKirill Marchenko: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Kirill Marchenko have in 2026-27?
Kirill Marchenko has 6 goals and 14 points (8 assists) in 14 games in 2026-27.
How old is Kirill Marchenko?
Kirill Marchenko is 26 years old: he was born on July 21, 2000.
How tall is Kirill Marchenko, and how much does he weigh?
Kirill Marchenko is 6'3" (191 cm) and weighs 201 lb (91 kg).
Where is Kirill Marchenko from?
Russia: Kirill Marchenko was born in Barnaul, Russia.
What team does Kirill Marchenko play for?
Kirill Marchenko plays for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL, at R, wearing number 86.
Is Kirill Marchenko injured?
Yes: Kirill Marchenko is on injured reserve (lower body). He is expected back around November 17.
How good is Kirill Marchenko?
Kirill Marchenko produced 2.2 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 59th of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 67 out of 100: above average for his position.
How much does Kirill Marchenko make?
Kirill Marchenko earns $3.9M for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 59 out of 100 (good value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Kirill Marchenko's contract end?
Kirill Marchenko's contract runs through the 2026-27 season; he will then be a restricted free agent.
Is Kirill Marchenko overpaid?
No, he gives more than he costs. His Value rating is 59 out of 100 (good value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Kirill Marchenko a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 59th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
Is Kirill Marchenko getting better?
No, he is slipping: his PAL rating went from 85 in 2024-25 to 67 in 2025-26 (out of 100, 50 = average player at his position).
How has Kirill Marchenko played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Kirill Marchenko has 11 points (5 goals, 6 assists).
What are Kirill Marchenko's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Kirill Marchenko has 306 games, 108 goals, 114 assists and 222 points. His best season: 2024-25, with 74 points in 79 games.
Where was Kirill Marchenko drafted?
Kirill Marchenko was drafted 49th overall (round 2) by Columbus Blue Jackets in 2018.
Is Kirill Marchenko better at home or on the road?
No real difference: in 2026-27, he averages 1.00 points per game at home (8 in 8 games) and 1.00 on the road (6 in 6 games).
How does Kirill Marchenko perform in the playoffs?
Kirill Marchenko has not played in the NHL playoffs yet.
Which player is most similar to Kirill Marchenko?
Filip Forsberg: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Filip Forsberg's page →Is Kirill Marchenko a good fantasy pick?
Yes, a solid pick: our projection has him at 66 points in 2026-27, or 0.90 points per game.
What is Kirill Marchenko's nationality?
Kirill Marchenko is Russian.
Where did Kirill Marchenko play before turning pro?
Made his KHL debut with HC Yugra in the 2017–18 season; played four seasons with SKA Saint Petersburg, through the 2021–22 season..
How many points is Kirill Marchenko projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 66 points in 73 games in 2026-27 (45 to 81 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his Toronto Maple Leafs teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)