Jaroslav
Chmelar
R · NYR · Balanced · Around average
- PAL
- 54
- WAR
- 0.6
- Value
- 72
- PTS
- 6
2025-26№ 218 / 615
Jaroslav Chmelar (New York Rangers) stats and profile: offensive production, ice time, advanced stats, WAR and PAL rating.
Jaroslav Chmelar
#49RPlays: Right wing · 2% of faceoffs
New York Rangers
HEIGHT : 196 cm · WEIGHT : 108 kg · SHOOTS : R
Born : July 19, 2003 · Nove Mesto nad Metuji, Czechia
Drafted : 2021 · NYR · round 5, pick #144
Contract : $867,500 · 2024-25 → 2026-27 · Entry-Level Contract · RFA · Signing bonus $92,500
NHL record
| Year | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | New York Rangers | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2025-26 | New York Rangers | 28 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| NHL totals | 38 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13 | |
Jaroslav Chmelar: our analysis
2025-26 season: 28 GP, 4 G, 2 A, 6 PTS, -2 +/-, 9:09 TOI. WAR 0.6 (218th of 615) · PAL 54, around average.
In 2025-26, Jaroslav Chmelar, 23, posts a PAL Rating of 54 out of 100 (around average), and his WAR of 0.6 ranks 218th among 615 regulars, in the top half.
His strengths: discipline (100, among the best in the league), shooting (68, above average) and defense (66, above average). On the other hand, penalty kill (30, below average) and creation (31, below average) hold him back.
Breaking down his WAR (goals above average), his biggest contribution: finishing (+1.5).
Contract-wise, his Value score of 72 (good value) weighs his output against what he costs: 50 is what that salary should buy.
Jaroslav Chmelar's story
Growing up in Nové Město nad Metují, Jaroslav Chmelař developed into a power forward whose early years in Czech and Finnish junior hockey shaped a robust, defensively minded approach to the wing.
His path to North America took a decisive step after the New York Rangers selected him 144th overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. Chmelař opted for the collegiate route and arrived at Providence College for the 2022–23 season, spending two seasons with the Friars while continuing to refine his two-way game. On 20 March 2024 he signed an entry-level contract with the Rangers, shifting from amateur to professional within the organization.
Chmelař began his pro career in Hartford with the Rangers’ AHL affiliate. He finished the 2023–24 campaign with Hartford, appearing in seven games and scoring twice, then skated the full 2024–25 season in the AHL, posting 12 goals and 17 assists across 71 contests. The 2025–26 season included multiple recalls: he was called up to New York in November 2025, made his NHL debut on 7 November against the Detroit Red Wings and returned to Hartford on 9 November after two games, later scoring his first NHL goal on 5 March 2026 versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Internationally, Chmelař represented Czechia at the World Junior Championships in both 2022 and 2023. In the 2022 tournament he appeared in three games in a primarily defensive role; a year later he produced three goals and two assists in seven games as Czechia captured the silver medal. Those showings contributed to his recognition among the Rangers’ prospects in 2023.
On the ice, Chmelař combines size with physicality and a clear defensive conscience. He tends to play hard around the net and in the corners, using his frame to challenge opponents and to create space for teammates while also taking defensive responsibilities seriously.
Facts drawn from Wikipédia, told in our own words.
Advanced stats
- TOI/GP
- 8:19
- PP TOI/GP
- 0:04
- SH TOI/GP
- 0:05
- Pts/GP
- 0.10
- EV points
- 1
- Hits
- 19
- Blocks
- 2
- Takeaways
- 2
- Corsi % (SAT)
- 43.2 %
- Off. zone starts
- 19.1 %
- Faceoffs
- 50.0 %
Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)
Prospect value
Scout Report Center →Rank
214
among all 32 teams' prospects
Rating
74/ 100
percentile among prospects at his position
Potential
50/ 80
NHL regular
Ceiling: 2.6 WAR from age 21 to 26
NHL probability
27 %
of playing 200 NHL games from age 21 to 26
Expected WAR, age 21-26
1.1
the most likely outcome
NHLe
21
NHL points over 82 games, from 2025-26 (AHL, 46 games)
2026-27 projection
Projected points
6between 1 and 18 (80% range)
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 2
- Games
- 39
So far: 1 pts in 10 games. The team has played 18 of 84 games. Projected pace: 0.16 pts per game (last season: 0.21).
The projection follows last season's pace. Tested on 2,265 player seasons (2022-23 to 2025-26): average miss of 9 points over 82 games; for players at 0.9 points per game and up, it ran 5 points high on average.
This is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes; one player in five finishes outside the range.
Player ratings, 2025-26
All ratings →Fourteen ratings from 0 to 100 drawn from data, never by hand: 75 = established NHL player, 95+ = elite.
OV · OverallConfidence 20 %
80
Very good
- SK
- Skating
- 86
- Confidence 40 %
- ST
- Strength
- 90
- Confidence 24 %
- EN
- Endurance
- 57
- Confidence 50 %
- DU
- Durability
- 58
- Confidence 40 %
- CK
- Checking
- 82
- Confidence 24 %
- FG
- Fighting
- 83
- Confidence 15 %
- DI
- Discipline
- 92
- Confidence 24 %
- FO
- Faceoffs
- —
- PA
- Passing
- 71
- Confidence 20 %
- SC
- Scoring
- 75
- Confidence 20 %
- DF
- Defense
- 78
- Confidence 17 %
- PS
- Penalty shot
- 76
- Confidence 0 %
- EX
- Experience
- 33
- Confidence 100 %
Why these ratings?Hide details
SK — Skating86
- Top speed (35 %)36.7 · 85
- Bursts > 20 mph /60 (30 %)8.071 · 85
- Distance /60 (20 %)16 · 71
- Speed consistency (15 %)36.3 · 88
ST — Strength90
- Contact absorbed /60 (50 %)4.449 · 79
- Body mass (50 %)2.202 · 94
EN — Endurance57
- Ice time per game (45 %)12.6 · 62
- Total ice time (20 %)254 · 35
- Shift length (15 %)44.8 · 70
- Lowest recent ice time per game (15 %)11.4 · 61
- Special-teams time per game (5 %)1.405 · 62
DU — Durability58
- Share of games played (100 %)0.669 · 58
CK — Checking82
- Hits /60 (70 %)7.233 · 83
- Season volume (10 %)3.989 · 71
FG — Fighting83
- Fights per 82 games (100 %)1.093 · 83
DI — Discipline92
- Net penalty value /60 (50 %)0.084 · 93
- Penalties taken /60 (30 %)0.697 · 73
- Penalties drawn /60 (20 %)1.196 · 89
PA — Passing71
- Primary assists /60 (40 %)0.535 · 64
- Secondary assists /60 (20 %)0.5 · 77
- Offensive creation (RAPM) (20 %)0.072 · 74
- Power-play points /60 (10 %)4.577 · 80
SC — Scoring75
- Goals /60 (25 %)0.977 · 77
- Individual xG /60 (20 %)0.814 · 70
- Finishing (goals − xG per shot) (20 %)0.402 · 80
- High-danger chances /60 (15 %)1.291 · 74
- xG per shot (10 %)0.08 · 77
- Shot attempts /60 (10 %)13.4 · 71
DF — Defense78
- RAPM defense /60 (35 %)0 · 74
- Relative xG against (20 %)-0.025 · 76
- On-ice xG against /60 (15 %)2.554 · 78
- Penalty kill /60 (10 %)0.036 · 79
- Takeaways − giveaways /60 (10 %)-0.959 · 87
- Shot attempts against /60 (5 %)57.7 · 78
- Blocked shots /60 (5 %)2.839 · 81
PS — Penalty shot76
- Shootouts (60 %)32.7 · 76
- Penalty shots (40 %)26.7 · 76
EX — Experience33
- Career regular-season games (65 %)47
- Career playoff games (25 %)0
- NHL seasons (10 %)24
OV — Overall80
- SC · Scoring (28 %)75
- PA · Passing (22 %)71
- DF · Defense (18 %)78
- SK · Skating (12 %)86
- EN · Endurance (8 %)57
- DI · Discipline (5 %)92
- ST · Strength (4 %)90
- CK · Checking (3 %)82
The bars show confidence (sample size), not player quality. — : not enough data, not a zero. Engine version 1.0.
WAR and PAL ratings, 2025-26
How we rate →PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against players at the same position (50 = average player), starting from the player's strength, offensive or defensive. Value Rating compares that performance with what the player costs: 50 means paid what the play is worth.
WAR
0.6
wins above replacement
218 of 615
PAL Rating
54/ 100
Performance · Around average
202 of 476 at the position
Value Rating
72/ 100
Good value
0.87 M$ · expected PAL 35
ProfileBalancedNeither end dominates
- Offense
- 38
- Defense
- 55
See full detailsHide details
- Offense
- 34
- Creation
- 31
- Shooting
- 68
- Possession
- 44
- Defense
- 66
- Discipline
- 100
- Power play
- 36
- Penalty kill
- 30
From 0 to 100; 50 is the average player at the same position, adjusted for ice time.
Hockey IQ, 2025-26
Rankings and method →The quality of the player's decisions with and against the puck at 5-on-5, against regulars at the same position (50 = average). PAL measures output; IQ measures how the player plays.
Overall IQ
97/ 100
Elite
better than 97% of forwards, offense and defense combined
Offensive IQ
96/ 100
Elite
passing, shots, puck
Defensive IQ
90/ 100
Elite
takeaways, discipline, own zone
Why 97, higher than both scores? Overall IQ isn't an average, it's a rank: 11 of 424 forwards. Few players are good at both ends at once; being so puts Jaroslav Chmelar ahead of almost everyone else.
See full detailsHide details
Offense
- Playmaking passes
- 4
- Shot selection
- 72
- Penalties drawn
- 99
- Puck management
- 83
Defense
- Takeaways
- 82
- Discipline
- 36
- Safe zone exits
- 98
Percentiles: 80 means better than 80% of regulars at the same position. Play without the puck (positioning, coverage) isn't measured: the NHL doesn't publish that data.
WAR, 2025-26
How it's calculated →Wins added to the team, compared with a replacement-level player called up from the AHL.
0.6
wins above replacement
0.2 to 1.2 — 90% interval
218 of 615 forwards
+3.2 goals above replacement
Full leaderboard →See full detailsHide details
- EV offense
- +0.0
- EV defense
- 0.0
- Power play
- 0.0
- Penalty kill
- 0.0
- Shooting
- +1.5
- Penalties
- +1.0
- Average → replacement
- +0.7
In goals.
Player tracking (NHL EDGE)
League EDGE leaderboards →Speed, shot power, distance covered, time by zone: measured by chips in the puck and shoulder pads. 90th percentile = better than 90% of players.
- Hardest shot
- 130.7 km/h47th percentileleague avg. 130.1 km/h
- Top skating speed
- 36.9 km/h90th percentileleague avg. 35.2 km/h
- Bursts over 20 mph, season
- 2261st percentileleague avg. 21
- Offensive zone time
- 41.6 %45th percentileleague avg. 43.1 %
See full detailsHide details
- Total distance, season
- 22.1 km20th percentileleague avg. 52.2 km
- Distance, single-game high
- 2.55 km3rd percentileleague avg. 4.52 km
- Offensive zone at 5v5
- 41.9 %66th percentileleague avg. 42.4 %
- Neutral zone time
- 17.9 %42nd percentileleague avg. 16.8 %
- Defensive zone time
- 40.5 %40th percentileleague avg. 40.1 %
Shooting
| Shots on goal | Goals | Shooting % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All | 620th percentile | 139th percentile | 16.7 %66th percentile |
| High danger | 327th percentile | 157th percentile | 33.3 %85th percentile |
| Mid range | 119th percentile | 054th percentile | 0.0 %32nd percentile |
| Long range | 272nd percentile | 092nd percentile | 0.0 %87th percentile |
Shots on goal by zone
2026-2027 regular season. Measured by puck and player tracking chips; the percentile ranks the player within the league.
Game log, 2026-27
SEA
PHI
STL
NJD
VAN
WSH
NYI
UTA
DET
TBLJaroslav Chmelar: frequently asked questions
How many goals does Jaroslav Chmelar have in 2026-27?
Jaroslav Chmelar has 1 goal and 1 point (0 assists) in 10 games in 2026-27.
How old is Jaroslav Chmelar?
Jaroslav Chmelar is 23 years old: he was born on July 20, 2003.
How tall is Jaroslav Chmelar, and how much does he weigh?
Jaroslav Chmelar is 6'5" (196 cm) and weighs 238 lb (108 kg).
Where is Jaroslav Chmelar from?
Czechia: Jaroslav Chmelar was born in Nove Mesto nad Metuji, Czechia.
What team does Jaroslav Chmelar play for?
Jaroslav Chmelar plays for the New York Rangers in the NHL, at R, wearing number 49.
Is Jaroslav Chmelar injured?
No: Jaroslav Chmelar is not on the latest NHL injury report. This answer is updated throughout the season.
How good is Jaroslav Chmelar?
Jaroslav Chmelar produced 0.6 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2025-26, 218th of 615 players at his position in the NHL. His PAL rating is 54 out of 100: around average for his position.
How much does Jaroslav Chmelar make?
Jaroslav Chmelar earns $868K for the 2025-26 season. His Value Rating is 72 out of 100 (good value): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position.
When does Jaroslav Chmelar's contract end?
Jaroslav Chmelar's contract runs through the 2026-27 season; he will then be a restricted free agent.
Is Jaroslav Chmelar overpaid?
No, he gives more than he costs. His Value rating is 72 out of 100 (good value), where 50 is the output expected for his salary, compared with players at his position.
Is Jaroslav Chmelar a top-10 player at his position?
No: by WAR, he ranks 218th of 615 players at his position in the NHL in 2025-26. Our comparison tool puts him side by side with any other player.
How has Jaroslav Chmelar played lately?
Over his last 10 games, Jaroslav Chmelar has 1 point (1 goal, 0 assists).
What are Jaroslav Chmelar's career stats?
Over his NHL career, Jaroslav Chmelar has 38 games, 5 goals, 2 assists and 7 points. His best season: 2025-26, with 6 points in 28 games.
Where was Jaroslav Chmelar drafted?
Jaroslav Chmelar was drafted 144th overall (round 5) by New York Rangers in 2021.
How does Jaroslav Chmelar perform in the playoffs?
Jaroslav Chmelar has not played in the NHL playoffs yet.
Which player is most similar to Jaroslav Chmelar?
Isak Rosen: he is the player at his position whose PAL profile (the 0-to-100 dimensions) is closest to his in 2025-26.
Isak Rosen's page →Is Jaroslav Chmelar a good fantasy pick?
Probably not, except in deep leagues: our projection has him at 6 points in 2026-27, or 0.15 points per game.
What is Jaroslav Chmelar's nationality?
Jaroslav Chmelar is Czech. Internationally: Czechia junior team: World Junior Championships 2022 and 2023; silver medal in 2023.
How many championships has Jaroslav Chmelar won?
1: Silver medal with Czechia at the 2023 World Junior Championships.
Where did Jaroslav Chmelar play before turning pro?
Junior teams in the Czech Republic (years not specified); Providence College — Providence Friars (2022–23 season).
How many points is Jaroslav Chmelar projected to score in 2026-27?
Our projection has him at 6 points in 39 games in 2026-27 (1 to 18 points, 80% interval), based on his recent seasons, age and role.
See also: his New York Rangers teammates
Full roster →
NHL.com ↗ · Stats and photos: NHL (NHL.com)