Skinner, Aho and Guentzel headline NHL’s most fairly paid contracts

Daily Faceoff has spotlighted ten NHL players whose 2026‑27 contracts line up almost perfectly with their current on‑ice impact. In the piece, writer Scott Maxwell uses a contract‑rating model that stacks up every player’s leaguewide value against their cap hit by position.

The list focuses on players whose contract rating sits closest to zero, meaning their ranking by performance is nearly identical to their ranking by salary. Slightly positive or negative scores are treated as ties, with the higher cap hit used as a tiebreaker when players have similar ratings.

Numbers back up Skinner’s value in goal

One of the most notable cases is goaltender Stuart Skinner. His reputation took a hit after being front and centre in two Stanley Cup Final losses with the Edmonton Oilers and for giving up the occasional soft goal. Underneath that perception, however, his underlying numbers point to a legitimate NHL tandem option.

From 2023 to 2026, Skinner posted a 54.1 percent quality‑start rate, a 5‑on‑5 save percentage of 90.46, and 25.6 goals saved above expected at 5‑on‑5. While his play has swung between hot and cold stretches, those results line up neatly with his status as the goalie carrying the 31st‑highest cap hit at his position.

Pettersson, Orlov and Terry viewed as fair deals

Defenceman Pettersson, first extended by the Vancouver Canucks and later traded to the New York Rangers, is highlighted as a rare shutdown defender paid right at his market value. His six‑year deal gives him the 76th‑highest cap hit among NHL blueliners, matching where the model slots his contribution thanks to first‑pair impacts in driving play and defending, even with only middle‑of‑the‑pack point totals.

Dmitry Orlov, now with the San Jose Sharks, is another veteran whose deal is labelled fair value. For years he was viewed as a standard top‑four defenceman despite underlying numbers that suggested a higher tier. He is no longer at that peak, but is coming off a 37‑point season with San Jose, and the model currently pegs him as the league’s 50th‑best defenceman while he carries the 51st‑highest cap hit at the position.

Up front, Troy Terry stands out as one of the few clean wins on a difficult 2026 off‑season for the Anaheim Ducks, who dealt with an aggressive offer‑sheet environment and several expensive commitments. A key piece of Anaheim’s rebuild, Terry has grown into a steady 55‑ to 65‑point producer when healthy, with defensive shortcomings offset by strong chance creation that the model views as worth exactly what he is being paid.

Top‑six forwards Aho, Guentzel and Lafreniere priced right

Alexis Lafreniere’s situation with the Rangers is described as a good fit between cost and upside after a non‑linear development path heavily influenced by the pandemic years. Early NHL seasons around 10 to 20 goals and 30 to 40 points were followed by a breakout 28‑goal, 57‑point campaign in 2023‑24 and then a dip that briefly made his long‑term deal look rich. A late‑season surge of 28 points in his final 27 games of 2025‑26, in a larger role, has restored the sense that his current cap hit is appropriate in a market where peers often earn roughly twice as much.

In Tampa Bay, the Lightning’s 2024 choice to move on from longtime captain Steven Stamkos and bring in Jake Guentzel is framed as a bold move that has paid off. Skating alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, Guentzel has produced 79 goals and 168 points in 161 games over his first two seasons with the club. Daily Faceoff’s model ranks him as the NHL’s 33rd‑best forward, while his salary comes in 34th at the position.

Sebastian Aho continues to define consistency for the Carolina Hurricanes. Since a 49‑point rookie year, his production has almost always fallen between 0.83 and 1.03 points per game, highlighted by an 89‑point season in 78 games in 2021‑22. He is rated as the league’s 26th‑best forward while owning the 27th‑highest cap hit up front, a balance that fits neatly with Carolina’s long‑standing emphasis on depth over a single headline superstar.