Maple Leafs’ top line dominates while second line stalls early

A small sample of the 2026‑27 season has already exposed a sharp divide between the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top two lines. At five‑on‑five, the Auston Matthews‑led first unit is driving play and generating quality looks, while the Gavin McKenna‑John Tavares‑William Nylander trio is spending far more time on its heels.

Marchenko‑Matthews‑Roslovic among NHL’s early standouts

The line of Kirill Marchenko, Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic has emerged as one of the league’s most dominant groups at even strength. Using numbers cited from analyst Mike Kelly, the trio owns a plus‑10 shot differential through three games, ranking fourth out of 40 lines that have logged at least 20 minutes together.

Their edge in high‑danger areas is even more pronounced. Marchenko, Matthews and Roslovic boast a plus‑14 edge in slot shots, the best figure among those same 40 combinations. Their expected goals share sits at 84.3 percent, ranking first and underscoring how thoroughly they are tilting the ice when they are on the shift.

The only metric that has not yet caught up is actual goals. Despite their territorial dominance, the trio’s goal differential sits at zero, putting them 15th out of the 40 lines in that category. Given how strong the underlying indicators are, the expectation is that finishing and raw production should follow if they continue to play this way.

McKenna‑Tavares‑Nylander buried in shot share and chances

The story flips when McKenna, Tavares and Nylander hop over the boards. At five‑on‑five, that group has a minus‑10 shot differential, ranking 39th of the 40 qualifying lines. In the slot, they sit dead last with a minus‑8 differential, a sign that they are giving up far more dangerous looks than they generate.

Their expected goals percentage is just 15.2 percent, also 40th out of 40, indicating that the balance of quality chances is heavily stacked against them. On the scoreboard the damage remains limited at minus‑3 in goals through three games, but the early trend is a concern for a unit Toronto expected to shoulder significant offensive responsibility.

On paper, pairing the highly touted McKenna with veterans Tavares and Nylander is built on complementary skill sets, not just point totals. Chemistry can take time, and the current results come from a tiny sample, yet the Maple Leafs need this line to find traction quickly if they hope to avoid overloading the Matthews unit.

Hiller’s early‑season puzzle on forward depth

Head coach Jim Hiller faces a tricky balancing act. Both the top line and the third line are performing well, limiting his willingness to pull pieces from either group to prop up the second unit. The staff does not want to overreact to a slow start, but also cannot ignore such lopsided underlying numbers if they persist.

For now, Toronto’s season can be framed as a tale of two lines: a first trio that looks like one of the NHL’s most dominant at five‑on‑five, and a second line that has yet to establish any rhythm. How Hiller and the Maple Leafs address that gap in the coming weeks will go a long way in shaping their push back to the playoffs.