Hellebuyck, Larkin face risk‑reward test as missed camps reshape seasons

As the 2026-27 NHL season gets underway, several prominent players are watching instead of playing. Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck has asked out, with a trade viewed as inevitable even if it does not appear close. In Carolina, defenceman Alexander Nikishin is in a similar situation but would require a new contract as part of any deal, adding another layer to the talks.

In Detroit, Simon Edvinsson’s file looks straightforward on paper: he is a restricted free agent waiting on either a bridge contract or a longer pact. The complication is in the front office. The Red Wings are still searching for a general manager, leaving interim GM Shawn Horcoff to handle negotiations, now at a distance with Edvinsson having returned to Sweden to skate. Horcoff also has to manage Dylan Larkin’s future. Larkin, like fellow U.S. Olympian Hellebuyck, has requested a trade but appears willing to play for Detroit while a deal is explored. He missed most of training camp with an injury, making it tougher to hit top gear quickly once he does return.

When missing camp doesn’t sink a season

Recent history shows that skipping camp is not always a death sentence for a season. Ahead of 2019-20, Matthew Tkachuk, then with the Calgary Flames, missed most of camp while negotiating after a 34-goal, 77-point year. He eventually agreed to a three-year, $21-million contract, following megadeals for Mitch Marner and Brayden Point that helped frame his market.

Despite the late arrival, Tkachuk was in the lineup on opening night and showed little rust. He recorded an assist in the opener, then piled up 10 goals and 19 points in his first 20 games. He added 42 points over his next 49 outings before the pandemic cut the season short. More recently, with the Florida Panthers, he missed all of camp and a large chunk of the schedule due to an ailment, yet still produced 34 points in 31 games on an injury-ravaged roster.

Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson offers another encouraging case. In 2022, he did not sign his four-year, $31-million deal until Oct. 6, after most of camp had passed. He did not miss any regular-season games, started with seven points in his first five, and never really slowed down, finishing with 109 points and a career-high 46 goals, then adding 18 points in 19 playoff games. He has since gone through another hard negotiation, signing a one-year, $12-million contract in late July after another strong season.

When rust and rhythm become season‑long problems

The other side of the ledger is far less forgiving. Boston Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman missed all of training camp in 2024-25 before landing an eight-year contract with an $8.25-million average annual value, making him one of the league’s highest-paid netminders. The price was missing opening night and starting slowly, allowing at least four goals in four of his first eight starts and winning just six games over the first two months.

Swayman finished that season with an .892 save percentage and a goals-against average above 3.00, ranking 92nd among qualified goaltenders in goals saved above expected. It was a sharp drop for a goalie with a .910 career save rate who rebounded the following season to finish second in the league in the same advanced metric. His struggles serve as a warning for Hellebuyck and any club considering a trade for him, especially given Hellebuyck’s age and the likelihood of adjusting to a new team without a full camp.

William Nylander’s 2018-19 season with the Toronto Maple Leafs remains the clearest outlier. He missed all of camp and the first two months while negotiating, finally agreeing to terms on Dec. 1, just under the deadline to play. The year went sideways: he managed only seven goals and 27 points in 54 games, or 0.5 points per game, compared to his 0.92 points-per-game career average. A three-time 40-goal scorer and three-time 30-goal scorer, he failed to even reach 10 goals that season.

Taken together, these cases paint a nuanced picture for Hellebuyck, Larkin, Edvinsson and Nikishin. Elite talent can sometimes overcome a lost camp and still drive a big year, especially when staying in a familiar system. But the risk of rust, lost rhythm and underperformance is real—particularly for an older goaltender likely to be learning a new team and structure on the fly once a trade finally materializes.