Yankees backed to extend ALDS in Game 3, but experts still favour Rays

The New York Yankees return home to Yankee Stadium on Wednesday night trying to keep their season alive against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the American League Division Series. After falling into a 2-0 hole, New York is one loss away from elimination in the best-of-five matchup, with first pitch set for 8 p.m. ET. Only 10 teams in MLB history have rallied from down 2-0 to win a division series.

The series has been lopsided so far. The Yankees were nearly no-hit in Game 1, then followed up with a sloppy defensive showing in Game 2 while their offence continued to sputter. Against that backdrop, a panel of CBS Sports writers offered their predictions for Game 3 and the rest of the matchup, with a common theme emerging: there is some optimism about Wednesday’s game, but little about New York’s odds of taking three straight.

Left-handers Fried and Rodón seen as Yankees’ best hope

Multiple analysts point to Max Fried’s start in Game 3 and the Rays’ weaker numbers against left-handed pitching as the main reason to believe the Yankees can extend the series. Tampa Bay’s offence has already produced against Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler, but the split between their performance versus righties and lefties is viewed as a potential edge for Fried, and possibly Carlos Rodón in a Game 4.

Home-road splits also work in New York’s favour. One writer notes that the Yankees were noticeably better offensively at Yankee Stadium than on the road during the regular season, suggesting a return to the Bronx could jolt a lineup that looked overmatched in Tampa Bay. Rays Game 3 starter Nick Martinez is highlighted as another possible opening for New York: while his overall season line is strong, he posted a higher ERA over his last nine starts, and the Yankees have already beaten him once, in a late-September outing.

Rays still viewed as favourites to close out series

On the bigger question of who advances, the panel largely leans toward Tampa Bay. One analyst frames the Yankees’ task in terms of basic probability: if the teams are roughly even, New York’s chance of winning three games in a row sits in the low teens. The Rays’ ability to make consistent contact and avoid strikeouts is cited as a critical advantage, particularly against a Yankee defence that has shown cracks for much of the year and again in Game 2.

Several writers also stress that if the series goes the distance, New York is likely to see Drew Rasmussen again, a pitcher they describe as both highly effective and a frequent problem for the Yankees. The managerial matchup is another talking point, with Kevin Cash viewed as having a tactical edge over Aaron Boone in terms of bullpen usage and in-game adjustments.

Overall, the consensus from the CBS Sports panel is that the Yankees have a credible path to surviving Game 3 behind Fried and the home crowd, and possibly even forcing a Game 4. A full three-game comeback, however, is widely regarded as unlikely, with most expecting the Rays to finish the job and move on to the next round.