Yankees, Guardians or Padres: who really has a path back in the Division Series?

Two games into each of the four 2026 Division Series matchups, three of them are already lopsided. The Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees all trail 2-0 in best-of-five sets, leaving each one a loss away from elimination. A recent analysis argues that while all three clubs are heavy underdogs to turn things around, their paths to an unlikely comeback are not created equal.

Historically, the odds are brutal. Only 10 teams have ever climbed out of a 2-0 hole in a five-game MLB postseason series, and it has happened just three times since 2003. The last club to pull it off was the 2017 Yankees, underscoring how rarely a script like this flips.

Guardians and Padres chasing different kinds of upsets

For the Guardians, the challenge is significant but the opponent is not overpowering on paper. The White Sox won 84 games in the regular season and have leaned heavily on bullpen-style pitching plans, yet they have opened October with a 4-0 record in road playoff games. Logic suggests that level of perfection will eventually cool, but Cleveland – itself an 85-win team – has not asserted clear superiority.

Cleveland can at least point to a potential Game 4 start from Parker Messick if it can extend the series by taking Game 3. The catch is that Messick already opened the series in Game 1, a contest the Guardians lost. Head-to-head trends in Chicago also favour the White Sox, who took four of six regular-season meetings at home, another sign that Cleveland faces a steep climb to flip the matchup on the South Side.

The Padres come home to Petco Park after their own pair of losses in Milwaukee. A built-in off day before Game 3 should reset their bullpen, and Nick Pivetta’s recent outing was encouraging. There is also a clear drop-off in the Brewers’ rotation once they move past Games 1 and 2 starters Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson.

Even so, the broader context tilts hard toward Milwaukee. The Brewers just rolled through a 103-win regular season and piled up late rallies along the way, creating a sense that they routinely find a way to win. Petco Park was electric during the Wild Card Series against the Cubs, but home-field energy may not be enough to swing a matchup this lopsided on paper.

Why the Yankees still look like the best comeback bet

Among the three teams in trouble, the Yankees still profile as the most likely to bounce back. They posted the best regular-season record and run differential of the group and demolished the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series by a combined 18-2 score. That underlying strength still matters in a short series, especially given how their remaining pitching lines up.

New York can send Max Fried to the mound for Game 3 of the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays, then follow with Carlos Rodón and a potential Game 5 combination of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler. Fried and Rodón are both left-handers, a notable edge given that Tampa Bay’s offence produced a significantly lower OPS against lefties than righties during the regular season.

The concern is that the Yankees’ offence looked broken at Tropicana Field, where the Rays’ staff completely controlled the bats. A return to the Bronx could help: New York’s OPS was meaningfully higher at home than on the road this year. Rays Game 3 starter Nick Martinez also showed some late-season vulnerability with a 4.24 ERA over his final nine starts, and the Yankees beat him on Sept. 22, even if that win was a low-scoring affair.

The evaluation ultimately pegs the Yankees as the clearest candidate for a rally, ahead of Cleveland and San Diego. Still, in light of postseason history and the series states, the most realistic expectation remains that all three clubs bow out in this round.