2026 MLB trends: who is rising, who is declining
The trend compares WAR per full season with the previous season's: only what was observed. Age forms the outlook, separately, on the player's page. The next-season projection follows this season's pace, adjusted for age. It is only a projection: it knows nothing about injuries, trades or role changes.
| # | Player | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac CaglianoneKC · RF · 23 | +36 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 17 | 23 |
| 2 | Keibert RuizWSH · C · 27 | +32 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF · 24 | +31 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 45 | 24 |
| 4 | Jordan WalkerSTL · RF · 24 | +30 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 24 | 24 |
| 5 | Luis ArraezPHI · 2B · 29 | +24 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 6 | 29 |
| 6 | Ty FranceSD · 1B · 31 | +24 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Michael Harris IIATL · CF · 25 | +24 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Miguel VargasCWS · 3B · 26 | +24 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 30 | 26 |
| 9 | Otto LopezMIA · SS · 27 | +22 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 10 | 27 |
| 10 | Ezequiel DuranTEX · SS · 27 | +22 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 12 | 27 |
| 11 | Michael MasseyKC · 2B · 28 | +22 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 10 | 28 |
| 12 | Joc PedersonTEX · DH · 34 | +21 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 21 | 34 |
| 13 | Brandon LowePIT · 2B · 31 | +21 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 31 | 31 |
| 14 | Oneil CruzPIT · CF · 27 | +21 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 23 | 27 |
| 15 | Randy ArozarenaSEA · LF · 31 | +21 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 26 | 31 |
| 16 | Brayan RocchioCLE · SS · 25 | +21 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 12 | 25 |
| 17 | Trevor LarnachMIN · LF · 29 | +20 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 15 | 29 |
| 18 | Yordan AlvarezHOU · DH · 29 | +20 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 26 | 29 |
| 19 | Angel MartínezCLE · LF · 24 | +20 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 20 | 24 |
| 20 | Chase MeidrothCWS · 2B · 24 | +19 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 15 | 24 |
| 21 | Joey OrtizMIL · SS · 27 | +18 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 10 | 27 |
| 22 | Nolan ArenadoAZ · 3B · 35 | +17 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 24 | 35 |
| 23 | Luis García Jr.NYY · 1B · 26 | +17 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 30 | 26 |
| 24 | Elly De La CruzCIN · SS · 24 | +17 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 33 | 24 |
| 25 | Brooks LeeMIN · 3B · 25 | +17 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 22 | 25 |
| 26 | Jake McCarthyCOL · LF · 28 | +16 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 10 | 28 |
| 27 | Adley RutschmanBOS · C · 28 | +16 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 12 | 28 |
| 28 | Seiya SuzukiCHC · RF · 31 | +16 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 26 | 31 |
| 29 | Josh JungTEX · 3B · 28 | +16 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 13 | 28 |
| 30 | Javier SanojaMIA · 3B · 23 | +15 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 10 | 23 |
| 31 | Jackson ChourioMIL · LF · 22 | +15 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 27 | 22 |
| 32 | Michael ConfortoCHC · DH · 33 | +14 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 18 | 33 |
| 33 | Leody TaverasBAL · CF · 27 | +14 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 5 | 27 |
| 34 | Dane MyersCIN · CF · 30 | +14 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 8 | 30 |
| 35 | Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B · 26 | +14 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 6 | 26 |
| 36 | Curtis MeadBOS · 3B · 25 | +14 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 15 | 25 |
| 37 | Cole YoungSEA · 2B · 22 | +14 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 13 | 22 |
| 38 | JJ BledayCIN · LF · 28 | +13 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 20 | 28 |
| 39 | Bryan ReynoldsPIT · LF · 31 | +13 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 16 | 31 |
| 40 | Colton CowserBAL · CF · 26 | +13 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 12 | 26 |
| 41 | Andrew VaughnMIL · 1B · 28 | +13 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 7 | 28 |
| 42 | Paul GoldschmidtNYY · 1B · 38 | +12 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 20 | 38 |
| 43 | Willson ContrerasBOS · 1B · 34 | +12 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 26 | 34 |
| 44 | Coby MayoBAL · 3B · 24 | +12 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 21 | 24 |
| 45 | Pete AlonsoBAL · 1B · 31 | +11 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 42 | 31 |
| 46 | Liam HicksTB · C · 27 | +11 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 15 | 27 |
| 47 | Andrés GiménezTOR · SS · 27 | +10 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 8 | 27 |
| 48 | Brice TurangMIL · 2B · 26 | +10 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 21 | 26 |
| 49 | Jake BurgerTEX · 1B · 30 | +10 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 22 | 30 |
| 50 | Casey SchmittSF · LF · 27 | +10 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 19 | 27 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
WAR per full season: per 600 PA (hitters), 180 IP (starters) or 65 IP (relievers). Outlook = trend + age points: +25 through 25, +10 through 28, −15 from 32 to 34, −30 after. Projection: this season's pace over the average of the last two workloads, ×1.05 through 25, ×0.97 from 30 to 32, ×0.93 after.
Data: MLB (statsapi) and Baseball Savant (Statcast).