Luka
Gavran
G
#1
Luka Gavran
#1G
Toronto FC
Height : 6' 6" · Weight : 201 lbs · Age : 26
MLS record
| Year | Team | FC | FA | RC | YC | OG | APP | SUB | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current season | Toronto FC | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Salary
Toronto FC payroll →- 2026 guaranteed comp.
- 249 k$
- Base salary
- 225 k$
- Rank on the club
- #14 of 24
Guaranteed compensation: base salary plus signing bonuses and other guaranteed money, annualized; performance bonuses are not included. Contract length is not made public.
Advanced stats, 2026 Goalkeepers
MLS stats →2026 season, in progress (2,782 minutes played). The percentile ranks the player among regular goalkeepers (1,000+ minutes over a full season): 90th means better than 90% of them.
Saves
92
79th percentile
Shots on target faced
143
Save percentage
64.3 %
50th percentile
Goals conceded
48
Goals allowed − xG faced
+4.3
13th percentile
g+ per 90
−0.09
24th percentile
Pass completion
67.5 %
10th percentile
Minutes
2,782
Regular season. Goals allowed − xG faced: below zero, he allowed fewer goals than the quality of the shots on target predicted (lower is better). g+: goals added, above the position average. Data: American Soccer Analysis.
2027 projection
MLS trends →Projected WAR
-0.3
Confidence: low · a goalkeeper's output swings a lot from season to season
Projected minutes
2,150
WAR 2026
-0.5
Minutes played
2,782
The pace of the last three seasons (WAR per minute, 60/25/15), pulled toward the group average as if 1,000 more minutes, over the minutes expected from the last two seasons, adjusted for age. Method chosen by backtest (2023 to 2026): mean error of 0.24 wins.
Trend
→ Stable (0)
- 20230.3 WAR · 2.26 per 3,000 min
- 2024-0.5 WAR · -1.64 per 3,000 min
- 2025-0.4 WAR · -3.88 per 3,000 min
- 2026-0.5 WAR · -0.54 per 3,000 min
The trend compares this season's WAR per 3,000 minutes with last season's (at least 500 minutes each), weighted by playing time. For goalkeepers, goals added swing a lot from season to season: read a strong trend with caution.
Outlook, age included
+10 · 26 y.o. · prime years
It is only a projection. It knows nothing about injuries, transfers or role changes.
Player ratings, 2026
All ratings →Ratings from 0 to 100, computed over four seasons from data, never by hand, against regulars in the same position group. 75 = established regular, 87 = 90th percentile, 95+ = elite. EX counts his MLS seasons since 2021, from our data: his career elsewhere is not included.
OV · Overall
59
Backup or prospect
- SAV
- Shot stopping
- 57
- DST
- Distribution
- 74
- CLM
- Claiming
- 78
- SWP
- Sweeping
- 80
- DUR
- Durability
- 67
- EX
- Experience
- 63
Why these ratings?Hide details
- SAV — Shot stopping : Goals allowed against post-shot expected goals, shot-stopping g+
- DST — Distribution : Goals added by distribution
- CLM — Claiming : Goals added by claiming crosses
- SWP — Sweeping : Goals added by sweeping
- DUR — Durability : Share of his club's minutes played, over several seasons
- EX — Experience : MLS seasons since 2021 (our data)
WAR and PAL Rating, 2026
How we rate →WAR: the goals added (g+) of each of his actions, above replacement level (the per-minute output of his group's fringe players), converted to standings points (0.64 points per goal), then to wins (3 points = one win). PAL Rating scores performance from 0 to 100 against regulars in the same group (50 = median).
WAR
-0.5
#27 of 35 regular goalkeepers
−2.6 goals above replacement
PAL Rating
27 / 100
#26 of 35 regular goalkeepers
Value Rating · 2026
Sporting contract value
28 / 100
The surplus: his 2026 WAR (-0.5) × the price of a win ($3.6M), minus his 2026 guaranteed compensation, against other goalkeepers. Commercial value (tickets, sponsors, media rights) is not counted.Salary$249KSurplus−$2.1MWAR paid0.07PAL: dimensions
Where WAR comes from (in wins)
Collecting loose balls and low crosses (counted with handling in his ratings).
Coming off his line to cut out a ball in behind.
Catching or punching crosses rather than leaving them in the box.
Holding the shot or parrying it without giving up a rebound.
Kicking and throwing: how his distribution changes his team's chances.
Goals prevented given the quality of the shots on target he faced.
The parts above are measured against the position average. This adjustment moves the baseline to a fringe player in his group, prorated by minutes: positive when fringe players do worse than average, negative when they do better.
Shot stopping drives almost all of a goalkeeper's WAR, and it swings a lot from season to season: one season says less than it does for an outfield player.
| Season | Team | Min | WAR | PAL | OV | Saves | Sv% | G − xG | g+/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 2,782 | -0.5 | 27 | 59 | 92 | 64.3 | +4.3 | −0.09 |
| 2025 | TOR | 309 | -0.4 | 11 | 35 | 6 | 66.7 | +1.6 | −0.49 |
| 2024 | TOR | 913 | -0.5 | 9 | 50 | 32 | 61.5 | +4.0 | −0.33 |
| 2023 | TOR | 398 | 0.3 | 71 | 81 | 20 | 62.5 | −0.8 | +0.12 |
Luka Gavran in five questions
What is Luka Gavran's record in 2026?
Luka Gavran has 92 saves and has conceded 48 goals in 2,782 minutes in 2026.
How old and how tall is Luka Gavran?
Luka Gavran is 26 years old. He is 6'6" (198 cm) and weighs 201 lb (91 kg).
How good is Luka Gavran?
Luka Gavran produced -0.5 wins above replacement (WAR) in 2026, 31st of 35 players at his position in the MLS. His PAL rating is 27 out of 100: below average for his position.
How much does Luka Gavran make?
Luka Gavran earns $249K for the 2026 season. His Value Rating (on-field contract efficiency) is 28 out of 100 (poor return): it measures the on-field return for that salary, compared with players at his position; the player's commercial value is not part of it.
What number does Luka Gavran wear, and what team does he play for?
Luka Gavran plays for Toronto FC in the MLS, at G, and wears number 1.
