Josh Allen and Bills’ 3-1 start raises red flags beneath the surface

The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 and sitting atop the AFC East, ahead of the New England Patriots, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. On paper, it looks like the start expected from a contender built around Josh Allen. A closer look at their opponents and the way those games have unfolded, however, suggests the record may be more flattering than the underlying performance.

Soft early schedule masks uneven performances

The three teams Buffalo has beaten so far have combined for only two wins this season, raising questions about how much their start really tells us. Houston, Detroit and the Los Angeles Chargers have all struggled, and yet the Bills have rarely delivered the kind of one-sided results usually associated with elite clubs facing bottom-tier opponents.

The opener against the winless Houston Texans set the tone. Despite eking out a narrow victory, Buffalo was outplayed in several key areas. Houston held the ball longer, moved the chains more efficiently on third and fourth down, finished drives at a higher rate in the red zone and generated more rushing yardage. For a presumed contender facing one of the worst teams in the league, it was anything but a statement win.

The following week brought a more comfortable 10-point win over the Detroit Lions, marking the Bills’ first victory in their new stadium and another big statistical outing from Allen, who notched the sixth five-touchdown game of his career. But Detroit stands as the only Bills opponent with a win this season, further underlining how forgiving the schedule has been.

Turnovers and pass defense undermine contender profile

Beyond quality of competition, Buffalo’s own sloppiness is a concern. Allen and the offense have been careless with the ball, while the pass defense ranks in the league’s bottom five. The Bills have allowed 29 or more points in three of their four games, a troubling sign for a team with championship aspirations.

The win over the 0-4 Chargers might be the most glaring example. Playing at home against a team widely viewed as one of the league’s most dysfunctional, the Bills turned it over five times, losing three fumbles and throwing two interceptions. Allen failed to record a passing touchdown, though he did score twice on the ground. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert posted his best passing-yardage total of the season against Buffalo, and Los Angeles produced one of its higher scoring outputs in what has otherwise been a disastrous start.

Home loss to struggling Patriots sharpens scrutiny

The lone blemish on Buffalo’s record came at home against the Patriots, the defending AFC champions who had spent the early part of the year being labeled as one of the NFL’s worst teams. New England arrived with an error-filled resume and a young quarterback, Drake Maye, under heavy criticism, yet left with a win that deepened doubts about Buffalo’s ceiling.

Maye entered the game with one touchdown and six interceptions but outperformed Allen, finishing with 269 passing yards, three scores, an interception and a fumble, plus productive rushing yardage. Allen countered with 253 yards through the air, one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown and a pick, but was less effective as a runner than his opposite number. The Patriots were missing standout corner Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore, yet still made Buffalo’s offense work for every yard.

New England had managed just 29 offensive points over its first three games combined and then matched that total in one afternoon against the Bills’ defense. A late drive capped by an acrobatic touchdown catch from Efton Chism put the Patriots ahead for good, and Allen’s interception in the final minutes ended Buffalo’s comeback hopes.

Next up is a road trip to face a struggling Los Angeles Rams team that just scraped past a shaky Philadelphia Eagles squad. Even if the Bills emerge at 4-1, their early slate will still feature opponents with a bleak collective record. For Buffalo to be viewed as a true Super Bowl threat, Allen and company will need to cut down on turnovers, shore up the secondary and show they can dominate more capable competition.