2025-26 NBA trends: who is rising, who is declining
The trend compares WAR per 2,000 minutes with last season's: only what was observed. The outlook adds age. The next-season projection follows this season's pace, adjusted for age; it is only a projection.
| # | Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephon CastleSAS · PG · 21 | +68 | +93 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 17.7 | 21 |
| 2 | Kawhi LeonardLAC · SF · 34 | +56 | +26 | 14.3 | 10.3 | 25.7 | 34 |
| 3 | Victor WembanyamaSAS · C · 22 | +52 | +77 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 26.5 | 22 |
| 4 | Javonte GreenDET · SG · 32 | +50 | +35 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 32 |
| 5 | Jamal MurrayDEN · PG · 28 | +48 | +48 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 25.4 | 28 |
| 6 | Mikal BridgesNYK · SF · 29 | +47 | +47 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 14.4 | 29 |
| 7 | Jaylen BrownBOS · SF · 29 | +47 | +47 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 28.7 | 29 |
| 8 | Alex SarrWAS · C · 20 | +47 | +72 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 17.3 | 20 |
| 9 | Keyonte GeorgeUTA · PG · 22 | +45 | +70 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 25.0 | 22 |
| 10 | Tyrese MaxeyPHI · PG · 25 | +44 | +54 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 28.9 | 25 |
| 11 | Moussa DiabatéCHA · C · 24 | +43 | +68 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 8.1 | 24 |
| 12 | Michael Porter Jr.BKN · SF · 27 | +40 | +50 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 24.2 | 27 |
| 13 | Ryan DunnPHX · SF · 23 | +37 | +62 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 23 |
| 14 | Simone FontecchioMIA · SF · 30 | +37 | +37 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 8.2 | 30 |
| 15 | Isaiah CollierUTA · PG · 21 | +36 | +61 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 12.4 | 21 |
| 16 | Donovan ClinganPOR · C · 21 | +36 | +61 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 12.8 | 21 |
| 17 | Luka DončićLAL · PG · 26 | +35 | +45 | 17.8 | 16.1 | 34.2 | 26 |
| 18 | Kyle KuzmaMIL · PF · 30 | +35 | +35 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 12.5 | 30 |
| 19 | Cade CunninghamDET · PG · 24 | +34 | +59 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 24.4 | 24 |
| 20 | Duncan RobinsonDET · SG · 31 | +34 | +19 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 11.7 | 31 |
| 21 | Julian ChampagnieSAS · SF · 24 | +34 | +59 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 11.3 | 24 |
| 22 | Kyshawn GeorgeWAS · SF · 22 | +34 | +59 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 15.7 | 22 |
| 23 | Neemias QuetaBOS · C · 26 | +34 | +44 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 10.4 | 26 |
| 24 | Keldon JohnsonSAS · SF · 26 | +33 | +43 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 13.5 | 26 |
| 25 | Reed SheppardHOU · SG · 21 | +32 | +57 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 14.3 | 21 |
| 26 | Ayo DosunmuMIN · SG · 26 | +32 | +42 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 15.1 | 26 |
| 27 | Deni AvdijaPOR · SF · 25 | +32 | +42 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 24.7 | 25 |
| 28 | Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · PG · 25 | +31 | +41 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 17.7 | 25 |
| 29 | Saddiq BeyNOP · SF · 26 | +31 | +41 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 26 |
| 30 | Lauri MarkkanenUTA · PF · 28 | +30 | +30 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 26.7 | 28 |
| 31 | Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · SG · 21 | +29 | +54 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 21 |
| 32 | Jalen JohnsonATL · SF · 24 | +29 | +54 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 23.0 | 24 |
| 33 | Oso IghodaroPHX · PF · 23 | +29 | +54 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 23 |
| 34 | De'Aaron FoxSAS · PG · 28 | +28 | +28 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 18.6 | 28 |
| 35 | Tristan Da SilvaORL · SF · 24 | +28 | +53 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 24 |
| 36 | Grayson AllenPHX · SG · 30 | +27 | +27 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 15.8 | 30 |
| 37 | Scottie BarnesTOR · PF · 24 | +27 | +52 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 18.5 | 24 |
| 38 | Kel'el WareMIA · C · 21 | +27 | +52 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 11.8 | 21 |
| 39 | Jusuf NurkićUTA · C · 31 | +27 | +12 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 10.5 | 31 |
| 40 | Devin BookerPHX · SG · 29 | +26 | +26 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 26.1 | 29 |
| 41 | Paul GeorgePHI · PF · 35 | +26 | -4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 15.9 | 35 |
| 42 | Davion MitchellMIA · PG · 27 | +24 | +34 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 9.3 | 27 |
| 43 | Jamal SheadTOR · PG · 23 | +24 | +49 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 7.0 | 23 |
| 44 | Ajay MitchellOKC · SG · 23 | +24 | +49 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 14.4 | 23 |
| 45 | Jalen DurenDET · C · 22 | +24 | +49 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 20.7 | 22 |
| 46 | Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL · SG · 27 | +23 | +33 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 20.8 | 27 |
| 47 | Devin VassellSAS · SG · 25 | +23 | +33 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 14.2 | 25 |
| 48 | Jerami GrantPOR · PF · 31 | +23 | +8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 17.9 | 31 |
| 49 | Jalen SuggsORL · PG · 24 | +22 | +47 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 14.1 | 24 |
| 50 | Trey Murphy IIINOP · SF · 25 | +22 | +32 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 21.9 | 25 |
How it's calculatedHide the method
Trend = gap in WAR per 2,000 minutes × 15 × reliability (minutes ÷ (minutes + 1,000)), capped at ±100. Outlook = trend + age points: +25 through 24, +10 through 27, −15 from 31 to 33, −30 after. Projection: the pace over the average minutes of the last two seasons (2,900 at most), ×1.06 through 24, ×0.96 from 31 to 33, ×0.92 after.
Data: Basketball-Reference and ESPN.