McDavid and Matthews headline race to NHL’s first $30-million contract

The NHL’s rapidly rising salary cap is reshaping the market for star players and fuelling speculation about when the league will see its first $30-million-a-year contract. A report from Sportsnet insider Elliotte Friedman projects the cap jumping from $104 million to $127.5 million over the next two years, a jump big enough to make this summer’s record deals look relatively modest.

Within that environment, several mega-contracts signed in recent months already appear like early entries in a new financial era. Colorado Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar set a new standard by becoming the NHL’s first $20-million-per-season player on an eight-year, $163.2-million extension, yet his stay as the league’s highest earner may prove short-lived.

Celebrini, Carlsson and Makar push salary ceiling higher

The race to the top of the pay scale has moved quickly. San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini briefly owned the highest cap hit at roughly $18.8 million per year, edging out Anaheim Ducks star Leo Carlsson, who sits at $18 million annually after signing a five-year, $90-million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers that Anaheim chose to match. Only weeks later, Makar surpassed both with his record-setting extension.

Celebrini acknowledged that his camp negotiated with an eye on what the cap is expected to become, saying they looked closely at projections and tried to land on a number that fit where the league is headed. Carlsson admitted he was initially surprised by his own deal but quickly came to see it as a reflection of the NHL’s direction, adding that he’s accustomed to the expectations that come with his draft status and now his contract.

The surge in top-end salaries has also driven up deals for younger names such as Trevor Zegras and Ryan Leonard, who are being paid not just for present production but for what teams believe they will deliver as the cap continues to rise. That approach will inevitably intensify scrutiny on contracts that are heavily based on projection.

McDavid, Matthews and the $30-million question

With the cap potentially rising by about $23.5 million between now and 2028-29, the league is closing in on salary levels that once seemed impossible. Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid and Toronto Maple Leafs centre Auston Matthews are both scheduled to reach unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2028, as is Columbus Blue Jackets defenceman Zach Werenski, setting up a pivotal moment for the next wave of record deals.

It has taken less than two years for the highest individual cap hit to jump from around $15 million to $20 million, during a period when the overall cap increased by $16 million. If Friedman’s projection holds and the ceiling climbs even faster in the next two years, a $25-million or even $30-million cap hit for an elite player becomes a realistic talking point rather than a distant fantasy.

From the early cap era to today’s mega deals

The current landscape is a far cry from the first year of the salary cap in 2005-06, when the limit was set at $39 million and Jaromir Jagr carried the league’s top cap hit at roughly $8.36 million. Sidney Crosby has played 18 seasons with a cap hit around $8.7 million, a figure that now trails well behind the newest generation of mega-contracts.

Crosby has noted that the market simply evolves, pointing to recent offer sheets and blockbuster extensions as major forces in shifting expectations. As more stars and emerging talents sign deals calibrated to a cap that is still climbing, the question facing teams and players alike is no longer whether the NHL will have a $30-million man, but which superstar will claim that milestone first — and how quickly the market will adjust once it happens.